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Thread: Chance of dealer busting of each upcard at various index count

  1. #1


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    Chance of dealer busting of each upcard at various index count

    Assuming hi-lo count system, are there any publications of the chance of dealer busting as the count increases or decreases?
    I only know the chance for neutral shoe. If anyone knows please provide me.

    Many thanks in advance

  2. #2


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    Norm has charts in Modern Blackjack. Perhaps he'll post them. The dealer bust rate is very steady across all counts at about 28% for playable hands. It is slightly lower in higher counts, but only by about one or two percent.

    Don

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    It is slightly lower in higher counts, but only by about one or two percent.

    Don
    Especially with an ace poor deck?
    Last edited by Freightman; 05-22-2020 at 06:08 PM. Reason: Change rich to poor

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by PromVRT View Post
    Assuming hi-lo count system, are there any publications of the chance of dealer busting as the count increases or decreases?
    I only know the chance for neutral shoe. If anyone knows please provide me.

    Many thanks in advance
    PromVRT,

    Here you go! The second graph gives the information you requested.

    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...20ratep=226368

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  5. #5


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    Link doesn't work.
    Casino Enemy No.1

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by PromVRT View Post
    Assuming hi-lo count system, are there any publications of the chance of dealer busting as the count increases or decreases?
    I only know the chance for neutral shoe. If anyone knows please provide me.

    Many thanks in advance
    CVdata may be what your looking for

    https://www.qfit.com/downloads.htm
    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Norm has charts in Modern Blackjack. Perhaps he'll post them. The dealer bust rate is very steady across all counts at about 28% for playable hands. It is slightly lower in higher counts, but only by about one or two percent.

    Don
    Bust rate lower at higher count? This sounds conflicting. I think bust rate at higher count is supposed to be higher because the high card gives higher probability to bust the dealer more often when dealer has 2-6, which is also why players always stand against low cards at high count. For the ace and ten, she is not supposed to bust regardless.

  8. #8
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Depends on number of players. See the third chart here: https://www.blackjackincolor.com/useless2.htm
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by davethebuilder View Post
    Link doesn't work.
    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ncy-vs-HiLo-TC

    This one works. Many thanks to Dog hand

    But I'll try the sim anyway as I play S17 games, the chance of busting is less, especially 6 upcard where some busts are replaced by dealer soft 17.

  10. #10


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    Comments and questions on each of the above charts:

    1. Norm, why does the bust rate show at about 23% and not the traditional 28.6%? I see two possibilities: 1) This is for BEFORE the dealer checks for a natural under tens and aces; and/or 2) This is for a lone player, where the dealer doesn't complete his hand if the player breaks. Note that the footnote says for 1, 3, and 6 players. But there's only one graph! And, I'm guessing that it's for a lone player.

    2. For Dog Hand, while the charts are great, NONE actually shows the global dealer bust rate against ALL upcards combined, according to true count. And, I think that was the OP's question. Norm's chart shows this, but with the objections I have mentioned above.

    So, to conclude, what I'd like to see is a graph of the dealer's global bust rate, across all counts, for PLAYABLE hands, where the dealer is required to complete his hand. (I know what the graph looks like, but I still haven't seen it anywhere here.)

    Don

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