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Hi-Lo system with Ace side counts and 2, 3 side count
Recently I improved my odds by using Hi-Lo system with Ace side counts and 2,3 side counts on 6 decks.
Ace side counts helps several decisions more accurately:
(1) Insurance: (very important at high TC toward the end of shoe)
Usually we bet insurance when TC>=3
In one case:
There was only about 1.2 deck left , running count 5, the true count was 4, however only 14 out of 24 Aces out. So 10 Aces in 1.2 deck, 8 Aces/deck True count of 4 was the purely result of Ace. Dealer up card was an Ace, I did not take insurance and I was right.
(2) 15, 16 vs dealer 10 and A:
In Ace rich deck although TC is positive, you still want to hit 16 on some positive TC since positive TC were contributed solely by Aces.
For decision on hit / stand on 15, 16s you need to calculate [running count - (#Aces left -expected # Aces left) x1.6]/# deck left = adjusted true count. Some time on Ace poor high true count, we even stand on 13, 14 vs 10.
(3) whether or not to hit soft 18 vs dealer 9, 10, Aces
On ace-poor and 2, 3 poor deck, you do not want to hit soft 18 against dealer 9, 10, Aces because you can not improve you hand without Ace, 2, 3. All others favor dealer. Drawing face card you get same but hard 18, however you helped dealer by taking out one of his bust card. All other cards significantly hurt soft 18.
(4) soft 18 double on 2,
On ace-poor and 2, 3 poor deck, soft 18 should stand instead of doubling on 2 since 2 is not very busting. Same reason as above, if you double you are going to make your hand worse and doubled your risk.
(5) 8 DD 6 on TC>=2
For Ace rich deck, we do not want to double 8 against dealer 6 because dealer 6 is not that weak! Calculate [running count - (#Aces left -expected # Aces left) x1.6]/# deck left = adjusted true count. If adjusted true count>=2 then 8 DD 6, other wise just hit 8 against 6.
(6) 11 DD against 9, T, A; 10 DD T and A; 9 DD T and A: For H17, 11 supposed to DD against 9 ,T, A. In Hi -Lo system, 10 DD T and A at high positive TC. However if it is extremely Ace rich deck, then the high positive TC may be solely caused by extra Aces. In this case I won't DD 11 against dealer T or A and will reconsider DD 11 against dealer 9. DD 11 against dealer 2-6 is still safe. I will DD T and 9 against dealer T or A with slightly lower TC. With high positive TC, you are expecting more Ts 9s 8s, 7s for 11 to make 21 20 19 18 especially 21. However, when Aces solely contribute to high positive TC, then you are expecting more 12s instead of more 21s. In extremely Ace rich deck, Ace will help player's T to get 21, and 9 to get 20, however drawing Ace won't help dealer's T or A.
Just one rule: Ace helps player by 3:2 Black Jack and more soft total DD hands, and that's all. Assuming 1:1 Black Jack, Ace is just a "1" that help dealer NOT player. So many times I've seen dealer survived 16 by drawing an Ace!
In 6:5 Black Jack I count 10 J Q K as "-1", 3 4 5 6 as "1" and Ace 2 7 8 9 as "0"
It is much more precise.
I very rarely play 6:5 Black Jack, even with >5 deck penetration on 6 decks, odds of winning is very bad.
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Originally Posted by DSchles
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