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Thread: Can The Law of Diminishing Returns Apply to Blackjack?

  1. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Positive EV opportunities are positive no matter when they come up. Using a shoe stop-loss as some sort of justification for a form of bankroll protection in the heat of battle does not make any sense to me. Unless your intent was to walk away from the game permanently in disgrace.

    In Don's book to quote the last three sentences starting on page nine:

    "You have to play this game like a machine. What would a computer do now? It would play the next hand-after all, the shoe isn't over."
    A computer would recognize the LDR.
    Last edited by Wave; 04-04-2020 at 02:08 AM.

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    A computer would recognize the LDR.
    Only an amateur would allow a completely meaningless small segment of hands to interfere in their game planning. Sounds like someone is either overbetting their bankroll or, said another way gambling with money that shouldn't have been gambled with in the first place.


    Last edited by BoSox; 04-04-2020 at 02:30 AM.

  3. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Only an amateur would allow a completely meaningless small segment of hands to interfere in their game planning. Sounds like someone is either overbetting their bankroll or, said another way gambling with money that shouldn't have been gambled with in the first place.
    A standardized measure (Hourly EV) is a standardized measure. Only someone that does not understand a standardized measure would fail to recognize the validity, and significance, of a standardized measure.

    Hourly EV does not trump shoe Win or shoe Loss Means and SDs. You might be in a + count, but Win/Loss Means and SDs trump Hourly EV...not the other way around. This is the essence of the LDR.

    I'm not basing my decisions on "a completely meaningless small segment of hands"...I'm basing them on a sample size of +10B hands and making the decision to stop playing in the same manner that I am deciding to make index plays. Making a deviation from BS based on the count based on the long term is no different than making a decision to stop playing a shoe based on the long term. You recognize that we cannot base playing decisions and deviations based on the matter at hand, but think we must make ending play decisions in a shoe based on the matter at hand? No BoSox, you are making continuation of play decisions that are not based on long term data, not me.
    Last edited by Wave; 04-04-2020 at 11:44 AM.

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    A standardized measure (Hourly EV) is a standardized measure. Only someone that does not understand a standardized measure would fail to recognize the validity, and significance, of a standardized measure.

    Hourly EV does not trump shoe Win or shoe Loss Means and SDs. You might be in a + count, but Win/Loss Means and SDs trump Hourly EV...not the other way around. This is the essence of the LDR.
    Wave, how do you calculate all the extra time spent (fewer hands played) when you are quitting shoes, and starting over again regarding your theories?

  5. #18


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    All I know is that when you are seeing good true counts, which happens so infrequently, logically speaking the last thing you would want to be doing at that point is quitting the shoe.

  6. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    All I know is that when you are seeing good true counts, which happens so infrequently, logically speaking the last thing you would want to be doing at that point is quitting the shoe.
    This is because you do not understand shoe win mean and SD v shoe loss mean and SD. Just like you cannot overcome house edge in the long term without counting and bet spread, you cannot trump mean shoe win/loss and SD in the long term.
    Last edited by Wave; 04-04-2020 at 03:15 AM.

  7. #20
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    It's okay BoSox, a shoe bankroll is definitely a new concept and I understand it will take a while for people to accept it, but I believe it is satistically valid and if it takes someone more knowledgeable or articulate than I to pursuade non-believers to accept the concept, so be it.
    Last edited by Wave; 04-04-2020 at 11:08 AM.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    That 1:4 was simply for example as stated in the OP; my live play varies between 1:8 and 1:20 with different 1 unit values...for several reasons I suspect are obvious to you. That being said, all changes in variables (rules, pen, # of players, spread, etc.) will effect the number of units for an optimized shoe bankroll.
    Optimized shoe bankroll concept, Wave you can have it. I want nothing to do with it, as I could care less of how many people you win over. Everyone should welcome positive variance opportunities, while also understanding that with those opportunities comes greater risk. For crying out loud, with proper money management skills that go along with everything else that all players should know, no one should rightfully give your concept a second thought. I am calling your idea a real bad proposition.

  9. #22


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    Interesting work, Wave. In my 'day job', I work with data and stats so appreciate the efforts you're making. My own take on the points in this thread is based only on my personal experience and looking at my session records, but it mirrors your point that the emotions that arise from a 50X loss vs a 100X loss shouldn't be discounted. With due respect, we aren't machines, we aren't computers. I've also learned from sometimes painful experience that it can be a bit hubristic (and expensive) to assume you're always "on point" with the count late into a shoe, especially late in the day after a number of sessions. So, I've come to apply certain limits for both a session and a day and in terms of time and units.

    As I've stated elsewhere, my objective is not always maximization but ensuring longevity. I've had periods of 6 to 9 months between 'day jobs' where bj was my full-time job and I find even though I can do it I don't really enjoy it in those situations. So, currently I have the luxury of using my skills a couple of days a week to supplement my the income from my primary job. The "rules" I have developed are based as much on analysis of personal performance in live casino play as on standard analysis as you've presented here -- while a dataset of 1000s of session outcome records isn't as robust as billions of simulated hands played from a dataset standpoint, it can still provide insights into one's own "comfort zone" as well as revealing signals for when mental fatigue may be setting in. Establishing rules based on one's own foibles can help in moving past a stretch of bad variance -- with analysis, we can know that doing these same things under similar conditions have worked in the past x out of y times so keep going and the return to the mean is inevitable.

  10. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Optimized shoe bankroll concept, Wave you can have it. I want nothing to do with it, as I could care less of how many people you win over. Everyone should welcome positive variance opportunities, while also understanding that with those opportunities comes greater risk. For crying out loud, with proper money management skills that go along with everything else that all players should know, no one should rightfully give your concept a second thought. I am calling your idea a real bad proposition.

    Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but no one is entitled to their own facts...got some data to support your conculsion?

  11. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by UNCBear4SJ View Post
    Interesting work, Wave. In my 'day job', I work with data and stats so appreciate the efforts you're making.
    Very cool, thank you.
    Last edited by Wave; 04-04-2020 at 11:20 AM.

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but no one is entitled to their own facts...got some data to support your conculsion?
    My reference is BLACKJACK ATTACK Playing the Pros'Way 3rd Edition By Don Schlesinger. Backing it all up is three pages of acknowledgments in his book by many legends of the game and anyone who is important contributors to the mathematics of the game.

  13. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    My reference is BLACKJACK ATTACK Playing the Pros'Way 3rd Edition By Don Schlesinger. Backing it all up is three pages of acknowledgments in his book by many legends of the game and anyone who is important contributors to the mathematics of the game.
    Nice try, but I just checked the index of BJA III and there is no reference to a shoe bankroll, optimized shoe bankroll, Effective Expected Value, or Law of Diminishing Returns. I have no doubt Mr. Schlesinger will correct me if he has previously addressed this issue and I have overlooked it.

    Like I previously stated, this is a new concept, and it completely contradicts conventional thinking so people will have difficulty accepting it...I had trouble believing it at first. But when I started to chart the data and saw the Hourly EV curve flatten out I recognized the LDR in effect.

    Thank you for your challenges though, they always force me to reexamine my ideas...which is a good thing.
    Last edited by Wave; 04-04-2020 at 12:36 PM.

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