See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 3 of 7 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast
Results 27 to 39 of 79

Thread: "Preserving The Win"

  1. #27


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    Sim results using 10B hands played with the CV Data simulator is rubbish? You might not like the results, but take it up with Norm, it's his software.
    Ok I reread your first post and the math makes sense. What you are failing to see and you were already told, with such a measly sample size of 430 hands, a puny spread of 1-4 and 12 units goal you are limiting your risk but at the same time your EV. If you spend as long as you can at your local joint with a proper 1-10 spread at 1% ROR, the EV will be orders of magnitude higher than your wimpy sim. Go ahead and prove us wrong with CVData. All I read here is that you are scared of variance and you are literally backing yourself off from real winnings. Sorry to be so brutal but seems you don’t get it.

    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
    AngryCounter: In case you are 10 units ahead and "preserve this win", do you really think the trip was not a waste? Cannot get behind this logic.
    I not only game blackjack, I also game credit cards so for me to get a flight for $200 to LV is not difficult, I also found a loophole to keep Caesars Diamond permanently and with a bit of play my hotel is free. As for food, I rely on MyVegas and Wynn Slots apps to get roughly 4 meals for a weekend free, so I only spend another $100 in food out of pocket.

    Now factor in the above small expenses and the fact that I was doing a $50-$1k bet spread last year... with a mere $500 win I go back home happy after a fun weekend and with $200 extra in my pocket. This was the case of my worst trip, all the others I left with $1.5k+ winnings, one of them was $12k.

    I’m now a black chipper, so leaving Vegas with a ”measly” 10 unit win is a free Las Vegas trip + a modest Caribbean vacation in cash.

    Makes sense now?


    I’ve put hundreds of hours into this to get to the point of making a nice side income. I can’t justify the logic of scared red chippers around not taking the leap. Very few people can master this skill, use it! Your spare time is more than $15/h.
    Last edited by AngryCounter; 01-09-2020 at 07:44 PM.

  2. #28


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    If one can play like a robot without any emotion whatsoever, good for them. Most people can't.

    I bet sports. Are there instances when I hedge? Absolutely. I know fully well that in the long run, hedging will likely cause a small negative to the ROI, but it can help smooth out the rough edges, and I can sleep easier.

    I wouldn't tell either side they are 100% right or wrong. Life usually isn't that black and white.

  3. #29
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Jul 2018
    Posts
    326


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    @ Angry, read posts 14 and 16...and I should add that I do not spread 1:4 at the casinos I am not milking...sometimes 1:10, sometimes 1:20, at the other places and exclusively Wong out at ODPs.

    Oh, and 10 shoes a day is plenty for me, my trips to the casinos where I am not a regular usually generate more than 4, 8, or 12 units. But if it does not that's fine, it usually more than covers my fuel and meal.

    And by the way, when you bankroll me, I'll play any way you want me to. But until that day, which will never come, KMA. This is a part time gig for me and I never had any aspirations to play FT.
    Last edited by Wave; 01-09-2020 at 08:24 PM.

  4. #30


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by AngryCounter View Post

    I not only game blackjack, I also game credit cards so for me to get a flight for $200 to LV is not difficult, I also found a loophole to keep Caesars Diamond permanently and with a bit of play my hotel is free. As for food, I rely on MyVegas and Wynn Slots apps to get roughly 4 meals for a weekend free, so I only spend another $100 in food out of pocket.

    Now factor in the above small expenses and the fact that I was doing a $50-$1k bet spread last year... with a mere $500 win I go back home happy after a fun weekend and with $200 extra in my pocket. This was the case of my worst trip, all the others I left with $1.5k+ winnings, one of them was $12k.

    I’m now a black chipper, so leaving Vegas with a ”measly” 10 unit win is a free Las Vegas trip + a modest Caribbean vacation in cash.

    Makes sense now?
    Yes. I only thought of 10 units on a red chipper scale, so it was 50 dollars to me. But 500 is another thing, and even more if there are additional benefits of the journey like comped rooms and meals.

  5. #31


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
    Yes. I only thought of 10 units on a red chipper scale, so it was 50 dollars to me. But 500 is another thing, and even more if there are additional benefits of the journey like comped rooms and meals.
    Then why do you keep giving people advice when you have never even played BJ? It's really getting old.
    You seem like a nice guy. But please.

  6. #32


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun View Post
    Then why do you keep giving people advice when you have never even played BJ? It's really getting old.
    You seem like a nice guy. But please.
    And you keep not reading carefully my posts (like recently, where I didn't correct Don, as you claimed, but only an assumption due to the somewhat misleading post of another poster).

    Sometimes I give some theoretical advice based upon own mathematical calculations (e.g. how to compute the probability of three naturals in a row, like in October), when I'm very sure of their technical soundness and correctness (which by the way was acknowledged by Don several times. And when he corrects something, I can follow the reasonings and update my calculations). I do this because I have a quite strong academic and teaching background in math, physics and computer science (not specifically in blackjack, but in general), probably way beyond the scope of many counters (out there or on this forum). The pure fact that someone plays doesn't necessarily say he understands the mathematics of the game better, as we know from numerous posts here. And for me, "teaching is fun" ;-)

    When it comes to practical play, I have more questions than answers, and I ask people who have live experience in card counting and advantage play (which is not readily available on my continent, in contrast to yours, so I have only played CSMs so far) for U.S. circumstances, conditions, procedures (the things that are not clearly adressed by the books). I try to collect information now because should I make it to real casino play, I want to be prepared for as many things as possible.
    Last edited by PinkChip; 01-11-2020 at 04:36 AM.

  7. #33


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
    And you keep not reading carefully my posts (like recently, where I didn't correct Don, as you claimed, but only an assumption due to the somewhat misleading post of another poster).

    Sometimes I give some theoretical advice based upon own mathematical calculations (e.g. how to compute the probability of three naturals in a row, like in October), when I'm very sure of their technical soundness and correctness (which by the way was acknowledged by Don several times. And when he corrects something, I can follow the reasonings and update my calculations). I do this because I have a quite strong academic and teaching background in math, physics and computer science (not specifically in blackjack, but in general), probably way beyond the scope of many counters (out there or on this forum). The pure fact that someone plays doesn't necessarily say he understands the mathematics of the game better, as we know from numerous posts here. And for me, "teaching is fun" ;-)

    When it comes to practical play, I have more questions than answers, and I ask people who have live experience in card counting and advantage play (which is not readily available on my continent, in contrast to yours, so I have only played CSMs so far) for U.S. circumstances, conditions, procedures (the things that are not clearly adressed by the books). I try to collect information now because should I make it to real casino play, I want to be prepared for as many things as possible.
    Ignore the guy, check Freightmans posts about him to know what experienced pros think of the conceited poster. He forgets he is not the forum administrator, demands to know why someone posts. There is no requirement that you have to be an active player to post. You are not the first one to notice his lies either.

  8. #34


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    "Preserving the win" is, for the most part, very stupid. There may be some exceptions, but those are likely to be influenced by something else, like (possible) heat.

    When I plan a trip, I want my EV to far exceed my expenses. When I'm on my trip, I want to make as much EV as I can. Why wouldn't I? I'm going to be going back next week, next month, or next year. I may as well play more "now" since I'm already here.

    What REALLY happens when you "preserve the win" is this -- let's say you plan a trip where you expect to have $5,000 in EV over 20 hours and your expenses are $500. I'm not smart enough to calculate your effective ROR when you include the expenses, but it's there. Depending on the volatility of the game I'm playing, using a $5,000 win goal can absolutely skyrocket my ROR. Maybe half of my trips I run bad, such that I don't hit the +$5,000 mark. The other half the trips I run good right off the bat in just a few hours. Overall, my average # of hours played might be something like 8. Now, instead of my expenses being 10% ($500 per $5,000) of my EV, it's now 25% ($500 per $2,000).
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  9. #35


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    "Preserving the win" is, for the most part, very stupid. There may be some exceptions, but those are likely to be influenced by something else, like (possible) heat.

    When I plan a trip, I want my EV to far exceed my expenses. When I'm on my trip, I want to make as much EV as I can. Why wouldn't I? I'm going to be going back next week, next month, or next year. I may as well play more "now" since I'm already here.

    What REALLY happens when you "preserve the win" is this -- let's say you plan a trip where you expect to have $5,000 in EV over 20 hours and your expenses are $500. I'm not smart enough to calculate your effective ROR when you include the expenses, but it's there. Depending on the volatility of the game I'm playing, using a $5,000 win goal can absolutely skyrocket my ROR. Maybe half of my trips I run bad, such that I don't hit the +$5,000 mark. The other half the trips I run good right off the bat in just a few hours. Overall, my average # of hours played might be something like 8. Now, instead of my expenses being 10% ($500 per $5,000) of my EV, it's now 25% ($500 per $2,000).

    Not following. Where did the $2,000 come from at the end?

    Don

  10. #36


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Not following. Where did the $2,000 come from at the end?

    Don
    Guess I didn't write it in. But at $250/hr, 20 hours is $5k in EV and 8 hours is $2k in EV.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  11. #37


    0 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    "Preserving the win" is, for the most part, very stupid. There may be some exceptions, but those are likely to be influenced by something else, like (possible) heat.

    When I plan a trip, I want my EV to far exceed my expenses. When I'm on my trip, I want to make as much EV as I can. Why wouldn't I? I'm going to be going back next week, next month, or next year. I may as well play more "now" since I'm already here.

    What REALLY happens when you "preserve the win" is this -- let's say you plan a trip where you expect to have $5,000 in EV over 20 hours and your expenses are $500. I'm not smart enough to calculate your effective ROR when you include the expenses, but it's there. Depending on the volatility of the game I'm playing, using a $5,000 win goal can absolutely skyrocket my ROR. Maybe half of my trips I run bad, such that I don't hit the +$5,000 mark. The other half the trips I run good right off the bat in just a few hours. Overall, my average # of hours played might be something like 8. Now, instead of my expenses being 10% ($500 per $5,000) of my EV, it's now 25% ($500 per $2,000).
    You think it’s stupid because, as you say...”when I am on a trip, I want to make as much EV as I can...”. Well, as a recreational activity, I want my trip to be recreational and fun as well. It’s a compromise. You trade some EV for less stress and some fun. You get your goal, then you have some fun....

  12. #38
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Jul 2018
    Posts
    326


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    It’s a compromise. You trade some EV for less stress and some fun. You get your goal, then you have some fun....

    Yes Z...some of us get it.

    I'm not saying it is the optimal way to play, but I do understand the psychologic]al ramifications...and that one may still have a winning game withoutbut what some of these self acclaimed smart guys expect you to beleive on simply their say so is that thay are right...that their way is only the right way to play...WHEN THEY CAN NOT PRODUCE THE SIM DATA TO BACK UP THEIR ASSERTIONS!

  13. #39


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    You think it’s stupid because, as you say...”when I am on a trip, I want to make as much EV as I can...”. Well, as a recreational activity, I want my trip to be recreational and fun as well. It’s a compromise. You trade some EV for less stress and some fun. You get your goal, then you have some fun....
    The problem is that the luck / variance component hinders us from winning every trip, so it is impossible to come out a winner and have no stress every trip. Thus if you want to be relaxed and happy everytime, blackjack is the wrong hobby. I have several hobbies (and a job which unfortunately takes too much time), and still have to put my skills and nerves to the test at the tables, but from I read here I have no illusion that it will be easy and quick money without any backoffs, losing streaks, self doubts etc.

Page 3 of 7 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Basic Strategy question regarding "soft" and "hard" hands
    By Letangs in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 73
    Last Post: 08-22-2018, 07:02 AM
  2. The "Sting" vs "Prevailing Wisdom": Limit on Number of Double Downs?
    By SteinMeister in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 08-14-2018, 03:29 PM
  3. Replies: 4
    Last Post: 01-12-2018, 02:41 PM
  4. Replies: 3
    Last Post: 10-15-2015, 11:37 AM
  5. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 03-29-2015, 08:44 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.