Blackjack Probability

**Reyth** · 04-11-2020, 03:37 AM

Hey there everyone!

I have spent years analyzing roulette statistics and they are very easy to generate (just throw up random numbers from 0-36) but now that I am moving into blackjack, the actual statistics are a mystery to me.

We all know that the HE is not the culprit for loss streaks, heck even with a PLAYER advantage of 1%, we will still see streaks against us that will put us in a deep hole (either direct or successive); our problem is of course negative variance.

So, I am a programmer and I can create a blackjack session simulator to analyze the worst streaks of losses and their probability and I guess that's what I need to do if I want to learn this information?

My main issue of concern is how streaks of loss in blackjack compare with roulette; are they better? Worse? Equal?

For instance, it is commonly accepted that 25 EC's in a row is a benchmark that might be seen once in a person's lifetime (once in tens of millions of coup attempts) and each coup attempt has its own probability, from 1 on down the list to the 25th.

Does anyone have any advice or knowledge about these sorts of things?

**Bricklayer** · 04-11-2020, 05:25 AM

The house always wins. Hope this helps.
Jk btw

**ZeeBabar** · 04-11-2020, 05:51 AM

No belief in streaks on this site....

**qhdon** · 04-11-2020, 06:00 AM

There already exists a program that allows you to do what you described, and much more. You should look into it. (forgot name)

Since the variance is much lower for blackjack, the streaks of loss will be much "better" compared to roulette.

My advice is that you stop worrying about loss streaks for now, and focus on learning how to be a winning blackjack player, and getting live experience. Your questions about loss streaks will answer themselves as you learn about bankroll management and risk of ruin. Search through this forum using key words and gain as much free knowledge as possible. I had to pay for some of the knowledge, but if you search well enough you can find everything for free. Making money isn't easy; you need to put in effort. Your intelligence decides how much effort.

**DSchles** · 04-11-2020, 10:31 AM

Originally Posted by qhdon

Since the variance is much lower for blackjack, the streaks of loss will be much "better" compared to roulette.

Sorry, but that isn't true. All that matters for a (losing) streak to occur is the probability of losing a hand or a coup. For double-zero roulette (even-money payoffs, like red-black), losing occurs 20/38 = 52.63% of the time. For single-zero, it's 19/37 = 51.35% of the time. Of course, if you bet a straight-up number, obviously, this is completely different. For blackjack, with ties excluded, you lose a hand about 51.76% of the time (rather rules dependent). So, it falls right in between the two roulette values, and there's no reason to expect that the streaks of loss will be, in your words, "much better."

Don

**snakeplisskin** · 04-11-2020, 02:49 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

Sorry, but that isn't true. All that matters for a (losing) streak to occur is the probability of losing a hand or a coup. For double-zero roulette (even-money payoffs, like red-black), losing occurs 20/38 = 52.63% of the time. For single-zero, it's 19/37 = 51.35% of the time. Of course, if you bet a straight-up number, obviously, this is completely different. For blackjack, with ties excluded, you lose a hand about 51.76% of the time (rather rules dependent). So, it falls right in between the two roulette values, and there's no reason to expect that the streaks of loss will be, in your words, "much better."

Don

Don, apologies in advance for a question from the obtuse (me). We know that roulette is a carnival game with an HE an order of magnitude higher than bj. Then how is it the probabilities of winning a single roulette spin or bj hand are nearly equivalent? Thanks

**ShipTheCookies** · 04-11-2020, 03:07 PM

Originally Posted by snakeplisskin

Don, apologies in advance for a question from the obtuse (me). We know that roulette is a carnival game with an HE an order of magnitude higher than bj. Then how is it the probabilities of winning a single roulette spin or bj hand are nearly equivalent? Thanks

Probably because of the way payoffs are presented.

**Reyth** · 04-11-2020, 05:27 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

Sorry, but that isn't true. All that matters for a (losing) streak to occur is the probability of losing a hand or a coup. For double-zero roulette (even-money payoffs, like red-black), losing occurs 20/38 = 52.63% of the time. For single-zero, it's 19/37 = 51.35% of the time. Of course, if you bet a straight-up number, obviously, this is completely different. For blackjack, with ties excluded, you lose a hand about 51.76% of the time (rather rules dependent). So, it falls right in between the two roulette values, and there's no reason to expect that the streaks of loss will be, in your words, "much better."

So Don, how does this fit in with the data at the top of the BJI charts which say something like "estimated HE .6%"? Are those estimates even close to accurate?

Don

**DSchles** · 04-11-2020, 05:55 PM

Originally Posted by Reyth

So Don, how does this fit in with the data at the top of the BJI charts which say something like "estimated HE .6%"? Are those estimates even close to accurate?

Everything Norm writes is accurate! :-)

The question was about STREAKS: winning or losing x number of hands in a row. That has nothing at all to do with the HE of roulette or BJ, or any other game. It has only to do with the probability of, say, losing a hand or a coup, and I've already discussed that, above. The HE at BJ is a lot lower than at roulette, because, despite losing more hands than we win, we also get 3:2 payoffs for naturals, and other multiple payoffs for splits, doubles, and doubles after splits.

But, the part of this thread I want to make sure dies a quick and painful death is the one where I extracted a quote from a new poster, who analyzed some data and then claimed he was "on to something." REALLY dangerous words! Can only lead to a world of aggravation for all of us.

Don

**BoSox** · 04-11-2020, 06:11 AM

Originally Posted by Reyth

So, I am a programmer and I can create a blackjack session simulator to analyze the worst streaks of losses and their probability and I guess that's what I need to do if I want to learn this information?

Originally Posted by Reyth

Does anyone have any advice or knowledge about these sorts of things?

Reyth welcome to the board.

I am curious about why you want to even bother completely wasting your time on something that will benefit no one?
You are talking about a topic that is completely unpredictable and only noticeable after the fact.

**21forme** · 04-11-2020, 06:20 AM

Originally Posted by BoSox

I am curious about why you want to even bother completely wasting your time on something that will benefit no one?
You are talking about a topic that is completely unpredictable and only noticeable after the fact.

What he said.

**Reyth** · 04-11-2020, 08:43 PM

Originally Posted by BoSox

Reyth welcome to the board.

I am curious about why you want to even bother completely wasting your time on something that will benefit no one?
You are talking about a topic that is completely unpredictable and only noticeable after the fact.

Well sirs, I consider knowledge of statistics to be very helpful in analyzing the current state of my play and also in properly preparing for my play in the future; people in all fields of endeavor do it all the time, betting on blackjack is no different.

@Jack: Thank you very much for this published chart. I especially like how the winning probability is compared to the losing. Of course as Don said, its rule set specific, so do you mind if I ask what rule set was used to create that (what is CVBJ)?

I don't want to buck any conventional wisdom or ruffle any respected feathers but as far as stop loss goes, I consider it an essential part of winning and I personally think that statistics have a lot to say about how to create effective stop losses. However, a stop loss does not exist in a vacuum, just as every other part of our winning methods and there are many ways of possibly applying them.

Anyway, I just wanted to thank you very much for the post.

And there is a list of people in this thread that have mentioned very important software and web-sourced materials that I also am deeply appreciative of. Thanks you guys!

**BoSox** · 04-12-2020, 07:05 AM

Originally Posted by Reyth

I don't want to buck any conventional wisdom or ruffle any respected feathers but as far as stop loss goes, I consider it an essential part of winning and I personally think that statistics have a lot to say about how to create effective stop losses. However, a stop loss does not exist in a vacuum, just as every other part of our winning methods and there are many ways of possibly applying them.

Swing and a miss strikkkkke two. First, it was about streaks when you wrote the following in post #1

"

So, I am a programmer and I can create a blackjack session simulator to analyze the worst streaks of losses and their probability and I guess that's what I need to do if I want to learn this information?"

Now with the first above quote you could easily be interpreted as saying that players should quit playing in the middle of a negative session to have effective stop losses and that you think statistics will prove it? Once again you are barking up the wrong tree. Smart blackjack players adhere to strong money management principals as well as the risk of ruin formulas and will resize accordingly. Some professionals play to an almost zero risk. Please clarify where you are going with all of this.