Asking for a friend since I realize I have no clue how to utilize the qfit calculator tools.

I am planning on having $75 as my average bet.

I am only playing for 4 hours which I estimate to be 320 hands.

The winrate is likely -$0.50 per hand.

I believe the standard deviation is $1529 ( 1.14 x 75 x sqrt(320) ).

My question is how do I calculate the odds of tapping out given x where x is the amount of money I bring.

I also have a very hard time conveying why $1529 does not mean a 16% ROR ( (100-68) /2 ) where $1529 is the given bankroll. The person asking keeps insisting bringing $1529 means not tapping out 16% of the time. Can someone clarify?

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