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Thread: Desireabitily index, rounds per hour, calculation

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    Desireabitily index, rounds per hour, calculation

    Hi there,

    I am reading Advanced Advantage Plays. According to page 294,

    2 deck, 29 cards cut from the end has a DI of 9.9
    6 deck, 52 cards cut from the end has a DI of 5.4

    Now onto baccarat, there are sidebets that offer a DI greater than both of the ones listed above.

    Although that is the case, wouldn't blackjack counting be preferred due to the likelihood that baccarat is more often than not dealt at a snail's pace?

    Does this affect the DI at all?

    If theres a heads up game of blackjack available, should that be prioritized over the full baccarat table? Even though the DI is greater for the baccarat side bet?

  2. #2
    Junior Member Eliot's Avatar
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    In general blackjack card counting is among the least desirable ways to beat a casino. Along with 60 years of experience in identifying and catching card counters, there are the challenges of becoming proficient, the deterioration of the games and the rather wicked variance. I wrote an article discussing this topic here:

    https://www.888casino.com/blog/seven...er-count-cards

    That said, very few side bets of any type are better, mainly because of the low maximum wagers that are allowed. If you can master the baccarat Pairs bet then that is substantially better than ordinary card counting. Likewise, if you live in England and have access to the UR Way Egalite side bet, then you have a very strong option. But, in general, top players find much better opportunities than to card count anything at all. I've been out of the loop for a few years now, but I still would imagine hole-carding Mississippi Stud, Ultimate Texas Hold'em and similar games are among the strongest choices. Like many things in life, if you have a substantial enough bankroll then even better options are available, some of which I discuss in my book.

    I continue to wonder why would-be advantage players focus 99% on card counting, a technology that dates back to the 1960's, when the world of advantage play is well into the 21-st century.

    Kind regards.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eliot View Post
    In general blackjack card counting is among the least desirable ways to beat a casino. Along with 60 years of experience in identifying and catching card counters, there are the challenges of becoming proficient, the deterioration of the games and the rather wicked variance. I wrote an article discussing this topic here:

    https://www.888casino.com/blog/seven...er-count-cards

    That said, very few side bets of any type are better, mainly because of the low maximum wagers that are allowed. If you can master the baccarat Pairs bet then that is substantially better than ordinary card counting. Likewise, if you live in England and have access to the UR Way Egalite side bet, then you have a very strong option. But, in general, top players find much better opportunities than to card count anything at all. I've been out of the loop for a few years now, but I still would imagine hole-carding Mississippi Stud, Ultimate Texas Hold'em and similar games are among the strongest choices. Like many things in life, if you have a substantial enough bankroll then even better options are available, some of which I discuss in my book.

    I continue to wonder why would-be advantage players focus 99% on card counting, a technology that dates back to the 1960's, when the world of advantage play is well into the 21-st century.

    Kind regards.
    Interesting. I think people prefer card counting because it can be done locally and because a game is always available. My assumption is that hole-carding and such are dealer dependent, may need a lot of scouting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Interesting. I think people prefer card counting because it can be done locally and because a game is always available. My assumption is that hole-carding and such are dealer dependent, may need a lot of scouting.
    If both options were available, nobody in their right mind would count BJ. EV is so much higher and heat is almost non-existent with HCing.
    You are right about dealer dependent and scouting.

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    Junior Member Eliot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Interesting. I think people prefer card counting because it can be done locally and because a game is always available. My assumption is that hole-carding and such are dealer dependent, may need a lot of scouting.
    By "people" I think you are referring to yourself. The question is one of motivation. If you are a hobby player then do whatever you like to do. If you already know card counting and that's your thing, then by all means, count cards. However, if you are playing for a professional income then exposing yourself to the scrutiny that card counting brings makes the method among the least desirable.

    When I was playing as a red-chipper, I could spot a card counter at the table with me in just a few hands -- I think most agree that it's very easy. However, the person who was hole-carding went entirely unnoticed by me, more than once. On a gig in 2015 it took me about 15 minutes to figure out a team was Ace sequencing, the casino had been trying to figure it out for weeks. Likewise for the "split for less" teams, the "edge sorting" teams and others.

    I suppose, in retrospect, what irritates me the most today are the websites and books that try and sell blackjack card counting as the way to beat casinos -- the people who suck money from would-be advantage players selling them the false hope of blackjack card counting as a serious money maker. Sadly there are those who still hype such services and charge a pretty penny (not Norm or Don, who mostly give it away -- kudos to them). To anyone new to the idea that casinos can be beaten, I'd suggest just about any other method.
    Last edited by Eliot; 05-21-2020 at 01:04 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eliot View Post
    "split for less"
    Please explain.

    Also, if you don't mind me asking, what are you doing professionally these days? Are you still consulting for casinos?

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    Junior Member Eliot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Please explain.

    Also, if you don't mind me asking, what are you doing professionally these days? Are you still consulting for casinos?
    In certain jurisdictions internationally (and I believe in California card rooms) there is a way to split for less, using a team approach. That adds about 0.18% to the player side. That's enough if the game rules and other perks are generous.

    I fully retired in October, 2017. Once in a while I take a phone call or answer an email, always for free. I gave a guest lecture at Rutgers U. to their Statistics dept. last November. I was surprised to find a green chipper I met at one of the green chip parties back in about 2002 in attendance. That made it extra fun. I finally got my book Advanced Advantage Play out again (after my publisher died) so that's generating a bit of passive income.

    As for what I'm doing, well, I play quite a bit of music, lots of online chess, volunteer a lot, take long walks and enjoy being a husband and grandfather. I also like to learn new stuff, usually some tidbit from physics or math. Most recently, I have been puzzling over whether there is any easy proof of the "ABC Conjecture" when restricted to the Fibonacci numbers. If there is, it has stumped me -- maybe 20 years ago I could have figured it out.
    Last edited by Eliot; 05-21-2020 at 03:31 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eliot View Post
    In certain jurisdictions internationally (and I believe in California card rooms) there is a way to split for less, using a team approach. That adds about 0.18% to the player side. That's enough if the game rules and other perks are generous.
    Gotcha. I actually participated in this in the early days of Foxwoods when they allowed backlining, but wasn't familiar with that term. Player in the chair would bet small and big betting backliner had the option of betting on one hand after a split.

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    Junior Member Eliot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Gotcha. I actually participated in this in the early days of Foxwoods when they allowed backlining, but wasn't familiar with that term. Player in the chair would bet small and big betting backliner had the option of betting on one hand after a split.
    Yes.

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    Hi Eliot,

    Just a random question for you. Would you happen to know what the average rounds per hour of a baccarat game would be?

    In your book, theres a section on 3CP, page 317 where you estimated that your friend would play 3CP at about 40 hands per hour. Blackjack is benchmarked at about 100 RPH. Where do you feel baccarat stands?

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