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Thread: Can The Law of Diminishing Returns Apply to Blackjack?

  1. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by StanPodolak View Post
    Ding ding ding @rattler

    @wave you should quit blackjack. Just stop.
    @StanPodolak:

    1. I don't know how many posts of mine you have read, but in live play my spreads vary between 1:8 and 1:20 depending on table minimum...and I have repeatedly stated this. This example is an academic exercise.

    2. I've multiplied my bankroll ten times from my start...so I'll continue to play. Mind your business.

  2. #67


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    Dang Stan that was pretty harsh. Imagine if I had told u that the last time I wrecked u in basketball - u were like firewood out there... always getting burned

    Wave - no need to get discouraged by the negativity and it’s really good to think critically like that.

    To be perfectly honest it’s highly unlikely that you’re going to add anything innovative and valuable to the field of card counting because at its core it’s extremely simple and because really smart people like don have figured most things out by now, because it’s been around for so long. Tons of other opportunities in gambling though so I encourage you to keep thinking critically like that

  3. #68
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    @Rattler1: Thank you Sir, will do, respect.

  4. #69


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    @rattler1 If you are ever wrecking me in basketball, all I need to do is wait for you to wake up from your dream.

    @wave I wasn’t referring to your spread. I’ve read plenty and it’s almost all nonsense and a waste of time. You can probably tell from my post count on this site that I’m incredibly bored right now.

  5. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by StanPodolak View Post
    @rattler1 If you are ever wrecking me in basketball, all I need to do is wait for you to wake up from your dream.

    @wave I wasn’t referring to your spread. I’ve read plenty and it’s almost all nonsense and a waste of time. You can probably tell from my post count on this site that I’m incredibly bored right now.
    @Stan:

    You are, of course, entitled to your opinion. But from everything I've read I've only seen recommedations such as "you should use X units as your trip roll"...or "you should bet half Kelly as your spread"...or "you should have 100 units on you when you walk into a casino"...etc...all generic pap...never anything regarding how many units you should be willing to risk on a particular shoe given a specific set of rules and penetration. I was seeking something more precise to determine how many units one should be willing to risk on a particular shoe, and having no statistically validated formula to determine that amount, I decided to try and figure it out on my own.

    Now, with Rattler1's insight, I understand that the key component I was overlooking was bet spread. The sims were right; for that particular game and spread in the example of the OP, 50 units is enough to reach the maximum attainable Hourly EV for that game, penetration, and spread...and that is why there is no significant statistical difference between a 50 unit shoe roll and 100 unit shoe roll for that game, rules, penetration and spread.

    Now, that being said, I still contend that there is an identifiable amount of units one should be willing to risk when playing a particular shoe, set of rules, penetration, and bet spread...and that number of units is identifiable via simulation...and is the point at which where risking more units no longer generates increased Hourly EV...and Hourly EV IS a statistically validated unit of measure, just like DI, SCORE N0, or Factor.

    Yes, you are entitled to your opinions in this regard, but I do not play with your money, I play with my money...and I want to maximize reward while minimizing risk with my money. Generic, imprecise, pap just does not cut it when I am risking my money. Play how you wish, but I will always seek a better, more efficient, way.
    Last edited by Wave; 04-07-2020 at 11:55 PM.

  6. #71


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    100% pure grade ploppy logic.

    If you quit on shoes just because you’ve lost too much money, you are just prolonging the time it takes you to make it to the long run, period.

    No one respectable has tried to come up with the appropriate amount to risk on a particular shoe because only ploppies care that damn much about the short term.

  7. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by StanPodolak View Post
    100% pure grade ploppy logic.

    If you quit on shoes just because you’ve lost too much money, you are just prolonging the time it takes you to make it to the long run, period.

    No one respectable has tried to come up with the appropriate amount to risk on a particular shoe because only ploppies care that damn much about the short term.
    Opinion unsupported by sim data...more pap from a pseudo expert...standard units of measure are standard units of measure and Hourly EV is a standardized unit of measure.
    Last edited by Wave; 04-08-2020 at 12:25 AM.

  8. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by StanPodolak View Post
    What I said was not my opinion and it is supported by sim data that was run before most of today’s pros were even born.
    No source/no sim data = opinion = pseudo expert pap.

    The key issue is increased Hourly EV. Simply playing longer past a certain point does not increase Hourly EV. In my example in the OP you could have played until you lost 10M units and you would not increase Hourly EV.
    Last edited by Wave; 04-08-2020 at 12:34 AM.

  9. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by StanPodolak View Post
    No source just means I wasn’t willing to waste more of my time on this rookie nonsense than I already have.
    Ad hominem = pseudo expert pap.

  10. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by StanPodolak View Post
    I will give you the fact that there are tons of pseudo experts on here. I am not one of them.

    Hell, I’m not even really on here.
    Then I won't bust your balls anymore, have a good night, I'm outta' here.

  11. #76


    1 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    Now, that being said, I still contend that there is an identifiable amount of units one should be willing to risk when playing a particular shoe, set of rules, penetration, and bet spread...and that number of units is identifiable via simulation...and is the point at which where risking more units no longer generates increased Hourly EV...and Hourly EV IS a statistically validated unit of measure, just like DI, SCORE N0, or Factor.

    Yes, you are entitled to your opinions in this regard, but I do not play with your money, I play with my money...and I want to maximize reward while minimizing risk with my money.

  12. #77


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Never heard of a shoe bankroll before, who plans on their trip only playing one shoe?

    I have heard of a shoebox bankroll, I think zeebabar is an expert on that subject

  13. #78


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Rattler1 View Post
    Dang Stan that was pretty harsh. Imagine if I had told u that the last time I wrecked u in basketball - u were like firewood out there... always getting burned

    Wave - no need to get discouraged by the negativity and it’s really good to think critically like that.

    To be perfectly honest it’s highly unlikely that you’re going to add anything innovative and valuable to the field of card counting because at its core it’s extremely simple and because really smart people like don have figured most things out by now, because it’s been around for so long. Tons of other opportunities in gambling though so I encourage you to keep thinking critically like that
    I promised I'd stay out of this and have, of course, done so since my one and only post on the topic. Now, some 80 more posts later (!!), someone has finally arrived to state the painfully obvious -- something I had been waiting for so that I didn't have to post again, which I've been on the verge of doing for three days!

    OF COURSE you'll get the same sim results for playing a SINGLE shoe (!!), even more ridiculously, with a 1-4 spread (!!) with FIFTY units (!!) and then, increasingly more and more. Fifty or 50 million ... what's the difference? Clearly, nothing at all! It should have been child's play for anyone to understand that.

    Now, play the shoe with the 1-12 or 1-16 spread that it demands for play-all, and begin with, say, 20 or 30 units, and then progress upwards, and you will see DRAMATICALLY different sim results. Of course, yet again, limiting to one shoe -- 43 hands -- is an absurd notion. Why not just do the sims for ten hands and show us how you really don't need more than 50 units!! What an incredibly naive and absurd notion. What a fundamentally shallow understanding of the rudimentary mathematics of the game! EIGHTY posts for nothing but drivel. Sad.

    And, of course, more important than all of the above, also reiterated by you and stated by several others, is the ridiculous, amateurish notion of putting a stop limit on a shoe, if you should be in the middle of a positive plus count and potentially large advantage. I think it's 100% safe to say that I have been playing blackjack for 45 years and have NEVER, ever, walked away in the middle of a positive shoe. I'd rather die first.

    So now, this is one more post than the one I promised to make in this thread. Can we all please allow it to die the death that it so richly deserves?

    Don

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