For me my Vegas vacations are my vacation. The problem is I’m at a disadvantage exchange rate wise when playing in USD but not so much is worth to use a different spread. I do play professionally off the bat and as I amass a ~30-40 betting units win I wind down on time... I always plan for a max of 24h of play for the trip. Mind you I never vary my spread or “hunch” decisions.
Last year all of my trips went that way, I played 2 days, won handsomely and rested the 3rd day.
However, I’m fully aware there will be the crusher early trip loss of 100 betting units that will force me to play through, even sacrificing sleep, until I get back to even.
I’m fine with both scenarios above, what I wouldn’t be cool with would be being 50 units up only to go to -10 at the last shoe 4 hours prior to my return flight. The emotional state I’d be until I go back would be tough.
Yes that’s worth the EV loss for me.
I’ve stated this thread has value for “psyche management”, but as Don mentioned, the math it’s out there to prove wave is just showing his sims conveniently , but there are plenty of sims already out there that will put his comments to shame with a higher amount of hands plays.
This comes even for a part time AP like me that can put 120h per month.
Last edited by AngryCounter; 01-17-2020 at 01:53 PM.
I don't understand your quote. The sims I referred to in the OP correspond with what Don said...the longer you play the more your chance of ruin...however small. You can never eliminate it. Playing to reach a higher trip goal means you are playing longer, and that is exactly what my OP shows. As a preemptive measure...yes, you lose EV if you do this, but I never said you won't.
Sorry Don...#68...
Last edited by Wave; 01-17-2020 at 04:19 PM.
Agreed, it was never intended as a post to show ways to maximize EV...instead it offered alternatives to carrying larger TRs...albeit with reduced EV if one uses trip goals. Hence my extremely limited use of trip goals (did everyone get that..to repeat ad nauseam...I only do it at one store that I like to play at and am milking for comps). There is still value in the OP re: optimal play...knowing how much to bring based on how many hands you intend to play. As a preemptive measure, I'm not telling anyone how many hands to play
Sorry Don, #70. Maybe Norm can close the thread...
Last edited by Wave; 01-17-2020 at 04:42 PM.
When i use to play poker i would always try to leave when ahead. It would make me feel better about my decisions. As you get tired and get bad beats you tend to steam. Although you are not supposed to and your wins are in term of BB per hour. I do the same with BJ. Play short sessions and leave when im up. Its better for my mental state. If i play for a long time a lose track of count more often and make errors. So in that sense its +EV. But i do understand that im just a beginner and most of you dont have that problem.
Ploppies should most definitely preserve the win. I was dealing to a guy betting $15-$40 a hand. At one point he announces, "I'm all in". $400 in red all into the betting circle. The biggest bet of his life. He won it. He then dropped his bets, but had some $50-$100 bets that did ok. I colored him up for $1200. He bought in for $200. He had some red left and stayed. I was breaking two other blackjack tables and a Mississippi Stud table so I left the table. When I came back nearly an hour and a half later, the poor sap was still there and had cashed in his two purple cheques. During my 20 minutes there, he got tapped out. What could've been a good memory of winning the biggest bet of his life turned into a pathetic display of junkiesm.
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