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Thread: CVCX - Change Risk of Ruin

  1. #1


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    CVCX - Change Risk of Ruin

    I have trouble to get into practical use of CVCX despite having read the manual. First, I want to analyze the CVCX features for the KO Preferred counting system before setting up a sim for my own counting system. So I chose

    Open an Archived Sim
    Included Simulations
    KO Preferred
    View

    and looked at the data in the "Bankroll/Risk" tab. The default Risk of Ruin was 13.5 percent (Kelly factor 1.0). Since this is way too high, I changed the RoR to 1 percent (Kelly factor 0.43). But the results in the bottom rows didn't change, and the RoR is 5.2 percent rather than the desired 1 percent.

    The "Bankroll/Risk" tab shows a help ballon saying s.th. about "This is an Advanced Option specified on the Options tab" (see attached screenshots). But I have no glue where to find this "Options tab" and to change the desired RoR in a way that it affects the results. Or is it necessary to rerun the whole simulation for KO Preferred for the new RoR of 1 percent?

    CVCXRiskOfRuin.jpg

    CVCXRiskOfRuinHelpBalloon.jpg
    Last edited by PinkChip; 06-28-2020 at 03:25 PM.

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    You are attempting to obtain a 1% RoR with an insufficient bankroll. It simply isn't possible with the game as defined.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Thanks Norm for the quick reply!

    I had the Vancura/Fuchs book in mind, which on page 79 contains the rule of thumb "bankroll should be about 100 max bets" (in the previous example, I had entered bankroll = 5000, max bet = 50, min bet = 5, spread = 1:10, 6 decks into CVCX). And on page 107, there is a chart claiming that a bankroll of 1000 units reduces the RoR to about 1 percent. But later I realized that the chart is for Double Deck, not six decks.

    Today, I played around with CVCX using the same parameters as in the book page 107 as far as possible (Double Deck, S 17, 75 percent pen, DOA, no DAS, 1:5 spread). Unfortunately, the book does not say if RSA is allowed, and how many players at the table. However, I tried out different desired RoRs (see screenshots). If I understand the user scenario correctly, I have to enter the decks, rules, pen, bankroll and _desired_ RoR. The CVCX simulation then computes an optimal betting scheme to _approximate_ this RoR. But the resulting RoR can still be quite different from the desired RoR. Also, the proposed min (and max) bet can change, as long as I do not set "Manually Adjust Min Bet". (If I do set this option, the box for entering the desired RoR disappears).

    For example, if I set 5000 dollar bankroll and 1 to 5 spread, and then a desired ROR of 2 percent, CVCX suggests a bet ramp from 5 to 25 dollars, which leads to a very low 0.3 percent RoR, which is six times lower than originally desired:

    CVCX_DoubleDeck_RiskOfRuin_02_percent_Spread_05_to_25.jpg

    If I slightly increase the desired RoR from 2 to 3 percent, CVCX suddenly suggests a bet ramp from 10 to 50 dollars (doubling min and max bet and also win rate). But the RoR then climbs to 6 percent, which is twice as much as originally desired:

    CVCX_DoubleDeck_RiskOfRuin_03_percent_Spread_10_to_50.jpg

    Am I missing something and doing wrong? I just am not sure, but intend to play around some more with CVCX (testing how different decks, rules and bankroll affect the results).
    Last edited by PinkChip; 06-29-2020 at 02:34 PM.

  4. #4
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    You have set limitations on bankroll the bets as multiples of $5 and a RoR. That combination simply isn't possible. So, it does the best it can.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  5. #5


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    You are right, if I reduce the Min Chip Size to 1 or 2 dollars, the resulting RoR is nearly exactly equal to the desired RoR of 3 percent:

    CVCX_DoubleDeck_RiskOfRuin_03_percent_Spread_10_to_50_bet_resolution_2_dollars.jpg

    But as the software says, betting unusual amount might look suspicious :-)

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