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Thread: Optimal session bankroll

  1. #1


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    Optimal session bankroll

    Ok so I’m trying to figure an optimal amount of $ to risk per session based on a few things. My guess is I’m on the right track but with a possibility of flaws.

    Here is the scenario...

    50% of the time I lose my session bankroll. The other 50% of the time, the bankroll is multiplied successfully by 4x as a gain. For example, 1k turns to 5k for a profit of 4k.

    So its like 80% chance to double your bank. Right?

    This seems to be a coin flip scenario. You lose all or have your bank multiply by a 4x gain. One or the other. And it happens at a 50/50 rate.

    So according to Kelly. Or are there other tools? What would the optimal session bankroll be on a given session? Is it 80%-20% for a total of 60% of total bankroll? Seems a bit much. Lol.
    Let me know. Something seems fuzzy.


    Brick Multiplier.
    Last edited by Bricklayer; 12-18-2019 at 11:56 PM.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bricklayer View Post
    Ok so I’m trying to figure an optimal amount of $ to risk per session based on a few things. My guess is I’m on the right track but with a possibility of flaws.

    Here is the scenario...

    50% of the time I lose my session bankroll. The other 50% of the time, the bankroll is multiplied successfully by 4x as a gain. For example, 1k turns to 5k for a profit of 4k.

    So its like 80% chance to double your bank. Right?

    This seems to be a coin flip scenario. You lose all or have your bank multiply by a 4x gain. One or the other. And it happens at a 50/50 rate.

    So according to Kelly. Or are there other tools? What would the optimal session bankroll be on a given session? Is it 80%-20% for a total of 60% of total bankroll? Seems a bit much. Lol.
    Let me know. Something seems fuzzy.


    Brick Multiplier.
    You should never lose your session bankroll.

  3. #3


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    It depends, you want to have around 30 max bets in order to handle most typical downswings. You don't really want to have more than that, in case you get robbed or something.

  4. #4


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    i usually bring 10 max bets and leave/go to the atm once i hit around 3 . if i'm tired and start noticing mistakes, i just leave for the day. if i'm still playing correctly, i just grab more money. the math will work itself out so i don't let wins/loses discourage me.. i don't really feel comfortable walking around with $2000+ on me so i try to keep session bankrolls relatively small, if i need to grab more money i just go to the atm

  5. #5


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    i don't play with less than 30 units (3 max bets) because it's not really worth it

  6. #6


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    30 units as in 30 $10 table units, not my bankroll

  7. #7


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    Mine is both, time and money related. I want to play short sessions, end within 1-2 hours or, if I am up over $300, leave shortly thereafter (sometimes with as high as a $1500 or sometimes just $300, leaving at end of positive shoe). I think winning too much in a single session leads to backoffs or to being remembered.

    I also don’t like losing more than $1500 in one session so when I get there, it’s time to leave after the shoe or if the count goes negative. However, because the shoe is positive, I have placed a few max bets, but $2k is my limit.

    I play with a max bet of $200.

  8. #8


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    Thanks for the advice guys. Safety is paramount. So thanks.

    If we can leave the card counting subject out of this.

    Obviously, I’d lose the session bankroll 50% of the time. It’s fail or succeed no inbetween.
    (Are you talking about reloading a losing session for further optimization?)

    I like the idea of playing for 1-2 hours to reduce exposure.


    I’m looking for a % of total bankroll to risk according to Kelly Criterion if at all possible.

    Do any of the optimizers care to chime in? Please? Lol. My 60% guesstimate. Is it legit? Where you at Don and Norm?????

    And yes the session ends when you successfully multiply the bank for the 4x profit... Or lose it all (at a 50/50 rate). So the session action could be spread amongst however many casinos it takes for you to lose all or get the 4 x profit.

    I wanna kelly my bankroll with the info provided...is it possible? Seems likely.

    -Rec player Brick????
    Last edited by Bricklayer; 12-19-2019 at 12:55 PM.

  9. #9


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    50% of the time you are not going to multiply your session BR by 4x... Not through straight counting. Just bring enough money to play properly. Do you have cvcx? It is well worth it and will give you session risk of ruins.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Green21 View Post
    50% of the time you are not going to multiply your session BR by 4x... Not through straight counting. Just bring enough money to play properly. Do you have cvcx? It is well worth it and will give you session risk of ruins.
    85% of the time, not 50% of the time.

  11. #11


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Bricklayer View Post
    Where you at Don and Norm?????
    Norm and I haven't entered this discussion because I'm quite sure I speak for both of us when I say that we don't have the slightest idea what you're talking about.

    What you're proposing makes no sense at all to me. Are you prepared for a "session" to last forever? You seem to state that there are only two possibilities: 1) you lose 50% of your session bankroll, or 2) you multiply your session bankroll by 4. Is there no time limit? You just play for as long as it takes for one or the other of those two things to happen? And you think that it's just as likely to win four times your session stake as it is to lose half of it? What earthly sense does that make?? This is card counting, not bank robbery!

    Don

  12. #12


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    It was just speculation a friend mentioned to me on how he beats scratch offs and slots. Nvm.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    What you're proposing makes no sense at all to me. Are you prepared for a "session" to last forever? You seem to state that there are only two possibilities: 1) you lose 50% of your session bankroll, or 2) you multiply your session bankroll by 4. Is there no time limit? You just play for as long as it takes for one or the other of those two things to happen? And you think that it's just as likely to win four times your session stake as it is to lose half of it? What earthly sense does that make?? This is card counting, not bank robbery!

    Don
    Small correction: the OP says he loses his [entire] bankroll 50% of the time (not only half of his bankroll. The 50 percent is just the probability of happening this).

    But it seems a totally unrealistic scenario to me, likewise. The EV would be something like 50% * (-1) + 50% * (+3) = - 50% + 150% = +100% (?), but this does not take into account the number of rounds or time it takes to win or lose the entire bankroll, as you stated.

    Btw. one time the OP says the bankroll is in the succesful case multiplied by four, which is a net win of 3 times original bankroll, then he says the bankroll grows by 4 times to 5 times its original size, which is a net win of 4 times original bankroll. In the latter case, EV would further increase to 50% * (-1) + 50% * (+4) = - 50% + 200% = + 150%.

    [Remark:]
    People so often mix up the "brutto" win (including the original wager, e.g. 2.5 times original bet for a natural) and the "netto" win (excluding original wager, e.g. 1.5 times original bet for a natural). Unfortunately, the netto win is called "payout", which I would attribute to the brutto win instead. The netto win is the real profit, relevant for EV calculation.

    The brutto win is suited to judge whether a bet is a "fair game" or profitable: the brutto number must be compared to the reciprocal value of the probability of winning the bet, e.g. insurance "payout" is 2:1, so netto win is 2, brutto win is 3, so the chance of the dealer having a Ten in the hole should be at least 1/3 to make insurance a profitable bet. Another example is the "dealer bust" bet sometimes offered in Europe. Payout is "5:2", so the netto win is 2.5 times original bet, the brutto win is thus 2.5 + 1 = 3.5 or 7/2 times original bet, so the probabiliry of the dealer busting should be at least 1 / (7/2) = 2/7 = 28.57%, which is indeed very close to the desler bust rate in a neutral deck.
    Last edited by PinkChip; 12-20-2019 at 04:06 AM.

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