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Thread: Lucky Lucky Combinatorial Analysis?

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Just rereading opening post. Standard payout on suited 21 is 15-1, which I stated as 2.6% house edge. OP has stated 10-1, which essentially doubles house edge, rendering the game unbeatable. I know of a store or 2 that has reduced this portion as described. If accurate, don’t worry about the study, just stay away.
    I realize I now have zero credibility here, having been labeled as math ignorant. But I don’t think that increasing the initial house edge from 2.5% to 5% necessarily makes a side bet unbeatable. I know of at least one another side bet where the initial house advantage is about 6-7% (https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-...kjack-side-bet), but this side bet is “beatable” because 1) you don’t have to bet the side bet until the EV is positive (duh), and 2) in at least two casinos I frequent you can make this side bet at amounts significantly greater than the size of your base game bet. Yeah, the hourly win rate is not large, and you couldn’t make a living off this, but I am not in this to make megabucks, just to have some fun. Oh, and at some casinos there are multiple side bets that can be played on the same table, which actually piqued my interest in Lucky Lucky.
    Last edited by paul5795; 12-20-2019 at 06:58 PM.

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Just rereading opening post. Standard payout on suited 21 is 15-1, which I stated as 2.6% house edge. OP has stated 10-1, which essentially doubles house edge, rendering the game unbeatable. I know of a store or 2 that has reduced this portion as described. If accurate, don’t worry about the study, just stay away.
    Do you find that the DD game with the 10:1 paytable is just as beatable as the 6D with the 15:1?

    I've been playing the 6D 15:1, but am in fact considering the DD 10:1 at a closer store which I'd previously dismissed outright, after further review of my information.

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by Nova View Post
    Do you find that the DD game with the 10:1 paytable is just as beatable as the 6D with the 15:1?

    I've been playing the 6D 15:1, but am in fact considering the DD 10:1 at a closer store which I'd previously dismissed outright, after further review of my information.
    I’ve never seen the game offered at double deck. My comments on house edge are based on 6 deck, and would have to be recalculated for double deck. I don’t know the dd house edge.

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by paul5795 View Post
    I realize I now have zero credibility here, having been labeled as math ignorant. But I don’t think that increasing the initial house edge from 2.5% to 5% necessarily makes a side bet unbeatable. I know of at least one another side bet where the initial house advantage is about 6-7% (https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-...kjack-side-bet), but this side bet is “beatable” because 1) you don’t have to bet the side bet until the EV is positive (duh), and 2) in at least two casinos I frequent you can make this side bet at amounts significantly greater than the size of your base game bet. Yeah, the hourly win rate is not large, and you couldn’t make a living off this, but I am not in this to make megabucks, just to have some fun. Oh, and at some casinos there are multiple side bets that can be played on the same table, which actually piqued my interest in Lucky Lucky.
    Yes, you can play the main game, and ‘Wong in, with differing spreads on the side bet. Given your comments, I can guess, probably quite accurately, your area of domicile.

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Yes, you can play the main game, and ‘Wong in, with differing spreads on the side bet. Given your comments, I can guess, probably quite accurately, your area of domicile.
    I bet you can. Ha.

    Yup, I wong out a lot, wong in a bit, and just plain sit out some hands when there are multiple players at the table and the side bet count isn't too bad or too good.
    Last edited by paul5795; 12-20-2019 at 07:30 PM.

  6. #19


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    paul5795,

    I have been studying Lucky Lucky for 10 years, though I've never actually played it, as my nearby casinos don't offer it.

    At first I used CVData alone to calculate the EoR value for each rank. This procedure requires running 11 CVData sims: one for the "base case", one where an Ace is removed, one where a deuce is removed, etc., then calculating each EoR as the change in the IBA. I described the procedure in much more detail in a post over at bj21: if you have Green Chip access, you can read the thread at this link (look for my "Better Lucky Lucky Results" post on page 2 of the thread):

    https://bj21.com/boards/green-chip-f...e-bet-question

    Lately, I've been using both CA (in my Excel spreadsheet) and CVData. I use the CA to find the EoR for each rank: this procedure is much faster than the pure CVData approach I had used previously. I then use those EoR's to calculate card-counting tags, which I use in CVData to simulate the results.

    As for miplet, I agree his work is excellent. Have you considered asking him to produce a spreadsheet for you for this sidebet?

    I'm away from my computer until the end of the month, so if you don't get an answer sooner, send me a private message and I'll dig up a copy of my Excel file.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  7. #20


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    Wow, Thanks Dog Hand! If gaining Green Chip access is not too expensive, I will take a look at your link.

    I was also using EOR's to put together potential side bet tags. I know that if you run with a count on the base game, most of the various side bets do not have much correlation with the base game EOR's, so the base game count is not very helpful in determining when a side bet might be +EV. But since I know of casinos that have three and (sometimes) four side bets on the same BJ table, I thought if I was counting one side bet with a system specialized to that side bet there might be another side bet with sufficient EOR correlation that I can use the same count for both side bets.

    As for Miplet, do you have a suggestion as to how to contact him? An email address or a screen name on this forum? His website does not seem to have a contact method. (OK, I just made a posting over on the Wizard forum where Miplet is active, hopefully he will respond to that).


    Last edited by paul5795; 12-21-2019 at 09:22 AM.

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