Chance of dealer busting of each upcard at various index count

[PromVRT]

Assuming hi-lo count system, are there any publications of the chance of dealer busting as the count increases or decreases?
I only know the chance for neutral shoe. If anyone knows please provide me.

Many thanks in advance

[DSchles]

Norm has charts in Modern Blackjack. Perhaps he'll post them. The dealer bust rate is very steady across all counts at about 28% for playable hands. It is slightly lower in higher counts, but only by about one or two percent.

Don

[Freightman]

It is slightly lower in higher counts, but only by about one or two percent.

Don

Especially with an ace poor deck?

[aceside]

Especially with an ace poor deck?

I agree with you. The dealers’ bust rate critically depends on the density of aces in the remaining deck. The more aces, the less likely the dealer will bust; therefore, a player should play one hands. Otherwise, play two hands when TC>+1. I proposed this technique a year ago to seek you guys confirmation, but to no avail.

[PromVRT]

Norm has charts in Modern Blackjack. Perhaps he'll post them. The dealer bust rate is very steady across all counts at about 28% for playable hands. It is slightly lower in higher counts, but only by about one or two percent.

Don

Bust rate lower at higher count? This sounds conflicting. I think bust rate at higher count is supposed to be higher because the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count. For the ace and ten, she is not supposed to bust regardless.

[DSchles]

Bust rate lower at higher count? This sounds conflicting. I think bust rate at higher count is supposed to be higher because the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count. For the ace and ten, she is not supposed to bust regardless.

Don't know if this was answered directly anywhere else in the subsequent posts, but here is the explanation. The first part of what you wrote is correct, namely: "... the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count." But you failed to continue: However, since the count is high, the dealer frequency of 2-6 upcards is much lower than usual and the higher upcards, like T and Ace, are much more likely. This latter phenomenon more than offsets the former, such that, overall, with higher counts, dealers are less likely, by about 2-3%, to bust.

Clear?

Don

[ZeeBabar]

Don't know if this was answered directly anywhere else in the subsequent posts, but here is the explanation. The first part of what you wrote is correct, namely: "... the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count." But you failed to continue: However, since the count is high, the dealer frequency of 2-6 upcards is much lower than usual and the higher upcards, like T and Ace, are much more likely. This latter phenomenon more than offsets the former, such that, overall, with higher counts, dealers are less likely, by about 2-3%, to bust.

Clear?

Don

Excellent. Did not realize it, thought they busted just as often....

[PromVRT]

Don't know if this was answered directly anywhere else in the subsequent posts, but here is the explanation. The first part of what you wrote is correct, namely: "... the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count." But you failed to continue: However, since the count is high, the dealer frequency of 2-6 upcards is much lower than usual and the higher upcards, like T and Ace, are much more likely. This latter phenomenon more than offsets the former, such that, overall, with higher counts, dealers are less likely, by about 2-3%, to bust.

Clear?

Don

I see the point. Sometimes at high count I get many 12-16 against 7 up and these are even more horrible against high count (no surrender offered), I don't even want to look at the table after hitting at over +3, waiting to hear "Too many". Some sessions can be very frustrating if BJ does not come over to me and I realize getting 20 against a picture is less and less worthy at high count that I have to keep pushing and pushing and the count falls by 4 without doing any good.

[Freightman]

Don't know if this was answered directly anywhere else in the subsequent posts, but here is the explanation. The first part of what you wrote is correct, namely: "... the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count." But you failed to continue: However, since the count is high, the dealer frequency of 2-6 upcards is much lower than usual and the higher upcards, like T and Ace, are much more likely. This latter phenomenon more than offsets the former, such that, overall, with higher counts, dealers are less likely, by about 2-3%, to bust.

Clear?

Don

Granted, bust rate is lower as a whole which you’ve clarified. However, the relevancy is to the play at hand. Dealer rates to bust more often when holding, in descending order - 6,5,4,3,2.

[Dog Hand]

Assuming hi-lo count system, are there any publications of the chance of dealer busting as the count increases or decreases?
I only know the chance for neutral shoe. If anyone knows please provide me.

Many thanks in advance

PromVRT,

Here you go! The second graph gives the information you requested.

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...20ratep=226368

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[davethebuilder]

Link doesn't work.

[PromVRT]

Link doesn't work.

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ncy-vs-HiLo-TC

This one works. Many thanks to Dog hand

But I'll try the sim anyway as I play S17 games, the chance of busting is less, especially 6 upcard where some busts are replaced by dealer soft 17.

[aceside]

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ncy-vs-HiLo-TC

This one works. Many thanks to Dog hand

But I'll try the sim anyway as I play S17 games, the chance of busting is less, especially 6 upcard where some busts are replaced by dealer soft 17.

Norm explained this very well: The more players, the more likely the dealer must complete his hand, no matter what; however, this brought up a can of worms. In the above simulated dealer’s bust rate from Dog Hand, does the dealer complete all her hands?