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Thread: "Preserving The Win"

  1. #66


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    What you call a part-time AP, I call a recreational AP. The part I quoted I call a gambler who is making a half-assed attempt trying to limit his losses from gambling.

    P.S. OSN has a lot of misinformation in it. Don't wear your entry as a merit badge.
    Yes, I would say 21forme and RenegadeNation have it exactly right.

  2. #67


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    Quote Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun View Post
    But if you are are on a trip, most people try to play as many hours as possible...whether they are ahead or behind. I mean isn't that why you took the trip? Try to maximize your EV by playing as much as possible.
    But others like Zee go into preserve the win mode whenever they get ahead because it makes them happier to go home with a winning trip.
    To each their own I guess. But when I go through the trouble and expenses of taking a trip...then I play as much as I can in order to maximize the trip and EV. I separate my BJ trips from my real vacations.
    For me my Vegas vacations are my vacation. The problem is I’m at a disadvantage exchange rate wise when playing in USD but not so much is worth to use a different spread. I do play professionally off the bat and as I amass a ~30-40 betting units win I wind down on time... I always plan for a max of 24h of play for the trip. Mind you I never vary my spread or “hunch” decisions.

    Last year all of my trips went that way, I played 2 days, won handsomely and rested the 3rd day.

    However, I’m fully aware there will be the crusher early trip loss of 100 betting units that will force me to play through, even sacrificing sleep, until I get back to even.

    I’m fine with both scenarios above, what I wouldn’t be cool with would be being 50 units up only to go to -10 at the last shoe 4 hours prior to my return flight. The emotional state I’d be until I go back would be tough.

    Yes that’s worth the EV loss for me.

    I’ve stated this thread has value for “psyche management”, but as Don mentioned, the math it’s out there to prove wave is just showing his sims conveniently , but there are plenty of sims already out there that will put his comments to shame with a higher amount of hands plays.

    This comes even for a part time AP like me that can put 120h per month.
    Last edited by AngryCounter; 01-17-2020 at 01:53 PM.

  3. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by AngryCounter View Post
    I’ve stated this thread has value for “psyche management”, but as Don mentioned, the math it’s out there to prove wave is just showing his sims conveniently , but there are plenty of sims already out there that will put his comments to shame with a higher amount of hands plays.

    I don't understand your quote. The sims I referred to in the OP correspond with what Don said...the longer you play the more your chance of ruin...however small. You can never eliminate it. Playing to reach a higher trip goal means you are playing longer, and that is exactly what my OP shows. As a preemptive measure...yes, you lose EV if you do this, but I never said you won't.


    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    A Simple ROR for a TR of 80 units is 62.43%, which is obviously unacceptable. How can that ROR be mitigated? By employing a limit to the number of hands played on the trip, or a win goal, or both. Using just the number of hands played of 430 hands reduces the ROR to 5.869%. Using just a trip goal of +12 units reduces ROR to 10.19%; +8 units = 7.11%; +4 units = 3.73%. If you add in a number of hands played limit of 430 hands with a trip goal, the ROR drops even further; +12 units = 4.26%; +8 units = 3.22%; +4 units = 1.95%.


    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    All You can play as many hours as you please and/or quit whenever you want. The overriding principle will never change: The fewer hours you play, the less your ROR will be. In the reductio ad absurdum argument, just don't play at all and your risk is zero. Play one hour and then quit, it will be a little higher, play five, higher still. It's a simplistic concept that shouldn't be the subject of 51 posts.

    Don
    Sorry Don...#68...
    Last edited by Wave; 01-17-2020 at 04:19 PM.

  4. #69


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post

    The sims I referred to in the OP correspond with what Don said...the longer you play the more your chance of ruin...however small. You can never eliminate it.
    This thread seems to only deal with the negative side of advantage play: "The longer you play the higher your risk of ruin", but blends out the other, positive side of the coin: "The longer you play, the higher your expected win".

  5. #70
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    Agreed, it was never intended as a post to show ways to maximize EV...instead it offered alternatives to carrying larger TRs...albeit with reduced EV if one uses trip goals. Hence my extremely limited use of trip goals (did everyone get that..to repeat ad nauseam...I only do it at one store that I like to play at and am milking for comps). There is still value in the OP re: optimal play...knowing how much to bring based on how many hands you intend to play. As a preemptive measure, I'm not telling anyone how many hands to play

    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post

    Using just the number of hands played of 430 hands reduces the ROR to 5.869%
    Sorry Don, #70. Maybe Norm can close the thread...
    Last edited by Wave; 01-17-2020 at 04:42 PM.

  6. #71


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    When i use to play poker i would always try to leave when ahead. It would make me feel better about my decisions. As you get tired and get bad beats you tend to steam. Although you are not supposed to and your wins are in term of BB per hour. I do the same with BJ. Play short sessions and leave when im up. Its better for my mental state. If i play for a long time a lose track of count more often and make errors. So in that sense its +EV. But i do understand that im just a beginner and most of you dont have that problem.

  7. #72


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    I don't understand your quote. The sims I referred to in the OP correspond with what Don said...the longer you play the more your chance of ruin...however small. You can never eliminate it. Playing to reach a higher trip goal means you are playing longer, and that is exactly what my OP shows. As a preemptive measure...yes, you lose EV if you do this, but I never said you won't.

    Sorry Don...#68...
    https://giphy.com/gifs/agentm-agent-...deaQ5Xo0E/tile

  8. #73
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  9. #74


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  10. #75


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    Would the message of your post have been diminished if you hadn't added, "you arrogant ass" at the end? Are you trying to get your posts busted for attacking people instead of ideas? Is that principle really so very difficult to understand?

    Don

  11. #76
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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Umm...comp hustling is recognized as advantage play...you don't have to play 100 percent optimally 100 percent of the time to be an advantage player, or to get an edge.

  12. #77


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    Ploppies should most definitely preserve the win. I was dealing to a guy betting $15-$40 a hand. At one point he announces, "I'm all in". $400 in red all into the betting circle. The biggest bet of his life. He won it. He then dropped his bets, but had some $50-$100 bets that did ok. I colored him up for $1200. He bought in for $200. He had some red left and stayed. I was breaking two other blackjack tables and a Mississippi Stud table so I left the table. When I came back nearly an hour and a half later, the poor sap was still there and had cashed in his two purple cheques. During my 20 minutes there, he got tapped out. What could've been a good memory of winning the biggest bet of his life turned into a pathetic display of junkiesm.

  13. #78
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    Ouch.

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