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Thread: Session Bankroll Question

  1. #11


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    So, let me get this straight. OP has a right to LOOSE money without your scorn...but I don't have a right to WIN less money when I occasionally play for lower EV without your scorn?

    Here's your stupid picture.


    Attachment 3982
    Ironically, usually it's stupid people that spell "lose" as "loose."*

    *I'm not saying you're stupid. Just stupid people in general F this easy one up.

  2. #12


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    I'm laughing at whatever I posted it in response to.

    No, there will be more things I will laugh at.
    You don't seem to understand that it has just become annoying.

    Don

  3. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    OK. Clearer. And your gut is absolutely correct. I'm assuming you don't have BJA3 and are not familiar with the "premature bumping into the barrier syndrome" that I describe beginning on page 122. It's a very important idea, and it's precisely applicable to your question.

    In any event, I recalculated the s.d. based on your description of the betting style and frequencies of the various bet sizes. Instead of 1.14, I get about 1.76, so you can see how that's rather important. We now have that e.v. for 320 hands is -$160, while s.d. is more along the lines of $2,361 (which is: 1.76 x $75 x 320^0.5). So, you can see that a one-s.d. loss AT THE END of the four hours is -$2,521, and that occurs roughly 16% of the time. But, what you don't know is that the probability of losing that amount is roughly DOUBLE the 16%, because of the barrier phenomenon that I mentioned above.

    Bottom line: I'd bring easily $4,000 or more for such a trip. Bringing $2,500, your friend will tap out almost once every three trips he takes. Give me a little more time, and I'll get more numbers for you. The problem with using all the calculators is that they aren't designed for negative e.v.; rather, they're designed for counting, where the e.v. is always positive. But I know how to trick them to be able to get answers. So, I'll get back to you.

    Don
    Just used the calculator (was surprised to see that it now accepts negative numbers for win rate. Didn't used to.). I love it when a plan comes together! So, as almost predicted perfectly, the ROR for $2,500 is 31.1%. And, if you bring $4,000 instead, as I suggested, it drops to 10%.

    Write back with more questions, if you have any.

    Don

  4. #14


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    Don,

    What are the odds of tapping out (within 5% accuracy) if he brought

    a) $1500
    b) $2000
    c) $2500

    You only did the $2500, but forgot about a & b.

  5. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    Don,

    What are the odds of tapping out (within 5% accuracy) if he brought

    a) $1500
    b) $2000
    c) $2500

    You only did the $2500, but forgot about a & b.
    I didn't really "forget." I just knew the numbers were so big that no one would probably care. In any event: a) 54.8%; b) 42.0%.

    Don

  6. #16


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    You don't seem to understand that it has just become annoying.

    Don
    me.jpg

    Good-Fellas-Hilarious.jpg
    "This is a discipline thing. You either do it right or you don't do it at all."

    Don Schlesinger, pg 2, "Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way", 3rd Edition.

  7. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies View Post
    Ironically, usually it's stupid people that spell "lose" as "loose."*

    *I'm not saying you're stupid. Just stupid people in general F this easy one up.
    Everyone makes mistakes, good catch.
    "This is a discipline thing. You either do it right or you don't do it at all."

    Don Schlesinger, pg 2, "Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way", 3rd Edition.

  8. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    I didn't really "forget." I just knew the numbers were so big that no one would probably care. In any event: a) 54.8%; b) 42.0%.

    Don
    Well I'm sure the OP and his friend would've definitely cared... so you mean to tell me that playing merely the 50-75-100-125 positive progression with only a $1500 bank one would bankrupt over half the time within only 4 hrs of play??? That seems crazy, especially since I've seen ppl bringing SIGNIFICANTLY less than that amount to play with (like $500 and playing $50+)

    I actually play this level myself, and I have never once brought more than $3k with me to the table and before even played with wife and we each only had $1500 and playing 100-250! Here's the kicker: We usually won and hardly ever went bankrupt, yet we were playing double this level! So would you say we were just incredibly lucky that we started winning right away upon sitting down since we rarely ever ran out of chips? And no, we aren't counters but play flawless BS and employ offensive/defensive hand interaction.

  9. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    Well I'm sure the OP and his friend would've definitely cared... so you mean to tell me that playing merely the 50-75-100-125 positive progression with only a $1500 bank one would bankrupt over half the time within only 4 hrs of play??? That seems crazy, especially since I've seen ppl bringing SIGNIFICANTLY less than that amount to play with (like $500 and playing $50+)

    I actually play this level myself, and I have never once brought more than $3k with me to the table and before even played with wife and we each only had $1500 and playing 100-250! Here's the kicker: We usually won and hardly ever went bankrupt, yet we were playing double this level! So would you say we were just incredibly lucky that we started winning right away upon sitting down since we rarely ever ran out of chips? And no, we aren't counters but play flawless BS and employ offensive/defensive hand interaction.
    Yes, you were incredibly lucky. The ROR numbers don't surprise me at all. Betting $125 a hand, with splits and doubles, you can have as many as eight bets ($1,000) on the table on a single hand!! And, of course, you can lose them all. Betting $250 a hand and bringing only $3,000, thinking it will always last, is really not very realistic or prudent at all.

    Don

  10. #20


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    Thanks for your info, Don.

    Is there anyway to send you a private msg? I have tried adding you as a contact, but not sure how to message you privately or if this site even supports that. If you know how to send me a msg please do so. Thanks.

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