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Thread: Blackjack Probability

  1. #1


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    Post Blackjack Probability

    Hey there everyone!

    I have spent years analyzing roulette statistics and they are very easy to generate (just throw up random numbers from 0-36) but now that I am moving into blackjack, the actual statistics are a mystery to me.

    We all know that the HE is not the culprit for loss streaks, heck even with a PLAYER advantage of 1%, we will still see streaks against us that will put us in a deep hole (either direct or successive); our problem is of course negative variance.

    So, I am a programmer and I can create a blackjack session simulator to analyze the worst streaks of losses and their probability and I guess that's what I need to do if I want to learn this information?

    My main issue of concern is how streaks of loss in blackjack compare with roulette; are they better? Worse? Equal?

    For instance, it is commonly accepted that 25 EC's in a row is a benchmark that might be seen once in a person's lifetime (once in tens of millions of coup attempts) and each coup attempt has its own probability, from 1 on down the list to the 25th.

    Does anyone have any advice or knowledge about these sorts of things?
    Last edited by Reyth; 04-11-2020 at 03:48 AM.

  2. #2


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    The house always wins. Hope this helps.
    Jk btw

  3. #3


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    No belief in streaks on this site....

  4. #4


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    There already exists a program that allows you to do what you described, and much more. You should look into it. (forgot name)

    Since the variance is much lower for blackjack, the streaks of loss will be much "better" compared to roulette.

    My advice is that you stop worrying about loss streaks for now, and focus on learning how to be a winning blackjack player, and getting live experience. Your questions about loss streaks will answer themselves as you learn about bankroll management and risk of ruin. Search through this forum using key words and gain as much free knowledge as possible. I had to pay for some of the knowledge, but if you search well enough you can find everything for free. Making money isn't easy; you need to put in effort. Your intelligence decides how much effort.

  5. #5


    2 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Reyth View Post
    So, I am a programmer and I can create a blackjack session simulator to analyze the worst streaks of losses and their probability and I guess that's what I need to do if I want to learn this information?
    Quote Originally Posted by Reyth View Post
    Does anyone have any advice or knowledge about these sorts of things?
    Reyth welcome to the board.

    I am curious about why you want to even bother completely wasting your time on something that will benefit no one?
    You are talking about a topic that is completely unpredictable and only noticeable after the fact.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    I am curious about why you want to even bother completely wasting your time on something that will benefit no one?
    You are talking about a topic that is completely unpredictable and only noticeable after the fact.
    What he said.

  7. #7


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    Researh John Austin's BJ Analyzer (about 90% sure) with a Random Walk feature then you will not have to re-invent the wheel.

    Don or Norm will likely correct reference is I am wrong.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  8. #8


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by qhdon View Post
    Since the variance is much lower for blackjack, the streaks of loss will be much "better" compared to roulette.
    Sorry, but that isn't true. All that matters for a (losing) streak to occur is the probability of losing a hand or a coup. For double-zero roulette (even-money payoffs, like red-black), losing occurs 20/38 = 52.63% of the time. For single-zero, it's 19/37 = 51.35% of the time. Of course, if you bet a straight-up number, obviously, this is completely different. For blackjack, with ties excluded, you lose a hand about 51.76% of the time (rather rules dependent). So, it falls right in between the two roulette values, and there's no reason to expect that the streaks of loss will be, in your words, "much better."

    Don

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    Researh John Austin's BJ Analyzer (about 90% sure) with a Random Walk feature then you will not have to re-invent the wheel.

    Don or Norm will likely correct reference is I am wrong.
    John Auston, with an o. Blackjack Risk Manager 2002.

    Don

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Reyth View Post
    Hey there everyone!

    I have spent years analyzing roulette statistics and they are very easy to generate (just throw up random numbers from 0-36) but now that I am moving into blackjack, the actual statistics are a mystery to me.

    We all know that the HE is not the culprit for loss streaks, heck even with a PLAYER advantage of 1%, we will still see streaks against us that will put us in a deep hole (either direct or successive); our problem is of course negative variance.

    So, I am a programmer and I can create a blackjack session simulator to analyze the worst streaks of losses and their probability and I guess that's what I need to do if I want to learn this information?

    My main issue of concern is how streaks of loss in blackjack compare with roulette; are they better? Worse? Equal?

    For instance, it is commonly accepted that 25 EC's in a row is a benchmark that might be seen once in a person's lifetime (once in tens of millions of coup attempts) and each coup attempt has its own probability, from 1 on down the list to the 25th.

    Does anyone have any advice or knowledge about these sorts of things?

    Enjoy having a look around here: http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc_streak.htm

    Or here: http://williamray.net/statistics/CalculateStreaks.shtml

    Or here (scroll down a bit): https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/home

    Don

  11. #11


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    This
    #NAME? $Won Won % Cumm. % #NAME? $Lost Lost % Cumm. %
    1 15598 $868,810 51.65% 51.65% 14143 $1,333,761 46.83% 46.83%
    2 7473 $1,419,781 24.75% 76.39% 7514 $1,150,772 24.88% 71.71%
    3 3743 $1,054,886 12.39% 88.79% 4007 $780,193 13.27% 84.98%
    4 1716 $583,665 5.68% 94.47% 2166 $567,938 7.17% 92.15%
    5 839 $307,177 2.78% 97.25% 1107 $301,152 3.67% 95.82%
    6 422 $164,800 1.40% 98.65% 579 $203,676 1.92% 97.74%
    7 209 $107,670 0.69% 99.34% 321 $110,760 1.06% 98.80%
    8 102 $47,923 0.34% 99.68% 175 $66,506 0.58% 99.38%
    9 57 $31,500 0.19% 99.86% 75 $36,263 0.25% 99.63%
    10 19 $10,358 0.06% 99.93% 52 $26,356 0.17% 99.80%
    11 12 $5,278 0.04% 99.97% 28 $17,795 0.09% 99.89%
    12 1 $443 0.00% 99.97% 15 $11,415 0.05% 99.94%
    13 4 $7,301 0.01% 99.98% 8 $6,452 0.03% 99.97%
    14 4 $2,030 0.01% 100.00% 5 $3,090 0.02% 99.98%
    15 0 $0 0.00% 100.00% 1 $18,282 0.00% 99.99%
    16 1 $565 0.00% 100.00% 0 $0 0.00% 99.99%
    17 0 $0 0.00% 100.00% 2 $19,770 0.01% 99.99%
    18 0 $0 0.00% 100.00% 1 $3,800 0.00% 100.00%
    19 0 $0 0.00% 100.00% 1 $1,050 0.00% 100.00%
    >19 0 $0 0.00% 100.00% 0 $0 0.00% 100.00%
    This is from All logs CVBJ, Streaks go all the way to 19. This has not been modified in any way.I hope it helps
    I Think I may have discovered something from this table and I am looking for somebody with a strong math background to design a rock solid "Stop Loss" . Maybe there is a way to link.

  12. #12


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Daniels View Post
    I Think I may have discovered something from this table and I am looking for somebody with a strong math background to design a rock solid "Stop Loss" .
    STOP HERE!! Do NOT pass Go, do not collect $200 or any other amount. A rock-solid stop loss is: Don't Play! Just don't go there! Read my lips: You haven't discovered ANYTHING.

    Over/under for this new thread, anyone??

    Don

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    STOP HERE!! Do NOT pass Go, do not collect $200 or any other amount. A rock-solid stop loss is: Don't Play! Just don't go there! Read my lips: You haven't discovered ANYTHING.

    Over/under for this new thread, anyone??

    Don
    Keep it moving....break some records..

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