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  1. #1


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    Session Bankroll Question

    Asking for a friend since I realize I have no clue how to utilize the qfit calculator tools.

    I am planning on having $75 as my average bet.
    I am only playing for 4 hours which I estimate to be 320 hands.
    The winrate is likely -$0.50 per hand.
    I believe the standard deviation is $1529 ( 1.14 x 75 x sqrt(320) ).

    My question is how do I calculate the odds of tapping out given x where x is the amount of money I bring.

    I also have a very hard time conveying why $1529 does not mean a 16% ROR ( (100-68) /2 ) where $1529 is the given bankroll. The person asking keeps insisting bringing $1529 means not tapping out 16% of the time. Can someone clarify?
    Last edited by FishBear; 01-23-2020 at 05:42 PM.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by FishBear View Post
    I am planning on having $75 as my average bet.
    I am only playing for 4 hours which I estimate to be 320 hands.
    The win rate is likely -$0.50 per hand.
    So, you're not counting? You have a negative win rate? Are you varying your bet? Are you just playing BS? You haven't been very clear.

    Quote Originally Posted by FishBear View Post
    I believe the standard deviation is $1529 ( 1.14 x 75 x sqrt(320) ).
    Only if you flat bet. If you are varying your bet, you can't use the average bet to calculate the s.d. The s.d. will be larger than what you're stating. You need to be more clear as to what you're doing. Not much of what you've written makes sense.

    You're implying a negative edge of 0.67%, although you haven't given us any rules or anything. So, you're supposed to lose $160, and the total s.d. is (maybe) $1,529. If you bring $1,529, your ROR is much greater than 16%, because you can't just calculate the end-point value of a one-s.d. loss (which would be $1,689, in any event). You have to realize that you could lose the entire $1,529 BEFORE you finish playing the 320 hands.

    In any event, try to be a bit clearer as to what you're doing.

    Don

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  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    Can you please tell me what the point is of posting this photo over and over again, ad nauseam? Do you think that maybe its usefulness has run its course?

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Can you please tell me what the point is of posting this photo over and over again, ad nauseam? Do you think that maybe its usefulness has run its course?

    Don
    I'm laughing at whatever I posted it in response to.

    No, there will be more things I will laugh at.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    I'm laughing at whatever I posted it in response to.

    No, there will be more things I will laugh at.
    You don't seem to understand that it has just become annoying.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    You don't seem to understand that it has just become annoying.

    Don
    me.jpg

    Good-Fellas-Hilarious.jpg

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    You don't seem to understand that it has just become annoying.

    Don
    +1
    Please, Wave, loose (sic) the pictures, or at least get some new material.

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    Quote Originally Posted by snakeplisskin View Post
    +1
    Please, Wave, loose (sic) the pictures, or at least get some new material.
    Lol! Kiss of death...now that I know it annoys people I will use it exclusively...LMFAO!!!

    Good-Fellas-Hilarious.jpg

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    Lol! Kiss of death...now that I know it annoys people I will use it exclusively...LMFAO!!!

    Good-Fellas-Hilarious.jpg
    This statement says a lot about you, your personality that enjoys annoying people is one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    This statement says a lot about you, your personality that enjoys annoying people is one.
    Lighten Up Zeebabar.jpg

  12. #12


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    Thanks Don.

    I'm asking for a recreational player who is not card counting. I understand this is theoretically a losing game. The question is how do I calculate the ROR given a 320 hand constraint. I'm assuming near perfect basic strategy and the house edge to be around -0.67%. If I had to guess, the game is probably a standard shoe game, so: h17, das, da2, rsa, no surr.

    He is using a betting system where I gauged $75 to be a rough estimate as the average bet. Based on your tone, it seems like I cannot just use 1.14 unit as stdev.

    The betting system to be precise is to start with 2 units and increase the bet for every previous win. The maximum to be risked is 5 units. If he loses a bet then he'll return to 2 units. 1 unit is $25.

    I ran a very quick simplified sim of 10M hands with "rand() < 0.5" as the factor to increasing a unit or going back to 2 units, and I arrived at 2.875 or so units ($71.88) as the average bet.

    50: 4,999,300
    75: 2,498,470
    100: 1,250,711
    125: 1,251,519
    (yes I see what they converge to)


    I get in the actual world, there are splits and doubling in BJ and the game is not 50-50 but something along the lines of 42-48-10. I assume all this overcomplicates the equation when all I want is a rough estimate (within 5% is fine) on one's ROR after 320 hands.

    So my question is approx what are the odds of tapping out (within 5% accuracy) if he brought
    a) $1500
    b) $2000
    c) $2500

    My assumption is there exists a ROR formula where I can just plug in
    - sample size
    - expected value,
    - average bet,
    - stdev, and
    - session bankrol
    to arrive at an approx answer.

    My gut tells me $1500 and even $2500 is not enough (impractical) as a session bankroll, because he is likely to go bust a high frequency of the time, but I am unable to convince him that without the actual math. He seems fixated on the idea that the tail end of 1stdev is a good estimate as to what a session bankroll should be.
    Last edited by FishBear; 01-23-2020 at 11:11 PM.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by FishBear View Post
    Thanks Don.

    I'm asking for a recreational player who is not card counting. I understand this is theoretically a losing game. The question is how do I calculate the ROR given a 320 hand constraint. I'm assuming near perfect basic strategy and the house edge to be around -0.67%. If I had to guess, the game is probably a standard shoe game, so: h17, das, da2, rsa, no surr.

    He is using a betting system where I gauged $75 to be a rough estimate as the average bet. Based on your tone, it seems like I cannot just use 1.14 unit as stdev.

    The betting system to be precise is to start with 2 units and increase the bet for every previous win. The maximum to be risked is 5 units. If he loses a bet then he'll return to 2 units. 1 unit is $25.

    I ran a very quick simplified sim of 10M hands with "rand() < 0.5" as the factor to increasing a unit or going back to 2 units, and I arrived at 2.875 or so units ($71.88) as the average bet.

    50: 4,999,300
    75: 2,498,470
    100: 1,250,711
    125: 1,251,519
    (yes I see what they converge to)


    I get in the actual world, there are splits and doubling in BJ and the game is not 50-50 but something along the lines of 42-48-10. I assume all this overcomplicates the equation when all I want is a rough estimate (within 5% is fine) on one's ROR after 320 hands.

    So my question is approx what are the odds of tapping out (within 5% accuracy) if he brought
    a) $1500
    b) $2000
    c) $2500

    My assumption is there exists a ROR formula where I can just plug in
    - sample size
    - expected value,
    - average bet,
    - stdev, and
    - session bankrol
    to arrive at an approx answer.

    My gut tells me $1500 and even $2500 is not enough (impractical) as a session bankroll, because he is likely to go bust a high frequency of the time, but I am unable to convince him that without the actual math. He seems fixated on the idea that the tail end of 1stdev is a good estimate as to what a session bankroll should be.
    The correct answer is if you are not counting, or shuffle tracking, or hole carding, or ace steering, do not play. Otherwise, in the long run, your friend is throwing their money away.
    Last edited by Wave; 01-23-2020 at 11:59 PM.

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