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Thread: "Preserving The Win"

  1. #14
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    One of the prior comments asked why someone would place a limit of 10 shoes played (430 head to head hands played) or units won on a trip due to expenses associated with a trip (travel, meals, lodging) and I was explaining that my trip expenses are minimal, therefore I do not have to have large wins to make my brief day trips profitable.

    My assumption is that they need more units won than I do in order to make their trips profitable since they have larger travel expenses than I do...and that travel expenses were a relevant factor for them.
    Last edited by Wave; 01-02-2020 at 09:31 AM.

  2. #15


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    It isn't clear to me what we are discussing, or perhaps more importantly, why we might be discussing this. The drift seems to be that, if we set a stopping goal, or a number of hours to play goal, either will reduce ROR from, well, just keeping on playing. Well, DUH!, of course it will. Want to limit ROR to zero? Here's a tip: don't play at all!!

    I don't see the point of the discussion. You want to demonstrate that, if you play just 400 hands and then quit, rather than playing, say, 800 hands, your ROR will be lower, well, then, if this isn't instantly intuitive to everyone, then you have no understanding of the game. Same thing for number of hours. Your ROR of ruin can't do anything but get larger the more you play. Just think about it. You can either stop playing this second, with whatever ROR that came to up until the moment you stopped, or you can keep playing. Since you aren't ruined right now, and there is some chance, no matter how small it might be, that you could be ruined if you keep playing, then obviously, playing more can only add to that value.

    So, again, can someone please explain to me exactly what it is we are discussing?

    Don

  3. #16
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    @Don: I started this thread because people liked to rag on Z because he used to "preserve the win" and I wanted to show that it is not the end of the world and you can still have a winning game if done based on sim data instead of emotion and you are willing to accept lower hourly EV.

    Right now I only do it at one casino that has been giving me generous comps and I want to continue milking them. I am a weekly return player there and don't want to rub their nose in the fact I'm beating them. "Quitting when I'm ahead" adds a little cover IMO. Last night I left there on a + count after a 10 unit win..."he just got lucky, no card counter would leave on a + count". In fact, the dealer commented on how "lucky" I was and said "don't get crazy now..." My philosphy there is that if they think that you "just got lucky", or are a lucky player, then let them continue thinking that way and don't do something to change their minds. This is all akin to the stop loss posts I made a few months ago.

    At the other casinos I fequent I just use ODPs to decide when to stop because I am not there often enough to be remembered and the comps are pitiful.

    And I don't think it is "instantly intuitive" to everyone, hence my posts...
    Last edited by Wave; 01-02-2020 at 11:56 AM.

  4. #17


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    I think everyone should do whatever the hell they want but understand the costs. Justify your actions to yourself, but just know math is math. Everything other than optimal play has a cost. If quitting while you're ahead makes you feel good, fine quit while ahead. Just accept what you are and don't try to justify it to others.

  5. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by SammyBoy View Post
    I think everyone should do whatever the hell they want but understand the costs. Justify your actions to yourself, but just know math is math. Everything other than optimal play has a cost. If quitting while you're ahead makes you feel good, fine quit while ahead. Just accept what you are and don't try to justify it to others.
    ^^^^^ this.

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    @Don: I started this thread because people liked to rag on Z because he used to "preserve the win" and I wanted to show that it is not the end of the world and you can still have a winning game if done based on sim data instead of emotion and you are willing to accept lower hourly EV.

    Right now I only do it at one casino that has been giving me generous comps and I want to continue milking them. I am a weekly return player there and don't want to rub their nose in the fact I'm beating them. "Quitting when I'm ahead" adds a little cover IMO. Last night I left there on a + count after a 10 unit win..."he just got lucky, no card counter would leave on a + count". In fact, the dealer commented on how "lucky" I was and said "don't get crazy now..." My philosphy there is that if they think that you "just got lucky", or are a lucky player, then let them continue thinking that way and don't do something to change their minds. This is all akin to the stop loss posts I made a few months ago.

    At the other casinos I fequent I just use ODPs to decide when to stop because I am not there often enough to be remembered and the comps are pitiful.

    And I don't think it is "instantly intuitive" to everyone, hence my posts...


    Nice backtrack lol...actually here is the first paragraph of your first post...

    "A lot of members here like to give Z shit for his "preserving the win" comments, but this is completely unwarranted and IMHO is a manifestation of their ignorance regarding the value of preserving a win to reduce ROR. Contrary to their misconceptions, it IS important and valuable to know when to stop playing when on a trip. The data provided below is based on a sim I am currently running (now at 6B hands played) and is evidence that "preserving the win" can reduce ROR if based on sim generated empirical data and not on emotion."

    So yeah like Don said, you can reduce ROR all the way down to zero if you want...just stop playing forever. How could that not be intuitive?
    Last edited by Counting_Is_Fun; 01-03-2020 at 10:07 PM.

  7. #20
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    No, not backtrack, clarification.

    I do limit trips to 10 shoes because the number of hands played on a trip DOES reduce ROR. I use trip goals ("preserving the win") at one casino because I am milking it.

    It amazes me that despite employing ODPs and/or Kelly criterion and ROR for total BR...BECAUSE WE WANT TO MITIGATE RISK...the same principles are not employed by many APs when it comes to TR...DESPITE HAVING THE TOOLS READILY AVAILABLE TO DO SO! Failing to mitigate risk with a TR when the resources to do so are readily available is worse than stupid...it is reckless. Is your TR simply disposable and something which you are willing to sacrifice regardless of risk? Is TR number of units the only way to mitigate ROR for your TR? Of course it is not, but it IS YOUR money, do with it what you wish and play as you like.

    Just because I choose to prioritize mitigating TR ROR over 100% optimal play, and do it differently than you do, does not mean I am any less of a player than you are, it simply means I refuse to accept the same level of risk you do with my TR. And guess what...if you don't go to max bet the second you have the advantage, then you are doing EXACTLY the same thing I am...MITIGATING RISK!!!

    How many TRs have you lost in your career, possibly needlessly, because you prioritized optimal play above minimizing risk? I have lost more than one, but then realized I was not applying all the tools available to me to mitigate risk to a TR. To say you can eliminate all risk by not playing is a false comparison because the desire to mitigate risk to an acceptable level is not the equivalent of refusing to accept any risk. So, yes, knowing when to stop playing, either by measuring number of hands played, or number of units won, or both, is of value...if you are smart enough to recognize it. If you are not, then maybe you are more of a gambler than you think you are.

    @Don and Norm, with all due respect, or anyone else critical of my philosophy, when you bankroll me, I'll play 100 percent optimally. But until that day, which will never come, I will mitigate risk for my TR in the manner I find acceptable, not according to what anyone else finds acceptable.
    Last edited by Wave; 01-04-2020 at 12:28 AM.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    No, not backtrack, clarification.

    I do limit trips to 10 shoes because the number of hands played on a trip DOES reduce ROR. I use trip goals ("preserving the win") at one casino because I am milking it.

    It amazes me that despite employing ODPs and/or Kelly criterion and ROR for total BR...BECAUSE WE WANT TO MITIGATE RISK...the same principles are not employed by many APs when it comes to TR...DESPITE HAVING THE TOOLS READILY AVAILABLE TO DO SO! Failing to migitgate risk with a TR when the resources to do so are readily available is worse than stupid...it is reckless. Is your TR simply disposable and something which you are willing to sacrifice regardless of risk? Is TR number of units the only way to mitigate ROR for your TR? Of course it is not, but it IS YOUR money, do with it what you wish and play as you like.

    Just because I choose to prioritize mitigating TR ROR over 100% optimal play, and do it differently than you do, does not mean I am any less of a player than you are, it simply means I refuse to accept the same level of risk you do with my TR. And guess what...if you don't go to max bet the second you have the advantage, then you are doing EXACTLY the same thing I am...MITIGATING RISK!!!

    How many TRs have you lost in your career, possibly needlessly, because you prioritized optimal play above minimizing risk? I have lost more than one, but then realized I was not applying all the tools available to me to mitigate risk to a TR. To say you can eliminate all risk by not playing is a false comparison because the desire to mirigate risk to an acceptable level is not the equivalent of refusing to accept any risk. So, yes, knowing when to stop playing, either by measuring number of hands played, or number of units won, or both, is of value...if you are smart enough to recognize it. If you are not, then maybe you are more of a gambler than you think you are.
    Holy crap, maybe read Don's post again ?

  9. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun View Post
    Holy crap, maybe read Don's post again ?
    Lol!

    Okay, maybe too many beers tonight...don't drunk post!

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    Lol!

    Okay, maybe too many beers tonight...don't drunk post!
    Haha no worries bro...happy new year, and good variance!!

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    My “preserving a win” is the value I give to feeling good for the next 24 hours, of feeling good the rest of my trip, while returning my rental car, about 4 hours of waiting at airport, the 3+ hour in the air, the shuttle to my car, drive home and feeling good when family greets me.

    Thus, to me “preserving the win” is simply paying a price (possible additional dollars) for the certainty of feeling good all the way home.
    My thoughts exactly. I employ this in my Vegas visits. If I’m ahead like even as little as 10 units 24 prior to leaving, I stop. Out of a weekend that’s 1/3 of the trip... roughly 6-8 hours of play I miss out on so I can be happy knowing I won until I go back to Vegas next month... makes me feel the trip wasn’t a waste. I only do this since the exchange rate compared to my local currency makes a loss in USD very undesirable, even despite the fact my bankroll supports the same spread in USD and my local currency.

    I personally lean more towards optimal play than a recreational counting. I’m fully aware over time the opportunity cost is huge, so I’d call this “psyche management” . This comes after the 2 times I’ve lost 50+ units in one shoe right before my weekend trip to my local casino and the awful feeling for the whole week afterwards before I go back. It would cause me too much emotional stress to have that feeling for long.

    On the other hand. I agree with Don that Wave’s math is rubbish, you can’t predict the end of an upswing. However, I do try to hit my rated shop at Vegas after a 30+ betting units win unrated elsewhere. That along with heavy ratholing has worked well to keep my loser record. The later is as much as I “gamble”.

  12. #25


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    Zee: What gives you the "certainty of feeling good because you are ahead" when you are in fact behind during the whole trip? Short term wins are not guaranteed in this sport.

    AngryCounter: In case you are 10 units ahead and "preserve this win", do you really think the trip was not a waste? Cannot get behind this logic.

    PinkChip: And why the heck can't I delete my own post? I'm too tired for this now and must sleep :-)
    Last edited by PinkChip; 01-08-2020 at 05:17 PM.

  13. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by AngryCounter View Post
    On the other hand. I agree with Don that Wave’s math is rubbish, you can’t predict the end of an upswing.
    Sim results using 10B hands played with the CV Data simulator is rubbish? You might not like the results, but take it up with Norm, it's his software.

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