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Thread: Blackjack Loss with counting in Online Casino

  1. #1


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    Unhappy Blackjack Loss with counting in Online Casino

    Dear all members,

    I have been playing online blackjack in an online casino (prefer not to tell which one) in order to gain advantage based on casino new player welcome bonus.
    I calculate based on the house edge (approximately 0.50%, 8-deck S17 DAS NHC no surrender) and I figured out that I have positive expectation in overall compared to the bonus offered.

    I followed all basic strategy with minimum £5 bet all the time. I always hit 12 vs 3 in neutral count, never stand on 14-16 against high card in general (and bust most of the time), always double down soft hands vs weak upcards, double 10 against 9 in neutral to positive count, hit A7 vs face and never take any insurance in neutral deck. However, I also did card counting (although not much to gain due to potentially shallow penetration) and deviated some from basic strategy due to count (mostly standing on 16 vs 10 on positive count). The highest of my bet was just 4 betting units based on count. By the way since I have been playing for around 220 hands I faced many losses, as below according to the history I keep. I take a pause from game when true count dips to -2, some as -1.5.

    Avg Bet
    Total Hands 220 100.00% £6.14
    Win 85 38.64% £6.88
    Lose 123 55.91% £5.61
    Push 12 5.45% £6.25

    I faced 10 losing sessions out off 15 sessions and I have already gone through just 20% of betting requirements. My bankroll history I keep track is attached here. The large sharp gain was a successful two double downs on both split hands at 3 bet size, but that was all gone. I'm new to card counting so I'm not sure this unlucky is general for card counters or not? In the late session I mostly flat bet all the time because the count was not in my favour to increase bet size. I feel somewhat desperate as the long way is ahead to complete betting requirement as now I feel unsecure as well though I need to keep making decisions like a robot all the time. May I ask experienced players is this normal and what should I do?
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  2. #2
    Senior Member UK-21's Avatar
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    What was the bonus you received? Have you done your sums around the number of hands you'll need to play at £5 a pop in order to clear the WR? 220 hands is far too small a sample to draw any conclusions from, although at a quick glance I would say that your results appear unremarkable.

    In my experience it is almost mathematically impossible to achieve the cashout WR and still have any of an initial signup bonus left. They're designed that way. Possibly the only way to achieve this would be to punt the lot on the first hand or two, and if you get lucky reduce subsequent bets to the table min. Even then you might find that the mins are such that the combination of the remaining hands that need to be played, variance and the HE will eat it away. Doing a hit and run and then min betting also runs the risk of the online house of chance saying that this isn't within the spirit of the bonus, breaks the T&Cs or whatever and cancels it out anyway.

    I think the consensus of the members of this forum is simple - "don't play online" Counting techniques don't work on RNG games and the live variety are usually so slow, and with such naff pen, that it'll be virtually impossible to elicit an advantage from them. Also spreading 1-4 won't overcome the HE.

    Regards,
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  3. #3


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    It is the live dealer game. I do not trust the game that I cannot see the shuffling process. The bonus was £100.
    I did the calculation in Excel with all HE and SD data. I did the calculation for offers on several sites and just hit this one with positive EV with only basic strategy. However, I just try to count the shoe and vary in progress in order to optimize my result in positive count.

    I don't mean 1-4 spread, it was just no more chance to bet more than 4 units.

  4. #4


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    Assuming your total loss = 85 - 123 = -38 units, Var = 1.3, n = 220 rounds, house edge = - 0.5%, We can find the probability of loss more than 38 units as below:-

    P(x <-38) = P[Z < (-38+0.005*220)/(1.3*220)^0.5] = P[ Z < -2.18], prob = 1.46%

  5. #5


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    Many thanks all, I finished my session and withdrawed all balance with positive gain (from both the bonus, counting and luck).
    I had one session that recovered my bankroll greatly by getting a few BJs with large bets from both card counting and luck. Anyway, this is the lesson for me in bad variance.

    Thank you

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