See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Results 1 to 11 of 11

Thread: 20MAR2020 Graph of total cases of Covid-19 in US (Actual and Predicted)

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    20MAR2020 Graph of total cases of Covid-19 in US (Actual and Predicted)

    Here is my plot of total Covid-19 cases in US (Actual and Predicted)
    Attached Images Attached Images

  2. #2


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    So you have zero confidence social distancing and other measures intended to "flatten the curve" are going to any effect at all?

  3. #3


    0 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Do we ever do anything to “flatten the curve” or make any other sacrifices for..

    There an estimated 1 billion cases of the flu worldwide, resulting in about 650,000 deaths, while there are only approximately 134,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide till date. Fatality rate of the COVID-19, according to experts of the subject, is around 3-4 per cent. We are way more likely to contact the flu than the novel coronavirus.


    There are more than 1billion people suffering from hunger. What does it mean? One in every seven people on this planet doesn’t get sufficient food. In the last few months of this year, the number of death due to hunger are over 1.7 million. Statistics showed that around 9 million people die annually in hunger. Out of the total fatalities, there are 6 million children die in hunger annually worldwide. Do we f&$ing care, make any sacrifices?


    According to the WHO statistics, “around 7 million people die every year from exposure to fine particles in polluted air that lead to diseases such as stroke, heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and respiratory infections, including pneumonia.” 91% of total populations are living in polluted air. Do we carpool,drive Electric Vehicles, take Public transport?


    There over 3.5 million people die every year from water-related diseases. The painful reality of this number is that over 2.2 million of those deaths are children.


    There are around 800,000 people committing suicide every year on this planet. This meant, as per WHO documented, one person, committing suicide in every 40 seconds. According to the WHO, “Suicide occurs throughout the lifespan and is the second leading cause of death among 15-29-year-olds globally.”


    Every year natural disasters kill around 90000 people and affect close to 160 million people worldwide. Natural disasters include earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides, hurricanes, floods, wildfires, heatwaves and droughts. How much time, money goes to them? How much to our wars?


    Approximately 1.35 million people die each year as a result of road traffic crashes. 93% of the world’s fatalities on the roads occur in low- and middle-income countries, even though these countries have approximately 60% of the world’s vehicles. Road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death for children and young adults aged 5-29 years.


    The harmful use of alcohol results in 3.3 million deaths each year. Some 31 million persons have drug use disorders. Almost 11 million people inject drugs, of which 1.3 million are living with HIV, 5.5 million with hepatitis C, and 1 million with both HIV and hepatitis C.


    UN Women have shed light on the horrendous situation of the women in their reports. “It is estimated that of the 87000 women who were intentionally killed in 2017 globally, more than half (50000- 58 per cent) were killed by intimate partners or family members, meaning that 137 women across the world are killed by a member of their own family every day. More than a third (30000) of the women intentionally killed in 2017 were killed by their current or former intimate partner.”


    The question is why poor people are suffering and their urgent crisis is being ignored? Why is it less important for key players? Are they sons and daughters of lesser-God?


    Do we care about these... According to Edward Wilson, socio-biologist, Harvard University, “If everyone agreed to become vegetarian, leaving little or nothing for livestock, the present 1.4 billion hectares of arable land (3.5 billion acres) would support about 10 billion people.” The food crisis is coming much faster than the climate change, he has warned in his book “The Coming Famine”.


    We don’t have sufficient seafood to cater to the market 28 years from now. “The world’s oceans could be virtually emptied of fish by 2048. A study shows that if nothing changes, we will run out of seafood in 2048. If we want to preserve the ecosystems of the sea, change is needed.”


    Drinking water is another major challenge we are facing. Most of the countries are already victims of serious drinking water crisis but unfortunately, most people are keeping on discussing what caused damage to drinking water. If this continued, the planet will be out of drinking water in 20 years from now.


    “In the year 2000, half of the world’s rainforest had been wiped out. If we continue the rate of destruction, the rainforests will be gone at the end of the century, according to NASA.”


    “reports suggest the gruesome reality of slavery by noting that, “40 million people are living in slavery right now”. Out of this 40 million, 10 millions are children.”


    We are ending our resources, and replacing them with wastes. “Every year we dump a massive 2.12 billion tons of waste. If all this waste was put on trucks they would go around the world 24 times.” Five plastic garbage patches across the world’s oceans are mounting. It is a matter of a few years where there will be oceans without fishes. “The UN estimates that 51 trillion microplastic particles are present in oceans. That’s 500 times more than the total number of stars in our galaxy.”


    We don’t care about all this enough to make even one sacrifice, we watch our tax dollars go to kill people....Disgust...Norm, don’t ban me for this please..

  4. #4


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Do we ever do anything to “flatten the curve” or make any other sacrifices for..

    There an estimated 1 billion cases of the flu worldwide, resulting in about 650,000 deaths, while there are only approximately 134,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide till date. Fatality rate of the COVID-19, according to experts of the subject, is around 3-4 per cent. We are way more likely to contact the flu than the novel coronavirus.
    Actually, the transmission rate appears to be higher with COVID19 than the flu and the fatality rate is definitely much higher with COVID19. So, no, at this point in time, without the steps being taken to enforce social distancing, we'd be far more likely to contract COVID19 in the very near future and much more likely to die from it if we did.

    Can we all do more to make the world a better place for everyone on an ongoing basis? Of course. There are lots of things to be concerned about. But to paraphrase one governor I heard interviewed on a podcast this morning about his enforcing quarantine: Its hard to have a livelihood if you don't have a life.

    You can't advocate for the poor, the seas, reducing pollution, etc., if you're dead from COVID19 induced pneumonia.

  5. #5


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    It is also worth noting that the fatality rate of 1% depends upon sufficient medical resources (respirators) to treat all serious cases. If Covid 19 is allowed to spread willy nilly, then the number of people in critical condition would rapidly overwhelm the medical facilities ability to treatment, and the fatality rate would soar, as we saw happen in Italy.

  6. #6


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Zee, so does that mean we shouldn't do anything in this case where we can have a tangible effect to add to all the other situations we turn a blind eye to ?

  7. #7


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ummagumma View Post
    Zee, so does that mean we shouldn't do anything in this case where we can have a tangible effect to add to all the other situations we turn a blind eye to ?
    Here's another question along the same lines. Zee, what do you think would have been the appropriate response(s) to this virus?

  8. #8


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by 21frogman View Post
    Here's another question along the same lines. Zee, what do you think would have been the appropriate response(s) to this virus?
    Do not hold you breath on this one. He cannot even decide whether or not to split 8s.

  9. #9


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by 21frogman View Post
    Here's another question along the same lines. Zee, what do you think would have been the appropriate response(s) to this virus?
    Exactly. We more or less are doing the best we can to eradicate the problem at hand. What would Zee like to do to wipe out all the suicides in the world? And why is that relevant to solving the problem at hand?

    Don

  10. #10


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Zee, I'm sorry but I'm very tired of all your comments comparing covid-19 to the flu.

    Covid-19 is novel. Nobody has immunity to it yet. Likewise, the R0 is significantly higher than the flu. 1.3 vs ~2.5 is a HUGE difference, just pick a number, skip ahead a few rounds of transmission, and see for yourself.

    Pair these 2 facts together and you have a perfect storm (for the virus, that is).

    One worker comes into a factory, sick, and a week later 103/104 workers test positive. That simply doesn't happen with influenza. Not to mention covid-19 is about 10x deadlier (being a bit conservative). Disregarding mortality, also consider that many of those who recover have lost ~30% functional lung capacity. Also doesn't happen with the flu. Mild symptoms can turn into respiratory arrest in a matter of hours.

    Do you really want hospitals to be overwhelmed and not treating old guys like yourself because the 40 something year old has a better chance of recovering? So they kick you to the curb to die instead of treating you? Because that's what they will do if they have to make the choice.

    And if we just "let this thing run its course" hospitals WILL BE overwhelmed, badly, many times over. A lot more people will die if we go that route, possibly even you.

    Now, I didn't really read too much of that last comment above, but it seems like you're making some philosophical statement that hunger and poverty are more important, etc etc. Sure, they're important. But what the hell do you want, we just ignore the immediate, large problem at hand?

    It might help for you to realize that those in poverty/socially disadvantaged will be disproportionately hit by this virus, anyways. They tend to eat worse, have a higher chance of smoking, might be less able to pay for treatment, are more likely to have untreated underlying conditions, I could go on...

    But sure, we can just let the poor and old people get culled away and start tackling hunger and the environment.

    I care very much about the environment, but it doesn't mean we should ignore this, and it sure isn't the flu.

  11. #11


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by BJcountingmaster View Post
    Here is my plot of total Covid-19 cases in US (Actual and Predicted)
    Nice Prediction. As of late tonight right at 105K cases here in the States.

Similar Threads

  1. Covid 19 virus
    By BJGenius007 in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 151
    Last Post: 04-15-2020, 06:43 AM
  2. Covid-19
    By muckz in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 22
    Last Post: 03-25-2020, 08:23 PM
  3. COVID-19 joke
    By RRicci in forum Bits and Pieces
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 03-15-2020, 06:32 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.