Thread: Probability of getting dealt a BJ

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Probability of getting dealt a BJ

How about a blackjack question for a distraction? This has probably been asked and answered before, but I couldn’t find it. I’ve read where the probability of getting dealt a BJ off the top of the deck is about 4.8%. What do the probabilities become at increasing counts (Hi-Lo) in a 6D game? Thanks for any help.

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Originally Posted by Norm
Great..thanks

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Originally Posted by Norm
Norm..would the probabilities change if I played 2 or more hands, heads up with the dealer? Any way to figure it out, with an Ace side count? Trying to see if a side bet can be beat. Thanks

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They would only change a tiny bit heads up with a shoe if you switched from always one hand to always two hands. They would change substantially with single deck or if you change the number of hands you play during a shoe.

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Originally Posted by Norm
They would only change a tiny bit heads up with a shoe if you switched from always one hand to always two hands. They would change substantially with single deck or if you change the number of hands you play during a shoe.
Thanks..that makes sense. What I‘ve figured is that for the side bet to be beatable, the BJ probability needs to be at least 14%. I’m thinking there has to be a TC/Ace count combo that would meet that. Any ideas on how to figure it? I’m the kind of guy that can work well with a formula/equation. Not so much on creating one. Thanks for any input.

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Originally Posted by Old new guy
Thanks..that makes sense. What I‘ve figured is that for the side bet to be beatable, the BJ probability needs to be at least 14%. I’m thinking there has to be a TC/Ace count combo that would meet that. Any ideas on how to figure it? I’m the kind of guy that can work well with a formula/equation. Not so much on creating one. Thanks for any input.
Old new guy,

Wow... 14% probability of a BJ? One combination would be if 13.22% of the shoe is A's, and 52.88% is X's: 2*0.1322*0.5288 = 0.1398. However, such a skewed shoe is very rare: the HiLo TC would be about +30.

What kind of sidebet are you analyzing? If you prefer to discuss it privately, PM me.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

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The graph Norm supplied is SO important for counters to understand. It is really the heart of counting.

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Originally Posted by CEO1
The graph Norm supplied is SO important for counters to understand. It is really the heart of counting.
Thise graphs that Norm supplied are for S17. They would be quite different for H17 games

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Originally Posted by ZeeBabar
Thise graphs that Norm supplied are for S17. They would be quite different for H17 games
The original question asked how the frequency of naturals changed as the TC increased. Norm provided several graphs, but the one that mattered was the one that showed the frequency of the blackjacks.

Obviously, S17 or H17 has nothing to do with that!

Don

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