See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 13 of 57

Thread: Chance of dealer busting of each upcard at various index count

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Chance of dealer busting of each upcard at various index count

    Assuming hi-lo count system, are there any publications of the chance of dealer busting as the count increases or decreases?
    I only know the chance for neutral shoe. If anyone knows please provide me.

    Many thanks in advance

  2. #2


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Norm has charts in Modern Blackjack. Perhaps he'll post them. The dealer bust rate is very steady across all counts at about 28% for playable hands. It is slightly lower in higher counts, but only by about one or two percent.

    Don

  3. #3


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    It is slightly lower in higher counts, but only by about one or two percent.

    Don
    Especially with an ace poor deck?
    Last edited by Freightman; 05-22-2020 at 06:08 PM. Reason: Change rich to poor

  4. #4


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by PromVRT View Post
    Assuming hi-lo count system, are there any publications of the chance of dealer busting as the count increases or decreases?
    I only know the chance for neutral shoe. If anyone knows please provide me.

    Many thanks in advance
    PromVRT,

    Here you go! The second graph gives the information you requested.

    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...20ratep=226368

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  5. #5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Link doesn't work.
    Casino Enemy No.1

  6. #6


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by PromVRT View Post
    Assuming hi-lo count system, are there any publications of the chance of dealer busting as the count increases or decreases?
    I only know the chance for neutral shoe. If anyone knows please provide me.

    Many thanks in advance
    CVdata may be what your looking for

    https://www.qfit.com/downloads.htm
    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

  7. #7


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Norm has charts in Modern Blackjack. Perhaps he'll post them. The dealer bust rate is very steady across all counts at about 28% for playable hands. It is slightly lower in higher counts, but only by about one or two percent.

    Don
    Bust rate lower at higher count? This sounds conflicting. I think bust rate at higher count is supposed to be higher because the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count. For the ace and ten, she is not supposed to bust regardless.

  8. #8
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    12,461
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Depends on number of players. See the third chart here: https://www.blackjackincolor.com/useless2.htm
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  9. #9


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by davethebuilder View Post
    Link doesn't work.
    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ncy-vs-HiLo-TC

    This one works. Many thanks to Dog hand

    But I'll try the sim anyway as I play S17 games, the chance of busting is less, especially 6 upcard where some busts are replaced by dealer soft 17.

  10. #10


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Comments and questions on each of the above charts:

    1. Norm, why does the bust rate show at about 23% and not the traditional 28.6%? I see two possibilities: 1) This is for BEFORE the dealer checks for a natural under tens and aces; and/or 2) This is for a lone player, where the dealer doesn't complete his hand if the player breaks. Note that the footnote says for 1, 3, and 6 players. But there's only one graph! And, I'm guessing that it's for a lone player.

    2. For Dog Hand, while the charts are great, NONE actually shows the global dealer bust rate against ALL upcards combined, according to true count. And, I think that was the OP's question. Norm's chart shows this, but with the objections I have mentioned above.

    So, to conclude, what I'd like to see is a graph of the dealer's global bust rate, across all counts, for PLAYABLE hands, where the dealer is required to complete his hand. (I know what the graph looks like, but I still haven't seen it anywhere here.)

    Don

  11. #11
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    12,461
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    This is one player. The chart at the top shows the bust rate for 1, 3, and 6 players.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  12. #12
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    12,461
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    This is 1, 3, and 6 players. I ran it also with dealer always completes, and it was imperceptibly different from 6 players. This is six decks, S17.

    dbust1.jpg
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  13. #13


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    This is 1, 3, and 6 players. I ran it also with dealer always completes, and it was imperceptibly different from 6 players. This is six decks, S17.

    dbust1.jpg
    Better! But why are the negative and positive counts reversed on the horizontal axis? You didn't do that for one player.

    And right, all six players at a table don't usually bust on the same round!

    Don

Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Odds of dealer busting with 13 is ~ 52%, right?
    By LukizKing in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 11-19-2019, 10:19 AM
  2. BJ immediately wins regardless of dealer's upcard . . .
    By James989 in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 05-03-2017, 04:41 AM
  3. busting percentages for dealer by count
    By jamesrav in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 02-22-2015, 05:35 PM
  4. Order of dealer upcard and holecard?
    By PinkChip in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 06-09-2012, 03:40 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.