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Thread: Betting more at true counts above 6

  1. #1


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    Betting more at true counts above 6

    Normally, I would cap my bet at TC6. Is it recommended to bet higher beyond a TC6?

    This chart shows that at a true 8, the player has a 6% advantage.

    https://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount2.htm

    Thank you

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Nitram View Post
    Normally, I would cap my bet at TC6. Is it recommended to bet higher beyond a TC6?

    This chart shows that at a true 8, the player has a 6% advantage.

    https://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount2.htm

    Thank you
    I couldn't see the chart...but why would you ever cap your bet as your advantage increases? Except for bankroll limitations, table limits, or heat obviously.
    Last edited by Counting_Is_Fun; 04-08-2020 at 10:09 PM.

  3. #3


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    If the count rises from a true 1 to true 2, we get about a half % advantage. If the count rises from a true 8 to true 9, I remember hearing or reading something that our advantage doesn't rise by half a %. So that's why even though I would have a true count of 8 or 9, or 12, I would still max at true count 6.

    What I'm saying is, if you had a true count of 10, would you bet more than your true 6 count? I'm just used to BJA betting software that doesn't allow player to enter in a true 8,9, or 10 bet.

    I know these counts are rare. But the player has more of an advantage than at true 6. I have never thought to increase my bets beyond a true 6, I am not familiar with this, so that's why I'm asking if any of you do this.

    Thanks for the help, counting_is_fun

  4. #4
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    The full Kelly bet with 100k bankroll and 8% edge would be 8k. It’s your choice weather to play half, quarter or 0 risk.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nitram View Post
    If the count rises from a true 1 to true 2, we get about a half % advantage. If the count rises from a true 8 to true 9, I remember hearing or reading something that our advantage doesn't rise by half a %. So that's why even though I would have a true count of 8 or 9, or 12, I would still max at true count 6.

    What I'm saying is, if you had a true count of 10, would you bet more than your true 6 count? I'm just used to BJA betting software that doesn't allow player to enter in a true 8,9, or 10 bet.

    I know these counts are rare. But the player has more of an advantage than at true 6. I have never thought to increase my bets beyond a true 6, I am not familiar with this, so that's why I'm asking if any of you do this.

    Thanks for the help, counting_is_fun
    You say... "What I'm saying is, if you had a true count of 10, would you bet more than your true 6 count? I'm just used to BJA betting software that doesn't allow player to enter in a true 8,9, or 10 bet."

    My answer would be yes, I would bet more...given my exceptions already stated. But your intuition will help you in this game.
    Last edited by Counting_Is_Fun; 04-09-2020 at 12:43 AM.

  6. #6
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Yes, your SCORE would be higher. Because you would be increasing your spread. But, you would not be doing so optimally. If you wanted to do it optimally, you would take your new higher bet and start betting it at +4, +5 at a very high spread, because there are more hands there. You would also decrease the betting at lower counts. Change the spread in CVCX to see how this works dynamically.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Colon View Post
    The full Kelly bet with 100k bankroll and 8% edge would be 8k. It’s your choice weather to play half, quarter or 0 risk.
    Nitpicking here but not quite true. Full kelly is advantage/variance*bankroll=kelly bet not just advantage *bankroll. Blackjack variance on a single hand is about 1.3

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by mcallister3200 View Post
    Nitpicking here but not quite true. Full kelly is advantage/variance*bankroll=kelly bet not just advantage *bankroll. Blackjack variance on a single hand is about 1.3
    Beat me to it. Right you are.

    Don

  9. #9
    Senior Member JBourne's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun View Post
    I couldn't see the chart...but why would you ever cap your bet as your advantage increases? Except for bankroll limitations, table limits, or heat obviously.
    The bankroll limitations can be very important to consider. As you spread wider by increasing bets at subsequently higher counts you certainly need to consider bankroll implications. You will see an improvement in EV and SCORE, but you also have higher average bet size and increased standard deviation. ROR will increase, therefore you need more bankroll to keep risk the same.

    As I started out my session bankroll was limited and I had to cap the spread just to keep variance under control even through it was limiting my return. As my bankroll has grown it is enabling me to increase the spread, but my session/trip bankroll also needed to increase.

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