I have $20,000++ in coupons to use, but which expert is right on how to bet them?

[Pariah]

Who is right about coupons? Shackleford vs Grosjean?

I respect both of these guys tremendously, but they disagree on a very important action I need to make:

I have $22,000 in coupon chips to use over the next year, but the 2 odds experts I found, Shackelford "Wizard of Odds" and Grosjean disagree on coupons.

I get three types (terminology consistent with Shackleford & Grosjean):

*Note: All coupons are restricted to even money bets (with BJ being only exception)

Coupon A:
1 $30 "Match Play*" coupon per day

Coupon B:
1 $20 "Promotional Chip" or "Funny Chips" per day.

Coupon C:
1 $10 "Non-negotiable" chip per day

Shackelford's analysis is found here: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/

Note: Shackelford mentions Grosjean, and he states their disagreement at the end. However, he says himself he does not know who is right.

Grosjean's analysis is found here: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...ouponsbjfo.pdf

At $22,000/year in coupons I want to play these efficiently.

**This is a big difference,' Shackleford rates Match Play chips on BJ at 46% (even less than baccarat!) of face value while Grosjean rates them at 51.9%.**

They both agree on Promotional chips and non-chashable chips that BJ is the best bet.

The BJ games offered:
Game 1: CSM, H17, LS, DAS, RSA, RS4, BJ 3:2 (-0.37 adv), $10/min

Game 2: 8dShoe 5dPen, S17, LS, DAS, RSA, RS4, (-0.56 adv), $30/min

Additionally, there is a final twist in this puzzle. This is an Asian casino. All the accusations online of cheating, I actually also suspect is a likely possibility in BJ. This is based on counting 100s of hours of observations and counting (seeing a lot of high RC counts, Aces often grouped suspiciously with table full of low cards).

[Meistro123]

Do you mean CSM for game 1? Otherwise you should include the penetration. What other games can the coupons be used on?

how do coupons b and c work?

[Pokerplayer]

So are you going to play three card poker?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Pariah]

Do you mean CSM for game 1? Otherwise you should include the penetration. What other games can the coupons be used on?

how do coupons b and c work?

Yes, csm thank you.

...Restricted to even money bets

...please see above references for explanations about how these coupons work.

[grnmax]

Eliot Jacobson has written on this topic also, if you want a third viewpoint.

[ShipTheCookies]

Who is right about coupons? Shackleford vs Grosjean?

I respect both of these guys tremendously, but they disagree on a very important action I need to make:

I have $22,000 in coupon chips to use over the next year, but the 2 odds experts I found, Shackelford "Wizard of Odds" and Grosjean disagree on coupons.

I get three types (terminology consistent with Shackleford & Grosjean):

*Note: All coupons are restricted to even money bets (with BJ being only exception)

Coupon A:
1 $30 "Match Play*" coupon per day

Coupon B:
1 $20 "Promotional Chip" or "Funny Chips" per day.

Coupon C:
1 $10 "Non-negotiable" chip per day

Shackelford's analysis is found here: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/

Note: Shackelford mentions Grosjean, and he states their disagreement at the end. However, he says himself he does not know who is right.

Grosjean's analysis is found here: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...ouponsbjfo.pdf

At $22,000/year in coupons I want to play these efficiently.

**This is a big difference,' Shackleford rates Match Play chips on BJ at 46% (even less than baccarat!) of face value while Grosjean rates them at 51.9%.**

They both agree on Promotional chips and non-chashable chips that BJ is the best bet.

The BJ games offered:
Game 1: CSM, H17, LS, DAS, RSA, RS4, BJ 3:2 (-0.37 adv), $10/min

Game 2: 8dShoe 5dPen, S17, LS, DAS, RSA, RS4, (-0.56 adv), $30/min

Additionally, there is a final twist in this puzzle. This is an Asian casino. All the accusations online of cheating, I actually also suspect is a likely possibility in BJ. This is based on counting 100s of hours of observations and counting (seeing a lot of high RC counts, Aces often grouped suspiciously with table full of low cards).

Wizard probably used an average while JG has different values for all different rules sets.

[BJcountingmaster]

So you will be able to pocket 19,000 out of this 20,000 right?

I have $200 free bet coupons each month, I am going to just play basic strategy and get 49%*2 =98% out of $2,400 which is ~ $2,350 this year

Who is right about coupons? Shackleford vs Grosjean?

I respect both of these guys tremendously, but they disagree on a very important action I need to make:

I have $22,000 in coupon chips to use over the next year, but the 2 odds experts I found, Shackelford "Wizard of Odds" and Grosjean disagree on coupons.

I get three types (terminology consistent with Shackleford & Grosjean):

*Note: All coupons are restricted to even money bets (with BJ being only exception)

Coupon A:
1 $30 "Match Play*" coupon per day

Coupon B:
1 $20 "Promotional Chip" or "Funny Chips" per day.

Coupon C:
1 $10 "Non-negotiable" chip per day

Shackelford's analysis is found here: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/

Note: Shackelford mentions Grosjean, and he states their disagreement at the end. However, he says himself he does not know who is right.

Grosjean's analysis is found here: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...ouponsbjfo.pdf

At $22,000/year in coupons I want to play these efficiently.

**This is a big difference,' Shackleford rates Match Play chips on BJ at 46% (even less than baccarat!) of face value while Grosjean rates them at 51.9%.**

They both agree on Promotional chips and non-chashable chips that BJ is the best bet.

The BJ games offered:
Game 1: CSM, H17, LS, DAS, RSA, RS4, BJ 3:2 (-0.37 adv), $10/min

Game 2: 8dShoe 5dPen, S17, LS, DAS, RSA, RS4, (-0.56 adv), $30/min

Additionally, there is a final twist in this puzzle. This is an Asian casino. All the accusations online of cheating, I actually also suspect is a likely possibility in BJ. This is based on counting 100s of hours of observations and counting (seeing a lot of high RC counts, Aces often grouped suspiciously with table full of low cards).

[Gronbog]

Read the referenced research. You won't get anywhere close ro a 98% return using free bets on blackjack.

[BJcountingmaster]

What if I mix the free bet coupon to my bets with card counting? It should be about 102% return.

Read the referenced research. You won't get anywhere close ro a 98% return using free bets on blackjack.

[21forme]

What if I mix the free bet coupon to my bets with card counting? It should be about 102% return.

Wrong again

[Pariah]

Eliot Jacobson has written on this topic also, if you want a third viewpoint.

Thanks, most helpful post so far but I can't find any specifically consluive analysis from him on this question -- I only found generic write-ups. Do you happen to have a good link in mind?

[grnmax]

Have you looked at his posts on 888casino? It is not well organized but my memory is that a few entries address non-negotiable chips and match plays.

[grnmax]

Found this, it is a little easier to scan through. http://ijmp.org/2019/10/03/ap-heat/