Add 7m9c to HL to improve betting and surrender

[bjanalyst]

So here is a simplified HL w 7m9s system

1. Use brc = HL + (1/2)*(7m9c) for betting.

2. Use these 6 top playing strategy changes using 7m9c. There are more but these are the most important and I will ignore in this simplified version.

Surrender 8,8 v T DAS if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 2*dr

Surrender hard 14 v 9 if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 6*dr

Surrender hard 14 v T if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 3*dr
Surrender hard 14 v A if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 6*dr
Surrender hard 13 v T if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 7*dr
Stand on hard 14 v T if HL + 3*(7m9c) >= 9*dr

Note that four of these six strategy changes involve a dealer up card of Ten so they occur four times more frequently than situations where the dealer's up card is a non-Ten.

3. For all other playing strategy decisions, use the HL

And that is it. Pretty simple. And I think this system will come close to the HO2 w ASC if LS is offered.

[PinkChip]

Just my opinion regarding the complexity of this system:

- keeping (and updating!) two rather than one running counts and not mixing them up
- in addition doing true count conversion for the right count
- having to count the sevens and nines, but separately from the other cards (scanning the table twice rather than once?)
- switching between different factors (k=1/2, k=2) and multiplying one of the counts

doesn't appear to me extremely easy. Maybe a level 2 count would still be easier to handle.

[bjanalyst]

Just my opinion regarding the complexity of this system:

- keeping (and updating!) two rather than one running counts and not mixing them up
- in addition doing true count conversion for the right count
- having to count the sevens and nines, but separately from the other cards (scanning the table twice rather than once?)
- switching between different factors (k=1/2, k=2) and multiplying one of the counts

doesn't appear to me extremely easy. Maybe a level 2 count would still be easier to handle.

First of all there is PLENTY of time in the slow moving shoe game to update both HL and 7m9c. You are just sitting there. Might as well make good use of your idle time.

You update HL on the fly as the cards hit the table and then you scan the table for 7s and 9s and calculate 7m9seen which you use to update 7m9c from the previous round. Then as cards are played to finish each player hand, which is very slow, you update both HL and 7m9c. Both HL and 7m9c are level one counts counting different ranks so there should be no confusion and these should be easy to keep. With some practice this will become second nature.

For betting you always use brc = HL + (1/2)*(7m9c). There is no confusion on what count to use for betting.

For five of the six strategy change I listed you use 2*(7m9c) and for the sixth, hard 14 v T hit/stand, use 3*(7m9c) to add to the HL count.

For all other situations you use the HL.

So you do not have to learn a bunch of new indices.

This is not that much to remember.

Much, much easier than the complicated level 2 HO2 and then keeping a side count of Aces and estimating decks played to see if there is an excess or deficiency of Aces which is an ESTIMATE since decks played is estimated nd Aces played is an ever increasing number. 7m9c is EXACT with a mean of zeroand does not involve estimating decks played so is not always increasing as decks are played like Aces played is.

So the question is how much is SCORE increased by using 7m9c with HL for betting and for the six strategy changes I mentioned above. My predication is that is LS is offered, HL w 7m9c will come very close to HO2 w ASC and you can use the HL indices for 90% of the cases so nothing new to learn.

[bjanalyst]

There is another strategy change with a large increase in CC that I did not include in the six I mentioned because it involved a double and doubles increase variance. Also this strategy change does not occur very often. But with over a 30% increase in HL CC I think I should mention it.

It is 7,7 v 8 DAS. Split the 7's if HL > 0 and 7m9c > dr. This make sense since if 7m9c is a large positive number then there is a deficiency of 7s and excss of 9s left in the shoe. With less 7s it is less likely that if player hits his 7,7 that he will pick up another 7 for a perfect 21 and with excss of 9s it is more likely if player hit his 7,7 he would pick up a 9 and bust. So htting 7,7 becomes less and less desirable for large 7m9c. Also with excess 9s it is more likely dealer has a 9 in the hole making his 8 into a weak pat 17 which if the plaeyr split his 7s and picks up a Ten the player would tie the dealer.

Thus the rule, split 7,7 v 8 DAS if HL > 0 and 7m9c > dr. But this strategy change is of minor importance compared to the six strategy changes I mentioned n earlier.

[PinkChip]

First of all there is PLENTY of time in the slow moving shoe game to update both HL and 7m9c. You are just sitting there. Might as well make good use of your idle time.

You update HL on the fly as the cards hit the table and then you scan the table for 7s and 9s and calculate 7m9seen which you use to update 7m9c from the previous round. Then as cards are played to finish each player hand, which is very slow, you update both HL and 7m9c. Both HL and 7m9c are level one counts counting different ranks so there should be no confusion and these should be easy to keep. With some practice this will become second nature.

Well, I have read this "second nature" phrase too often in so many books. I'm not convinced of it as long as I have trouble in learning a simple level 1 count, which I still have. Maybe it will get better with time.

But what you initially say is, you count the high and low cards immediately as they come out of the shoe, so you cannot count them in pairs after each player has received his first two cards. As a consequence, you cannot take advantage of the cancellations, because when both cards have been dealt to each player, you must count the 7 versus 9 difference. So it takes indeed two passes in order to update both running counts.

[seriousplayer]

The primacy count being level 2 or 3 has nothing to do with whether a side count will work well or not.

You must not understand card counting than. Most of the gain in card counting come from the card tag values not in modifying the working parts of an existing system. Your advantage is not going to be significant doing it to a level 1 count system.

So I will stick by what I have said from the very beginning. HL w 7m9c is an EXTREMELY easy system where you can use the HL indices and playing strategies 90% of the time with only a few cases where 7m9c is used and then use brc = HL + (1/2)*(7m9c) for betting and you a very simple system that if LS is offered, should come in very close to the HO2 w ASC.

It is NOT very close to Hi-OPT II with ASC. It might might might be easy but most definitely for sure it is not close to Hi-OPT 2 with ASC.

[bjanalyst]

Thanks for admitting HL w 7m9c is easy.

Let me add another qualification to LS. Also I am requiring a backcounted game. So for LS backcounted game I predict HL w 7m9c will tie HO2 w ASC.

Both system have the same BE and BE is more important for shoe game than PE.

HL w 7m9c beats HO2 w ASC for LS.

HO2 a ASC beats HL w 7m9c for regular blackjack.

The result is a wash. Both systems should be close.

[DSchles]

I repeat a number of things:

1. You require TWO separate side counts, while Hi-Opt II requires only one. To make fair comparisons, one system shouldn't be advantaged in this manner over the other.
2. You repeatedly don't address the decrease in insurance correlation in your system compared to Hi-Lo, and it will be poorer, for counting the nines the wrong way. This, in turn, will affect the SCORE.
3. You insist on the very specific back-counted surrender games. Not everyone has access to that. I'd guess the majority of players do not.
4. We've had people here before who modify existing systems to show "how easy" it is to gain extra advantage, and those people repeatedly judge what the word "easy" means by their OWN facility with numbers instead of by what the average person is capable of doing. The daily Jumble in the newspaper is "easy" for me. I do the entire thing in about five to ten seconds. But I neither claim that so doing is "easy" for the average person, nor do I expect that most people are capable of doing what I do every day.
5. Finally, until you get the SCOREs, which will disappoint you, save your predictions and just wait for the results. Then boast afterwards, instead of before.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone (in the U.S.)!

Don

[seriousplayer]

Thanks for admitting HL w 7m9c is easy.

That is a lie!! I didn't say that HL w 7m9c was easy. This is what I said: "It might might might be easy but most definitely for sure it is not close to Hi-OPT 2 with ASC". You professor in college must have never told you that taking "half" of a statement is a lie. I said might three times and that is why it is in bold. I didn't say it was easy.

I've done these modification before to card counting systems. The results would be different if he applied his side counting technique to a higher level count. Also, why would he limit the 7m9c side count to 1/2 and NOT add two or three points to the 7m9c side count??

[bjanalyst]

1. 7m9c = seven minus nine count. It is a level one plus minus balanced count. The 7s are +1 and 9s are -1. 7m9c is a single integer that you remember. It counts two ranks but us a single side count not two. You remember one integer not two. Calling 7m9c two counts because it counts two ranks is like calling the HL 10 counts because it counts 10 ranks.

2. The system is psrc = HL + k*(7m9c). For insurance k = 0 so perc = HL. If HL is the best count for a given situation then k = 0 and you do not use 7m9c at all.

3. I live in PA where state law dictates all casinos must offer late surrender. As a player you always ook for best games which is deep penetration and LS. Of course I prefer backcounted game but HL w 7m9c should still do well in play all LS.

[bjanalyst]

You obviously did not read my posts carefully. k in psrc = HL + k*(7m9c) can be any number. You choose k = 0 and psrc = HL. You choose k = 1/2 for betting. You choose k = 2 for hard 14, 13 LS.

Simplified HL w 7m9s system

1. Use brc = HL + (1/2)*(7m9c) for betting.

2. Use these 6 top playing strategy changes using 7m9c. There are more but these are the most important and I will ignore in this simplified version.

Surrender 8,8 v T DAS if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 2*dr

Surrender hard 14 v 9 if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 6*dr

Surrender hard 14 v T if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 3*dr
Surrender hard 14 v A if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 6*dr
Surrender hard 13 v T if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 7*dr
Stand on hard 14 v T if HL + 3*(7m9c) >= 9*dr

Note that four of these six strategy changes involve a dealer up card of Ten so they occur four times more frequently than situations where the dealer's up card is a non-Ten.

3. For all other playing strategy decisions, use the HL

[seriousplayer]

1. 7m9c = seven minus nine count. It is a level one plus minus balanced count. The 7s are +1 and 9s are -1. 7m9c is a single integer that you remember. It counts two ranks but us a single side count not two. You remember one integer not two. Calling 7m9c two counts because it counts two ranks is like calling the HL 10 counts because it counts 10 ranks.

2. The system is psrc = HL + k*(7m9c). For insurance k = 0 so perc = HL. If HL is the best count for a given situation then k = 0 and you do not use 7m9c at all.

You keep talking about the mechanic of your 7m9c but never address how your system beats other side counts. Again, modifying the mechanics of the system doesn't always make your count more superior. Especially, to a level 1 count system.

3. I live in PA where state law dictates all casinos must offer late surrender. As a player you always ook for best games which is deep penetration and LS. Of course I prefer backcounted game but HL w 7m9c should still do well in play all LS.

We already know that you live in PA. What gave it away was you keep mentioning "late surrender". Where else offer 6 decks S17, DAS, LS with favorable penetration? You keep saying backcounting but if the condition doesn't permit. What will you do differently to outperform Hi-OPT II with ASC.

[seriousplayer]

You obviously did not read my posts carefully. k in psrc = HL + k*(7m9c) can be any number. You choose k = 0 and psrc = HL. You choose k = 1/2 for betting. You choose k = 2 for hard 14, 13 LS.

Simplified HL w 7m9s system

1. Use brc = HL + (1/2)*(7m9c) for betting.

2. Use these 6 top playing strategy changes using 7m9c. There are more but these are the most important and I will ignore in this simplified version.

Surrender 8,8 v T DAS if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 2*dr

Surrender hard 14 v 9 if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 6*dr

Surrender hard 14 v T if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 3*dr
Surrender hard 14 v A if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 6*dr
Surrender hard 13 v T if HL + 2*(7m9c) >= 7*dr
Stand on hard 14 v T if HL + 3*(7m9c) >= 9*dr

Note that four of these six strategy changes involve a dealer up card of Ten so they occur four times more frequently than situations where the dealer's up card is a non-Ten.

3. For all other playing strategy decisions, use the HL

Again, how does that make your count more superior in performance?? You will need to address that issue.