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Thread: Blackjack Probability

  1. #71


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Reyth View Post
    Well I need say nothing in my defense, all you fellas have heard it all before, just as I have heard all your arguments before too. Its is a silly boring back and forth.

    However, because of Norm's (whom I have great respect for) picture, I WILL clarify what exactly I mean by positive variance. This is a registry that is similar to a few that I have played recently:

    LLLLLwLLLLwLwwLwW

    Now we have 11 losses and 6 wins. The positive variance here is the bolded. No miracle required.
    How do you refer to that (portion) as positive variance?? You don't understand the concept at all. You played 17 times and lost 11. Unless the game you're playing has rather shitty odds, your sequence is a demonstration of NEGATIVE variance. You want to isolate the bold part and call it positive variance? Do you have a plan for playing that part only and avoiding the beginning of the sequence?

    This discussion belongs in the Voodoo section.

    Don

  2. #72


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    ...
    This discussion belongs in the Voodoo section.

    Don
    Hence the video I posted "Gimme some of the yeller."

  3. #73
    Senior Member UK-21's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies View Post
    Hence the video I posted "Gimme some of the yeller."
    Duh ! ! ! ! Just been scratching me head over that one. Get it now. Always a danger in being too subtle?
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  4. #74


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    I simply defined what I mean by using positive variance to win and I do have a working understanding of the concept. I require SOME positive variance to win and as you have noticed, that is not on a miraculous scale.

  5. #75


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    You found one example where it worked ignoring the vast majority where it didn't. George Burns smoked cigars constantly and lived to 100. Does that mean doctors should advise patients to smoke? Or, perhaps we should look at all examples.
    No way he probably could have lived to 120 if he didn't smoke.

  6. #76


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    Quote Originally Posted by Reyth View Post
    I simply defined what I mean by using positive variance to win and I do have a working understanding of the concept. I require SOME positive variance to win and as you have noticed, that is not on a miraculous scale.
    You are considerably more pig-headed and unwilling to learn than most. Lots of good luck to you. You certainly are going to need it. I usually don't participate in Voodoo threads, but in the beginning, you seemed worth saving. Now, clearly not so sure.

    Don

  7. #77


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    Question Stop Loss

    I typically use a 3 unit stop loss from my top. I want to know is there any empirical data that supports a stop loss at any level improves results for a player using basic strategy? And if there is what is the optimal stop loss and how was it derived. I’ve done some simple tests with a limited sample and it shows some promise. However, if there is anything out there that proves it does or doesn’t I would love to see the data or analysis.

  8. #78
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    No, stop losses are useless unless you NEVER EVER play again in your life. Please don't repeat this.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  9. #79


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    Blackjack Probabilities

    A new piece of software for simulating blackjack that runs from an app or web browser on the newer devices that people now use would be quite useful!

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