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Thread: Chance of dealer busting of each upcard at various index count

  1. #11
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    This is one player. The chart at the top shows the bust rate for 1, 3, and 6 players.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  2. #12
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    This is 1, 3, and 6 players. I ran it also with dealer always completes, and it was imperceptibly different from 6 players. This is six decks, S17.

    dbust1.jpg
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  3. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    This is 1, 3, and 6 players. I ran it also with dealer always completes, and it was imperceptibly different from 6 players. This is six decks, S17.

    dbust1.jpg
    Better! But why are the negative and positive counts reversed on the horizontal axis? You didn't do that for one player.

    And right, all six players at a table don't usually bust on the same round!

    Don

  4. #14
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Forgot to sort. Besides, I only care about positive numbers.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  5. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by PromVRT View Post
    Bust rate lower at higher count? This sounds conflicting. I think bust rate at higher count is supposed to be higher because the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count. For the ace and ten, she is not supposed to bust regardless.
    Don't know if this was answered directly anywhere else in the subsequent posts, but here is the explanation. The first part of what you wrote is correct, namely: "... the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count." But you failed to continue: However, since the count is high, the dealer frequency of 2-6 upcards is much lower than usual and the higher upcards, like T and Ace, are much more likely. This latter phenomenon more than offsets the former, such that, overall, with higher counts, dealers are less likely, by about 2-3%, to bust.

    Clear?

    Don

  6. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Don't know if this was answered directly anywhere else in the subsequent posts, but here is the explanation. The first part of what you wrote is correct, namely: "... the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count." But you failed to continue: However, since the count is high, the dealer frequency of 2-6 upcards is much lower than usual and the higher upcards, like T and Ace, are much more likely. This latter phenomenon more than offsets the former, such that, overall, with higher counts, dealers are less likely, by about 2-3%, to bust.

    Clear?

    Don
    Excellent. Did not realize it, thought they busted just as often....

  7. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Don't know if this was answered directly anywhere else in the subsequent posts, but here is the explanation. The first part of what you wrote is correct, namely: "... the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count." But you failed to continue: However, since the count is high, the dealer frequency of 2-6 upcards is much lower than usual and the higher upcards, like T and Ace, are much more likely. This latter phenomenon more than offsets the former, such that, overall, with higher counts, dealers are less likely, by about 2-3%, to bust.

    Clear?

    Don
    I see the point. Sometimes at high count I get many 12-16 against 7 up and these are even more horrible against high count (no surrender offered), I don't even want to look at the table after hitting at over +3, waiting to hear "Too many". Some sessions can be very frustrating if BJ does not come over to me and I realize getting 20 against a picture is less and less worthy at high count that I have to keep pushing and pushing and the count falls by 4 without doing any good.

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