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Thread: Blackjack Probability

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Sorry, but that isn't true. All that matters for a (losing) streak to occur is the probability of losing a hand or a coup. For double-zero roulette (even-money payoffs, like red-black), losing occurs 20/38 = 52.63% of the time. For single-zero, it's 19/37 = 51.35% of the time. Of course, if you bet a straight-up number, obviously, this is completely different. For blackjack, with ties excluded, you lose a hand about 51.76% of the time (rather rules dependent). So, it falls right in between the two roulette values, and there's no reason to expect that the streaks of loss will be, in your words, "much better."

    Don
    Don, apologies in advance for a question from the obtuse (me). We know that roulette is a carnival game with an HE an order of magnitude higher than bj. Then how is it the probabilities of winning a single roulette spin or bj hand are nearly equivalent? Thanks

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by snakeplisskin View Post
    Don, apologies in advance for a question from the obtuse (me). We know that roulette is a carnival game with an HE an order of magnitude higher than bj. Then how is it the probabilities of winning a single roulette spin or bj hand are nearly equivalent? Thanks
    Probably because of the way payoffs are presented.

  3. #16


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    Well, I must say I am overwhelmed with all the awesomeness in this here thred! Please give me some time to post and respond to specific persons. It will be a large time investment, with so many topics/concepts to respond to. For now, just a sincere thanks to everyone who posted; I read your post, appreciate it and have learned from it (especially the part about how the house always wins! :P).

  4. #17
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Click on "BJ Resources" on the menu at the top. That will lead you to a large number of everything.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Sorry, but that isn't true. All that matters for a (losing) streak to occur is the probability of losing a hand or a coup. For double-zero roulette (even-money payoffs, like red-black), losing occurs 20/38 = 52.63% of the time. For single-zero, it's 19/37 = 51.35% of the time. Of course, if you bet a straight-up number, obviously, this is completely different. For blackjack, with ties excluded, you lose a hand about 51.76% of the time (rather rules dependent). So, it falls right in between the two roulette values, and there's no reason to expect that the streaks of loss will be, in your words, "much better."
    So Don, how does this fit in with the data at the top of the BJI charts which say something like "estimated HE .6%"? Are those estimates even close to accurate?

    Don

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Reyth View Post
    So Don, how does this fit in with the data at the top of the BJI charts which say something like "estimated HE .6%"? Are those estimates even close to accurate?
    Everything Norm writes is accurate! :-)

    The question was about STREAKS: winning or losing x number of hands in a row. That has nothing at all to do with the HE of roulette or BJ, or any other game. It has only to do with the probability of, say, losing a hand or a coup, and I've already discussed that, above. The HE at BJ is a lot lower than at roulette, because, despite losing more hands than we win, we also get 3:2 payoffs for naturals, and other multiple payoffs for splits, doubles, and doubles after splits.

    But, the part of this thread I want to make sure dies a quick and painful death is the one where I extracted a quote from a new poster, who analyzed some data and then claimed he was "on to something." REALLY dangerous words! Can only lead to a world of aggravation for all of us.

    Don

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Reyth welcome to the board.

    I am curious about why you want to even bother completely wasting your time on something that will benefit no one?
    You are talking about a topic that is completely unpredictable and only noticeable after the fact.
    Well sirs, I consider knowledge of statistics to be very helpful in analyzing the current state of my play and also in properly preparing for my play in the future; people in all fields of endeavor do it all the time, betting on blackjack is no different.

    @Jack: Thank you very much for this published chart. I especially like how the winning probability is compared to the losing. Of course as Don said, its rule set specific, so do you mind if I ask what rule set was used to create that (what is CVBJ)?

    I don't want to buck any conventional wisdom or ruffle any respected feathers but as far as stop loss goes, I consider it an essential part of winning and I personally think that statistics have a lot to say about how to create effective stop losses. However, a stop loss does not exist in a vacuum, just as every other part of our winning methods and there are many ways of possibly applying them.

    Anyway, I just wanted to thank you very much for the post.

    And there is a list of people in this thread that have mentioned very important software and web-sourced materials that I also am deeply appreciative of. Thanks you guys!
    Last edited by Reyth; 04-11-2020 at 08:54 PM.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Reyth View Post
    I don't want to buck any conventional wisdom or ruffle any respected feathers but as far as stop loss goes, I consider it an essential part of winning and I personally think that statistics have a lot to say about how to create effective stop losses. However, a stop loss does not exist in a vacuum, just as every other part of our winning methods and there are many ways of possibly applying them.
    Swing and a miss strikkkkke two. First, it was about streaks when you wrote the following in post #1

    "
    So, I am a programmer and I can create a blackjack session simulator to analyze the worst streaks of losses and their probability and I guess that's what I need to do if I want to learn this information?"


    Now with the first above quote you could easily be interpreted as saying that players should quit playing in the middle of a negative session to have effective stop losses and that you think statistics will prove it? Once again you are barking up the wrong tree. Smart blackjack players adhere to strong money management principals as well as the risk of ruin formulas and will resize accordingly. Some professionals play to an almost zero risk. Please clarify where you are going with all of this.
    Last edited by BoSox; 04-13-2020 at 09:22 AM.

  9. #22
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Reyth View Post
    I don't want to buck any conventional wisdom or ruffle any respected feathers but as far as stop loss goes, I consider it an essential part of winning and I personally think that statistics have a lot to say about how to create effective stop losses
    And you would be incorrect. Nothing to do with conventional wisdom. Just math and statistics.

    For some stats. you might want to look at:

    https://www.blackjackincolor.com/
    http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/res...p?do=statspage
    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/re...hp?do=calcpage
    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/re...?do=bjtfcharts
    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/re...p?do=chartpage
    Last edited by Norm; 04-12-2020 at 07:18 AM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  10. #23


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    Stop loss based upon time, fatigue, longevity concerns, etc., are important in the real world.

  11. #24
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Well, I try to stop playing Poker after 48 hours straight.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Well, I try to stop playing Poker after 48 hours straight.
    Lol. That would make an interesting thread...your longest single session and the circumstances surrounding it...Dd you take meal breaks, naps..

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Stop loss based upon time, fatigue, longevity concerns, etc., are important in the real world.
    You need to stop offering this up every time someone comes along with a MATHEMATICAL argument for invoking a (stupid) stop loss. Yes, we all understand that, if you fall asleep at the table, that might be a good sign that you should stop. That ISN'T what the poster is discussing.

    So stop sending messages as to how (mathematical) stop losses, based on STATISTICS might be valid. You're sending a wrong and dangerous message to someone who obviously doesn't know any better.

    Don

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