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Originally Posted by
PinkChip
Small correction: the OP says he loses his [entire] bankroll 50% of the time (not only half of his bankroll. The 50 percent is just the probability of happening this).
But it seems a totally unrealistic scenario to me, likewise. The EV would be something like 50% * (-1) + 50% * (+3) = - 50% + 150% = +100% (?), but this does not take into account the number of rounds or time it takes to win or lose the entire bankroll, as you stated.
Btw. one time the OP says the bankroll is in the succesful case multiplied by four, which is a net win of 3 times original bankroll, then he says the bankroll grows by 4 times to 5 times its original size, which is a net win of 4 times original bankroll. In the latter case, EV would further increase to 50% * (-1) + 50% * (+4) = - 50% + 200% = + 150%.
[Remark:]
People so often mix up the "brutto" win (including the original wager, e.g. 2.5 times original bet for a natural) and the "netto" win (excluding original wager, e.g. 1.5 times original bet for a natural). Unfortunately, the netto win is called "payout", which I would attribute to the brutto win instead. The netto win is the real profit, relevant for EV calculation.
The brutto win is suited to judge whether a bet is a "fair game" or profitable: the brutto number must be compared to the reciprocal value of the probability of winning the bet, e.g. insurance "payout" is 2:1, so netto win is 2, brutto win is 3, so the chance of the dealer having a Ten in the hole should be at least 1/3 to make insurance a profitable bet. Another example is the "dealer bust" bet sometimes offered in Europe. Payout is "5:2", so the netto win is 2.5 times original bet, the brutto win is thus 2.5 + 1 = 3.5 or 7/2 times original bet, so the probabiliry of the dealer busting should be at least 1 / (7/2) = 2/7 = 28.57%, which is indeed very close to the desler bust rate in a neutral deck.
What the fuck are talking about? Now you are correcting Don lol, this guy
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