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Thread: Probable Voodoo Thinking Regarding Slot Machines

  1. #1


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    Probable Voodoo Thinking Regarding Slot Machines

    I'm hesitant to post the following as I suspect I will get pummelled, but here goes:

    Situation A: Consider a lone slot machine patron in a casino with 150 slot machines at 10 am on a Tuesday. It has been 'dead' in the casino with respect to the slots for the 24 hours prior to her arrival, and the slot machines were barely touched. She plays $1.00 per pull, and she pulls a total of 10 times from each of the 150 machines.

    Situation B: Consider the same lone patron in the same casino playing, again, $1.00 per pull, and she again pulls a total of 10 times from each of the 150 machines. But in this situation, the casino was PACKED in the 24 hours prior to her arrival, and each slot machine was played A LOT.

    Is it Voodoo thinking to say that she is more likely to make more money (or lose less money) in Situation B because much more of the losing pulls (which of course greatly outnumber the winning pulls) were 'eaten up' by the plethora of patrons in the previous busy 24 hours? (But, in the same vein, the WINNING pulls were ALSO 'eaten up' by the patrons in the previous 24 hours, thus - Vooodoo thinking, correct?)

    But let's assume that each slot pays an average of $100 in 5 pulls out of every 200 pulls (I am just making these numbers up). So, 195 pulls are losing pulls. Isn't it better to have a packed casino 'eat up' the 98% or so of the losing pulls, and, sure, SOME of the winning pulls, than to play in Situation A. In other words, isn't she more likely to play slot machines that are just about to win in Situation B vs. Situation A due to the sheer number of gross losing pulls eliminated by other patrons in Situation B? Or is it simply a matter of proportionality?

  2. #2


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    That's an old myth that's been around for many years.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    I'm hesitant to post the following as I suspect I will get pummelled, but here goes:

    Situation A: Consider a lone slot machine patron in a casino with 150 slot machines at 10 am on a Tuesday. It has been 'dead' in the casino with respect to the slots for the 24 hours prior to her arrival, and the slot machines were barely touched. She plays $1.00 per pull, and she pulls a total of 10 times from each of the 150 machines.

    Situation B: Consider the same lone patron in the same casino playing, again, $1.00 per pull, and she again pulls a total of 10 times from each of the 150 machines. But in this situation, the casino was PACKED in the 24 hours prior to her arrival, and each slot machine was played A LOT.

    Is it Voodoo thinking to say that she is more likely to make more money (or lose less money) in Situation B because much more of the losing pulls (which of course greatly outnumber the winning pulls) were 'eaten up' by the plethora of patrons in the previous busy 24 hours? (But, in the same vein, the WINNING pulls were ALSO 'eaten up' by the patrons in the previous 24 hours, thus - Vooodoo thinking, correct?)

    But let's assume that each slot pays an average of $100 in 5 pulls out of every 200 pulls (I am just making these numbers up). So, 195 pulls are losing pulls. Isn't it better to have a packed casino 'eat up' the 98% or so of the losing pulls, and, sure, SOME of the winning pulls, than to play in Situation A. In other words, isn't she more likely to play slot machines that are just about to win in Situation B vs. Situation A due to the sheer number of gross losing pulls eliminated by other patrons in Situation B? Or is it simply a matter of proportionality?
    Sigh. Where do you come up with these preposterous ideas? In your above scenarios, absolutely NOTHING whatsoever matters. NOTHING. Have you ever, in your entire life, read a single book on the mathematics of casino gambling? Don't you think it's about time you did?

    Don

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Sigh. Where do you come up with these preposterous ideas? In your above scenarios, absolutely NOTHING whatsoever matters. NOTHING. Have you ever, in your entire life, read a single book on the mathematics of casino gambling? Don't you think it's about time you did?

    Don
    So, does anyone know for how many years and on how many different forums Overkill irritated Don?

    Don, couldn't your message have communicated the same idea without being condesending by just saying something simple like "that's not how slots work"?

    Okay, I'm done here.

    Norm, please delete my account.

  5. #5


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    There are so many nutcases theories on how to win at casino games from progressions to "reading randomness", that the OP's here is pretty tame. Again, its an old myth that slots are "ready to pay" after being played for long periods.

    That said, are there beatable slots? Absolutely!

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    So, does anyone know for how many years and on how many different forums Overkill irritated Don?

    Don, couldn't your message have communicated the same idea without being condesending by just saying something simple like "that's not how slots work"?

    Okay, I'm done here.

    Norm, please delete my account.
    Thank God. Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out! Good riddance. Maybe, after being on forums for how long, you'll one day be able to recognize a troll when you see one.

    Don

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    So, does anyone know for how many years and on how many different forums Overkill irritated Don?

    Don, couldn't your message have communicated the same idea without being condesending by just saying something simple like "that's not how slots work"?

    Okay, I'm done here.

    Norm, please delete my account.
    Give us one last full page photo.

    The irony is your signature uses a DonS quotation.

  8. #8


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    Wave, before you go, you should know that you would have been able to understand Don much better if you just understood the meaning behind Don's quote that is written at the end of all of your posts. You see, Don is a perfectionist, and at the very least expects newer players to pay attention to truthfully meaningful posts from anyone when they sometimes do appear. Otherwise how else will they learn how to separate the wheat from the chaff? Don may be tough at times but that is only because he wants everyone to succeed and he knows that you have to actually earn every dollar that you make in a casino.

    Here is that quote again:

    "This is a discipline thing. You either do it right or you don't do it at all.

    Don Schlesinger, pg 2, "Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way", 3rd Edition."
    Last edited by BoSox; 03-03-2020 at 01:10 PM.

  9. #9


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    Don,

    If I am accurately reading between the lines of your first reply to my slots post, I understand your need for subtlety. If I am 'reading you right,' then you believe I am 'onto' a million dollar idea. But thanks for being covert about it. I agree on the need for stealth and feigned antipathy for my slots post.

    Just kidding!

    I wanted to post the above humor right after I read your first reply to my slots post, but I didnt get around to it.

    But, seriously, Don, I am a bit hurt by what I perceive as you referring to me as a troll in your second reply to my slots post. My slots post was posted by me in all seriousness.

    I have respected you and asked you questions on multiple forums for probably over 10 years now. We have a small amount of 'history.' Because I hold you in such high regard, your opinion (even of me personally) matters. So, ouch. I had thought you viewed me, dare I say, respected me as a sometimes annoying yet transparent, self-recriminating, respectful, persistent, and eager-to-learn student of the game.

    I see you as a very intelligent man who has little patience for illogical thoughts. And, up until now, I had thought that when you get upset with someone, maybe it's because you want them to 'get it' and/or not spread unsound ideas. (And by the way, if I post a mathematically unsound question and others reply with doses of truth or reality, people on this forum can really learn and benefit as perhaps they too were stuck in faulty, money losing thoughts.).

    I apologize if you were not referring to me as a troll. But, again, if you were, it hurt my feelings. I realize this is not a 'feel good,' hand-holding, kum ba yah celebration of sensitivity forum, and that folks here are serious about succeeding at blackjack, but I still think that, toward that end, we can act respectfully toward one another.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    Don,

    If I am accurately reading between the lines of your first reply to my slots post, I understand your need for subtlety. If I am 'reading you right,' then you believe I am 'onto' a million dollar idea. But thanks for being covert about it. I agree on the need for stealth and feigned antipathy for my slots post.

    Just kidding!

    I wanted to post the above humor right after I read your first reply to my slots post, but I didnt get around to it.

    But, seriously, Don, I am a bit hurt by what I perceive as you referring to me as a troll in your second reply to my slots post. My slots post was posted by me in all seriousness.

    I have respected you and asked you questions on multiple forums for probably over 10 years now. We have a small amount of 'history.' Because I hold you in such high regard, your opinion (even of me personally) matters. So, ouch. I had thought you viewed me, dare I say, respected me as a sometimes annoying yet transparent, self-recriminating, respectful, persistent, and eager-to-learn student of the game.

    I see you as a very intelligent man who has little patience for illogical thoughts. And, up until now, I had thought that when you get upset with someone, maybe it's because you want them to 'get it' and/or not spread unsound ideas. (And by the way, if I post a mathematically unsound question and others reply with doses of truth or reality, people on this forum can really learn and benefit as perhaps they too were stuck in faulty, money losing thoughts.).

    I apologize if you were not referring to me as a troll. But, again, if you were, it hurt my feelings. I realize this is not a 'feel good,' hand-holding, kum ba yah celebration of sensitivity forum, and that folks here are serious about succeeding at blackjack, but I still think that, toward that end, we can act respectfully toward one another.
    I think Don was referring to The a Wave, who I thought was a relative newbie. Same thing with CIF. What with folks constantly changing handles?

  11. #11


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    Don,

    If I am accurately reading between the lines of your first reply to my slots post, I understand your need for subtlety. If I am 'reading you right,' then you believe I am 'onto' a million dollar idea. But thanks for being covert about it. I agree on the need for stealth and feigned antipathy for my slots post.

    Just kidding!

    I wanted to post the above humor right after I read your first reply to my slots post, but I didn't get around to it.

    But, seriously, Don, I am a bit hurt by what I perceive as you referring to me as a troll in your second reply to my slots post. My slots post was posted by me in all seriousness.

    I have respected you and asked you questions on multiple forums for probably over 10 years now. We have a small amount of 'history.' Because I hold you in such high regard, your opinion (even of me personally) matters. So, ouch. I had thought you viewed me, dare I say, respected me as a sometimes annoying yet transparent, self-recriminating, respectful, persistent, and eager-to-learn student of the game.

    I see you as a very intelligent man who has little patience for illogical thoughts. And, up until now, I had thought that when you get upset with someone, maybe it's because you want them to 'get it' and/or not spread unsound ideas. (And by the way, if I post a mathematically unsound question and others reply with doses of truth or reality, people on this forum can really learn and benefit as perhaps they too were stuck in faulty, money losing thoughts.).

    I apologize if you were not referring to me as a troll. But, again, if you were, it hurt my feelings. I realize this is not a 'feel good,' hand-holding, kum ba yah celebration of sensitivity forum, and that folks here are serious about succeeding at blackjack, but I still think that, toward that end, we can act respectfully toward one another.
    You have my apologies. I agree with most everything you've written above. Your assessments are correct in many different ways. But, for someone who has, in fact, been on the scene for 10 years, you took me completely off guard with such an outrageous post. It would have been easier for me to say nothing at all. But I was beside myself that you could have concocted such an unbelievably illogical scenario. Why would it ever make the slightest bit of difference as to how a group of people play a group of slight machines???

    "I see you as a very intelligent man who has little patience for illogical thoughts." More or less summarizes the whole affair.

    Anyway, sorry to have hurt your feelings. Just try to get a few decent basic books on the mathematics of gambling, and try to avoid these terribly voodoo thoughts that you permit yourself to have from time to time.

    Don

  12. #12


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    Thank you, Don. Apology accepted!

    I respect you even more now.

  13. #13
    Senior Member MJGolf's Avatar
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    While the above quote was TMI Overkill, you did mention one thing that could be quite helpful in trying BJ again/Card Counting OCD tendencies can be helpful in the repetitive, boring, tedious part of card counting. Maybe you can use that to your benefit.
    "Women and cats will do as they please, and Men and dogs should just relax and get used to the idea" --- Robert A. Heinlein

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