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Thread: Acceptable R.O.R

  1. #27


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    For my doubling questions - I guess I am trying to determine if, when my max bet is out, whether each doubling opportunity is worth it or whether it would lead to overbetting.

    I don't intend to play full kelly or close to it, but from an academic standpoint, I see the potential for overbetting with some of the doubles if they don't double the the advantage.

  2. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by BJC View Post
    For my doubling questions - I guess I am trying to determine if, when my max bet is out, whether each doubling opportunity is worth it or whether it would lead to overbetting.

    I don't intend to play full kelly or close to it, but from an academic standpoint, I see the potential for overbetting with some of the doubles if they don't double the the advantage.
    Doubles and splits are incorporated into the calculation

  3. #29


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    No, I don’t - It’s easy enough to make a table outlining differentials in dollars between doubling and non doubling over any number of hands at various percentages of successful doubles. I would start with something conservative like 60% and 55% for hard and soft doubles respectively.

    Could probably explain it in under a paragraph

    Maybe a different way to look at it. If Player first card us a 10, with its corresponding 10% advantage, then what is player advantage for first 2 cards holding 82,73,64,55,92,83,74,65 opposite dealer up card of anything 2 thru 9.

    With varying advantages depending on dealer upcard - has to be huge.
    The ability to determine DD edges is beyond simple. All the values are there. There's no mystery to the process. I'm simply saying that some doubles are done because the doubled value is greater than the undoubled value, but not by twice as much, while others are fully double the initial-hand edge. I just have never counted each variety to see which is the more prevalent. It's child's play to do, but I have no inclination to want to do it.

    Don

  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by BJC View Post
    but from an academic standpoint, I see the potential for overbetting with some of the doubles if they don't double the the advantage.
    You can't "philosophize" on the subject. You either trust the math or you don't. If you're already not betting full Kelly, then you shouldn't be afraid to double a max bet. Whether that doubles the edge has nothing to do with it. We've already explained that this is already taken into account by dividing your edge by the variance, in order to bet optimally.

    Finally, the entire concept of risk-averse wagering considers that, at the exact index, some doubles are marginal, and so, rather than doubling for less, waiting for a higher count to double is the intelligent way to bet.

    Don

  5. #31


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    Hi Don,

    Where in BJA or Theory of BJ would I find the correct tables to add up?

    I'm also considering it from a cutoff/shuffle track perspective of betting 1-2 units higher for the first .5-1.5 decks with the assumption that there is a higher frequency of high cards available. It would help me understand the odds of busting the dealer, but also whether it is worth doubling on a hand, eating up a 10 that could bust the dealer, or potentially help make a 21 on a later hand. (assuming the tracked section has a higher prevalence of aces also) Also, if i spread to multiple hands to try to catch an ace, it might again help make an educated decision whether burning cards is valuable depending on what actually came out.

    Example, If i think a quarter deck segment has +5 (total ten's = 10 and 3 other), and I've spread 4 hands, and between myself and the dealer have seen 4 ten cards.

    Let's say the dealer has a 5 or 6 showing, he likely will have a 15/16. I have 4 hands, and say one is 20, the other 2 tens are in 2 stiffs other, and the other hand could be 11 or under.

    4/10 ten's have been seen, One is inferred for the dealer. i have 4 hands with 5 likely 10/Aces left.

    10 of the 13 card segment has been dealt, I have seen -5 (-4 counted, -1 inferred) The next three cards are likely 10's, and the 2 ten's, that won't make it into this 13 cards segment, are probably just a card, two or three outside the original 13 card section. This is a realistic scenario as tracking is estimating versus difficult shuffles.

    I would likely double on the 11 and under, stand on the stiffs, split the ten's, but if i pull another 10, it would put me into the situation of splitting again further depleting the 10 richnesss, and risking not busting the dealer. Doing this would potentially use another 3 10's and if forced to split another pair of 20's, by the time the dealer hits, the deck might be negative giving him better odds.

    I know this is highly situational, but if tracking a particular segment and only playing with a higher degree of certainty that it is 10's rich by say +3 or more, you can easily get into situations where you have to make judgement calls.

    I want to try to create a shuffle trackers basic strategy that assumes a high count, and a shallow penetration (to simulate utilizing this strategy for .5-1.5 decks). It would obviously recommend standing more often on all hands, but particularly stiffs. This is where the double down comes into play, and only doubling down if the advantage is truly double, since you are taking a chance burning a card that could bust the dealer.

    This is all theory as i've played around with this on intuition and it seems to work, but it would be superior to have some math behind it the deviations


    I am aware of methods of adding to the estimated True Count and playing the situation like that for betting purposes, but i think this doesn't do justice to the deviations, as the count tells us if low cards have been played and thus more hi cards are likely at some point in the future, whereas shuffle tracking tell us that the high cards are coming in the next 2-30 hands if we cut them off. It would be equivalent to a much higher true count. It's similar to end play for the tracked segments.

  6. #32


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    I once saw a guy confidently passing his 6 utilizing the same logic - it did not bode well.

    There is an abundance of voodoo in your post. Learn the easy stuff first and develop a common sense approach to the game. Please don't shoot me with that blow dart.

  7. #33


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    I once saw a guy confidently passing his 6 utilizing the same logic - it did not bode well.

    There is an abundance of voodoo in your post. Learn the easy stuff first and develop a common sense approach to the game. Please don't shoot me with that blow dart.
    Lol i know what you mean, that's why im trying to reason out some sort of strategy

    BJC

  8. #34


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    Quote Originally Posted by BJC View Post
    Lol i know what you mean, that's why im trying to reason out some sort of strategy

    BJC
    Which should not incorporate passing on 6

  9. #35


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    Quote Originally Posted by BJC View Post
    Where in BJA or Theory of BJ would I find the correct tables to add up?
    In all of the Appendix A charts.

    I'm not going to comment on any of the rest of your post, as Freightman said it best: it's mostly voodoo. You're thinking too much, and the reasoning is invalid.

    Don

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