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Thread: Dealer bust %

  1. #1


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    Dealer bust %

    I manually play from a 6 deck shoe and, using a program and database I developed, keep track of all results including the true count. I stop the shoe at card 334, 4.5 deck penetration. I follow the basic strategy, employ hi-lo and the illustrious 18.
    After 37 shoes here are my results for the dealer busting when the tc >1:
    TC = 2 : 12.8%, TC = 3 : 11.4%, TC = 4 : 11.3%, TC = 5 : 3.84, TC = 6 : 11.1%.
    The dealer’s bust average is 11.6%.
    Does this make sense?
    For the record I started with 5K, bet $25 units and have made $2,400.00.
    Thanks.

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Moon View Post
    I manually play from a 6 deck shoe and, using a program and database I developed, keep track of all results including the true count. I stop the shoe at card 334, 4.5 deck penetration. I follow the basic strategy, employ hi-lo and the illustrious 18.
    After 37 shoes here are my results for the dealer busting when the tc >1:
    TC = 2 : 12.8%, TC = 3 : 11.4%, TC = 4 : 11.3%, TC = 5 : 3.84, TC = 6 : 11.1%.
    The dealer’s bust average is 11.6%.
    Does this make sense?
    For the record I started with 5K, bet $25 units and have made $2,400.00.
    Thanks.
    Forget it guys, I screwed up.
    The actual rates are:
    TC = 2 : 25.9%, TC = 3 : 23.6%, TC = 4 : 22.7%, TC = 5 : 7.7%, TC = 6 : 22.2%
    Apologies, looks like the bust rate is on track to go up over time.
    Thanks again.

  4. #4
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    This is not really relevant, but I am curious how you get to card 334 in a 6 deck shoe (52×6=312). Was that a typo or am I missing something?

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    This is not really relevant, but I am curious how you get to card 334 in a 6 deck shoe (52×6=312). Was that a typo or am I missing something?
    Obviously 234 cards.

    Don

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Moon View Post
    Forget it guys, I screwed up.
    The actual rates are:
    TC = 2 : 25.9%, TC = 3 : 23.6%, TC = 4 : 22.7%, TC = 5 : 7.7%, TC = 6 : 22.2%
    Apologies, looks like the bust rate is on track to go up over time.
    Thanks again.
    Bust rate for TC +5 looks like a typo also. Or, your sample size is so small that you simply have an anomaly. Finally, as per Norm's charts, dealer bust rate will obviously be higher for all counts if he is required to complete his hand, which is normally the case with several players at the table. All the values are lower against a lone player, as explained by Norm's text alongside the charts.

    Don

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