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Thread: Hole card advantage

  1. #1


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    Hole card advantage

    I need help from some math guys here please I’d appreciate it very much... If I can see a dealers hole card under 10’s only (when they check for blackjack) what is my advantage? The game is 6D H17 DAS DOA split to 4 hands, aces split once, 3:2 bj, dealt 5/6... This is my first post so take it easy on me and let me know if you need any more info. Thanks guys.

  2. #2


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    Green21,

    Welcome aboard. I believe the following page with a chart from Norm's book has a close approximation of the answer you seek. The green line is the advantage for seeing under the Ace or Ten when the dealer peeks, but you will note that the advantage for seeing under the Ace is negligible.

    https://qfit.com/book/ModernBlackjackPage464.htm
    Last edited by BJPloppy; 12-11-2019 at 01:34 PM. Reason: Link to wrong page fixed

  3. #3
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    There are a lot of variables. Assuming:

    -Basic Strategy when HC is not seen
    -By 10 you mean tens and faces
    -100% of downcards when a ten-value upcard are correctly identified
    -A cover hole-carding strategy is used. For example, don't hit a 17.

    I get a 3% edge with a SCORE of 640.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  4. #4


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    Overall, HCBS is in the 12-13% range, however, there are a number of plays that just look too ridiculous to make (hitting H18 v 20, for example), so it's more like 10%. Tens make up 4/13 of the cards, so multiply the two and it's in the 3% range.

  5. #5


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    Ok thanks for all the great replies and yes I mean all 10 value cards, basic strategy when hole card is not seen, it’s about 75% readable. Now as far as strategy I haven’t looked at any HCBS charts I was thinking pretty much play a no bust game (not hitting hard 12 or higher), and just getting as much money down via doubles and splits. (When i know the dealer is stiff). Am I way off here or close? And no I wouldn’t hit 17’s 18’s and such when I know dealer has 20.

  6. #6
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  7. #7


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    Thanks for the charts guys I will look them over much appreciated

  8. #8


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    How in the world are people figuring out how to hole card in a casino???

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Pariah View Post
    How in the world are people figuring out how to hole card in a casino???
    Pariah,

    They're figuring out how to play the HC's OUTSIDE of the casino, not on the fly inside the casino.

    Dog Hand

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    Pariah,

    They're figuring out how to play the HC's OUTSIDE of the casino, not on the fly inside the casino.

    Dog Hand
    What I was trying to say is: how is anyone successfully looking at a dealer's hole card inside a casino?

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Pariah View Post
    What I was trying to say is: how is anyone successfully looking at a dealer's hole card inside a casino?
    Pariah,

    You play long enough, you'll find some sloppy dealers.

    Dog Hand

  12. #12


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    Keep your eyes and ears open man

  13. #13


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    Pariah,

    It’s all a myth. I certainly wouldn’t suggest searching any further for this “HC” everyone seems to be mentioning in recent months.

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