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Thread: Composition Dependent Basic Strategy, Running Count EV, etc.

  1. #1


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    Composition Dependent Basic Strategy, Running Count EV, etc.

    Hello all,

    I am reading with interest Don's discussion of Complete Basic Strategy ("Complete Basic Strategy EVs," Appendix A, "Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way' - 3rd edition).

    Question 1) I realize it's not much, but exactly how much player advantage can be garnered from a player using Complete Basic Strategy and flat-betting (no counting, no progressions) in, say, a 6 deck, H17, -0.43 player advantage game? (Sorry if I missed the answer in Don's book.).

    Question 2) I was surprised that the Complete Basic Strategy Tables don't take into account all of the cards from the previous hands, only the cards from the current hand. I guess that's where the Illustrious 18, the Catch-22 (pg. 375), and the Fab 4 come into play?

    Question 3) For the purposes of an absolutely flawless, Perfect Basic Strategy, I guess it would be impossible, short of using a computer, for a player to take into account the exact value (and not 'just' an approximation, as with counting) of every card already played?

    Question 4) If this were possible, could it give the flat betting player the advantage in a single deck, double deck, or six deck game?

    Question 5) Would it be possible to integrate Complete Basic Strategy Tables with all of the 'most influential' indices, producing a master set of charts that would obviate the need to consult multiple charts (e.g., Complete Basic Strategy Tables, Deviation Play Tables) and also perhaps eliminate confusion as to what decision to make if faced with data advocating competing decisions?

    Question 6) For a flat bettor, could someone please tell me the approximate correlation between a round or rounds with any positive running (not true) count and a win on the next hand for, say, a 6-deck, H17, -0.43 player advantage game?

    Question 7) For example, whenever, say, Rounds 1-5 of the above-mentioned 6-deck game reflect any positive running (not true) count, it seems that Round 6 will win more than 50% of the time. If this is true, wouldn't this be a good way to avoid playing a whole shoe and thereby not look like a counter because you are just flat betting only Rounds 1 through 5 and then betting big on Round 6, after which you leave the table, repeat at another casino, etc. Or, if the player would indeed have an advantage for Round 6 in the aforementioned example, perhaps said advantage is too small to capitalize on?

    I realize my questions are not limited to one topic. So, if possible, please respond in a manner similar to the following:

    Question 1) "Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx."

    Question 2) "Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx."

    Question 3) "Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx."

    Question 4) "Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx."

    Question 5) "Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx."

    Question 6) "Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx."

    Question 7) "Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx."

    Please reconsider before posting a reply that contains nonproductive answers. Snide, disrespectful, or overly terse comments tend to, among other things, derail the thread.

    Thank you in advance for your replies!

  2. #2
    Senior Member JBourne's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    Question 2) I was surprised that the Complete Basic Strategy Tables don't take into account all of the cards from the previous hands, only the cards from the current hand.
    I think you have missed something really big: the definition of basic strategy. It is the optimal strategy based on a full set of cards (without counting). It assumes you don't know what is coming, and you don't know what has been seen, so the entire set of cards is always the same size, with only your hand and the dealer's upcard being known.

    By definition, a flat-betting player can only have better odds vs. playing perfect basic strategy if you play deviations. This of course requires counting and is no longer basic strategy. You can also increase your advantage by not playing all hands, but technically that's not flat betting because your min bet is zero.

    Most of your questions above don't make sense because you have not framed them in a valid way. Maybe review them and revise as needed.

  3. #3


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    1, the answers are on page 394.

    2 The reason that the charts do not reflect the cards of the previous hands is that they are basic strategy charts and not counting charts period. Because of this do not associate the I18 and Fab four with basic strategy charts for non-counters.

    3 99.999% true, that it would be impossible, "unless using a computer" except for some rare individual.

    4 It depends on the upfront house edge. A single deck game with good rules might work.

    5 Yes, that's what card counting is for.

    6 The way that you wrote up the question leaves so many variables that it cannot be answered accurately in any fashion.

    7 Complete voodoo thinking on your part.
    Last edited by BoSox; 02-06-2020 at 05:00 PM.

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    You seem to be an intelligent person, why the fixation on flat betting? You can learn to count.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by JBourne View Post
    I think you have missed something really big: the definition of basic strategy. It is the optimal strategy based on a full set of cards (without counting). It assumes you don't know what is coming, and you don't know what has been seen, so the entire set of cards is always the same size, with only your hand and the dealer's upcard being known.

    By definition, a flat-betting player can only have better odds vs. playing perfect basic strategy if you play deviations. This of course requires counting and is no longer basic strategy. You can also increase your advantage by not playing all hands, but technically that's not flat betting because your min bet is zero.

    Most of your questions above don't make sense because you have not framed them in a valid way. Maybe review them and revise as needed.
    Very good response here.

  6. #6


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    Overkill, are all of your questions related to trying to exploit some supposed flaws in playing an online blackjack game?

  7. #7


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    JBourne, maybe we are miscommunicating. I think its very limiting to have a basic strategy based only on your current hand. Why isnt there an "Advanced," non basic strategy that is totally independent of the count that takes into account the exact value of every card already played? I think a computer can do this for every hand, but perhaps not a human.

    Thanks, Zee. I dont think I could handle all the losing sessions counters have to endure.

    Thanks BoSox - no, I am not trying to exploit an online game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    JBourne, maybe we are miscommunicating. I think its very limiting to have a basic strategy based only on your current hand. Why isnt there an "Advanced," non basic strategy that is totally independent of the count that takes into account the exact value of every card already played? I think a computer can do this for every hand, but perhaps not a human.
    Correct and correct. So what is your point? You are aware that using a computer in a casino can lead to jail time, right?

    There is a definition of basic strategy that is accepted by most of the BJ community, and it doesn't include tracking every card in the deck! That is card counting. How can you possibly want to take account of every card that has been played and actually refer to that as BASIC strategy??? What sense would that make?

    Don

  9. #9


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    I agree. Taking into account the exact value of every card already played would be an "advanced, non basic strategy" (please see my post just above your most recent post).

    Interestingly, I found some info. online today that I was curious about that most of you veterans probably already know. Even if we could use a laptop in the casino and play perfectly based on the cards already played, the house would still have the edge!! (This is correct, right?).

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