Lost 1029€ in 11 days, 866 hands, started with 5900€, are these swings normal?

[LukizKing]

Started playing with 5900 Eur, EV ~ 3.55 Eur/h, 12 Eur flat betting. Playing only TC 1 or more.

Lost 1029 Eur in about 11 days. Played perfectly and with a lot of patience.

Total amount waggered: 10 633 Eur. Rarely bet 1 Eur but just to practice and that was not often, just few times. That's about 866 hands.

CVCX showed a RoR of 1% at 5900 Eur betting 12 Eur. Losing 1029 Eur at some point the RoR is 44.8%.

Do you think these swings are normal? There has been only 11 days so I'm worried. Maybe I should readjust my RoR using 4871 Eur bankroll I have now?

RoR with the 4871 Eur and 12 Eur flat bet is 2.2%. To reach 1% RoR I'd have to flat bet 10 Eur.

What do you think? What should I do? I'm still not a pro in this area so please help me.

Continue to play with a 12 Eur flat bet? Using a bet spread + wonging does't increase EV and minimize RoR that much if at all.

How many hands in genaral required to beat the variance? I've read about 30 000? That's a lot and I'm not sure if gonna reach it with these swings.

1029 Eur is about 85 units of 12 Eur. CVData RoR calculator if entered the 866 hands played showed 0.662%. I'm doing something wrong. Used a load button and checked the Hands Played field:



Thank you in advance.

[DSchles]

CVCX showed a RoR of 1% at 5900 Eur betting 12 Eur. Losing 1029 Eur at some point the RoR is 44.8%.

If the probability (better term) of being down 1,029 euros at some point is almost 45%, why would you consider it a rare event, or that you're doing something wrong, if that's exactly what happened? Do you find 45% not to be a fairly significant probability? Or, do you figure it should have applied to the other guy and not to you? :-)

Don

[LukizKing]

Yes, it's not small. That's why I chose the starting RoR of 1%. What I'm worried that it happened in the short period of time and ~45% probability is being down 1029€ at some point. It should be less than ~45% in 11 days.

So the best thing would be to just keep playing, right?

[DSchles]

Yes, it's not small. That's why I chose the starting RoR of 1%. What I'm worried that it happened in the short period of time and ~45% probability is being down 1029€ at some point. It should be less than ~45% in 11 days.

So the best thing would be to just keep playing, right?

I don't understand one thing. Your unit is 12 euros. You write that your hourly (100 hands?) e.v. is 3.55 euros, which would be 0.296 units per 100 hands. But, in the calculator, you show 0.5866, or almost twice as much. Why is that? I'd like to calculate the probability of losing what you did (1,029 euros), in the 866 hands, but I can't until you clear up this apparent discrepancy.

Thanks.

Don

[LukizKing]

Thank you for your answer. The rounds per hour is set to 50 in the CVData configuration, so it's almost multiplied by 2 to show the Win Rate per 100 hands.

[DSchles]

Thank you for your answer. The rounds per hour is set to 50 in the CVData configuration, so it's almost multiplied by 2 to show the Win Rate per 100 hands.

So, yes, this is a somewhat rare and lousy outcome. The stats are telling you that if 150 players embarked on your path, on average, only one would suffer your fate.

Don

[LukizKing]

I contacted Norm and he said will look into it today. I can't be that unlucky.

[DSchles]

I contacted Norm and he said will look into it today. I can't be that unlucky.

Of course you can!

Don

[LukizKing]

But why me

[DSchles]

But why me

Ah, that's what they all say! Had you won even more than that amount, you never would have questioned for a second that it didn't make any sense. But, the minute you lose, you want to know how that could happen or why it should be you.

Human nature. When people win way too much for the time involved, they think they have it coming to them; when they lose, they wonder if they aren't playing right or why they should be so unlucky. Variance is symmetrically two-sided, and too many people just don't understand that.

Don

[LukizKing]

Alright, I'll keep playing and tell you how it goes. Thanks for the answer, that's so true

[BughouseMASTER]

The answer (if it's not already abundantly clear to you) is:

QUIT COUNTING AND WASTING YOUR TIME TRYING TO WIN BY DOING SO AS THERE IS NEVER A GUARANTEE THAT YOU WILL GET THE 20 OR 21!

[BughouseMASTER]

Dont wanna listen to me? That's fine too -- just have fun losing even MORE money than you already have.