See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 6 of 6 FirstFirst ... 456
Results 66 to 78 of 78

Thread: Blackjack Probability

  1. #66


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    “Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.”

    ? Aaron Levenstein
    "Statistics have been known to support many things -- mostly statisticians!"

    Don

  2. #67


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Well I need say nothing in my defense, all you fellas have heard it all before, just as I have heard all your arguments before too. Its is a silly boring back and forth.

    However, because of Norm's (whom I have great respect for) picture, I WILL clarify what exactly I mean by positive variance. This is a registry that is similar to a few that I have played recently:

    LLLLLwLLLLwLwwLwW

    Now we have 11 losses and 6 wins. The positive variance here is the bolded. No miracle required.

  3. #68
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    12,461
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    You found one example where it worked ignoring the vast majority where it didn't. George Burns smoked cigars constantly and lived to 100. Does that mean doctors should advise patients to smoke? Or, perhaps we should look at all examples.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  4. #69


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I think you read my mind!

  5. #70


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

  6. #71


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Reyth View Post
    Well I need say nothing in my defense, all you fellas have heard it all before, just as I have heard all your arguments before too. Its is a silly boring back and forth.

    However, because of Norm's (whom I have great respect for) picture, I WILL clarify what exactly I mean by positive variance. This is a registry that is similar to a few that I have played recently:

    LLLLLwLLLLwLwwLwW

    Now we have 11 losses and 6 wins. The positive variance here is the bolded. No miracle required.
    How do you refer to that (portion) as positive variance?? You don't understand the concept at all. You played 17 times and lost 11. Unless the game you're playing has rather shitty odds, your sequence is a demonstration of NEGATIVE variance. You want to isolate the bold part and call it positive variance? Do you have a plan for playing that part only and avoiding the beginning of the sequence?

    This discussion belongs in the Voodoo section.

    Don

  7. #72


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    ...
    This discussion belongs in the Voodoo section.

    Don
    Hence the video I posted "Gimme some of the yeller."

  8. #73
    Senior Member UK-21's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Somewhere green and leafy in the UK.
    Posts
    304


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies View Post
    Hence the video I posted "Gimme some of the yeller."
    Duh ! ! ! ! Just been scratching me head over that one. Get it now. Always a danger in being too subtle?
    _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
    Visit UK-21's Degenerate Gamblers Pages - www.uk-21.org

  9. #74


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I simply defined what I mean by using positive variance to win and I do have a working understanding of the concept. I require SOME positive variance to win and as you have noticed, that is not on a miraculous scale.

  10. #75


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    You found one example where it worked ignoring the vast majority where it didn't. George Burns smoked cigars constantly and lived to 100. Does that mean doctors should advise patients to smoke? Or, perhaps we should look at all examples.
    No way he probably could have lived to 120 if he didn't smoke.

  11. #76


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Reyth View Post
    I simply defined what I mean by using positive variance to win and I do have a working understanding of the concept. I require SOME positive variance to win and as you have noticed, that is not on a miraculous scale.
    You are considerably more pig-headed and unwilling to learn than most. Lots of good luck to you. You certainly are going to need it. I usually don't participate in Voodoo threads, but in the beginning, you seemed worth saving. Now, clearly not so sure.

    Don

  12. #77


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Question Stop Loss

    I typically use a 3 unit stop loss from my top. I want to know is there any empirical data that supports a stop loss at any level improves results for a player using basic strategy? And if there is what is the optimal stop loss and how was it derived. I’ve done some simple tests with a limited sample and it shows some promise. However, if there is anything out there that proves it does or doesn’t I would love to see the data or analysis.

  13. #78
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    12,461
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    No, stop losses are useless unless you NEVER EVER play again in your life. Please don't repeat this.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

Page 6 of 6 FirstFirst ... 456

Similar Threads

  1. Blackjack Probability Question
    By ProbWiz in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 18
    Last Post: 02-15-2014, 09:23 PM
  2. Probability
    By bjarg in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 12-30-2012, 11:22 AM
  3. Replies: 3
    Last Post: 04-26-2012, 08:42 AM
  4. Replies: 4
    Last Post: 10-09-2008, 01:55 PM
  5. JJ: Probability of Getting 21
    By JJ in forum Blackjack Beginners
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 03-11-2003, 10:06 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.