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Thread: 1-12 bet spread scheme but you will always have the advantage

  1. #1


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    Exclamation 1-12 bet spread scheme but you will always have the advantage

    I'd like to share with you the betting scheme I created in comparison to the well known 1-12 Kelley Criterion scheme. With it, you only bet when you have the advantage, so even the true count of 1 is not enough for you (except when the house edge is lower than 0.5%). Both tables apply to the SIX- AND EIGHT-DECK games and the counting systems are HI-LO.

    Here's my table:

    Screenshot_231.png

    And here's the famous Kelley Criterion table:

    Units_Table.png

    As you can see, with the average house edge of 0.5%, Kelley Criterion scheme says you to bet 1 unit even when you're at the disadvantage. Is this one of the camouflage techniques or what? Becasuse I don't see any point of betting when the house has the edge.

    Instead, using my table, you only bet when the true count is 2 or more. I modified the true count to the +6 or higher, however, could someone tell me, why is the limit of the true count is only +5 or higher in the Kelly Criterion table? Shouldn't it continue to the true count of 10 or more? I know it's quite unrealistic to reach the count that high, however, playing the SINGLE-DECK games such situations can occur. It might be because of the risk of ruin, so if the luck isn't on your side, you won't get broke, right?

    What do you think about my strategy? I don't see why it shouldn't work even with the flat betting approach, of course, the profits will be smaller compared to the progressive betting strategies, such as those two above

  2. #2


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    Bravo! You the man.

  3. #3


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Other players will bitch at you for jumping in and out. Casino will nail you as a counter.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful.

    Other players will bitch at you for jumping in and out. Casino will nail you as a counter.
    Whoever voted no on the above-quoted post must have their head up their ass.

  5. #5


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    Hahaha I know it's obvious to you but I'm curious of the reasons why people do that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Other players will bitch at you for jumping in and out. Casino will nail you as a counter.
    I'm playing only at the online live casino blackjack tables so I'm not quite worried about the camouflage.

  6. #6


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    Sir, you’ve figured it out. I salute you.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by LukizKing View Post
    Hahaha I know it's obvious to you but I'm curious of the reasons why people do that.



    I'm playing only at the online live casino blackjack tables so I'm not quite worried about the camouflage.

    Oh, so the software running the game can then identify you even easier than a human can! How nice of you to let them know.

  8. #8


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    oh, so the software running the game can then identify you even easier than a human can!
    citation needed

  9. #9


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    Colin on online live dealer games.
    https://www.blackjackapprenticeship....unting-online/

  10. #10


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    Thank you for the link. From what I've seen, main concerns are the deck penetration and hands/hour.

  11. #11


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    And cheating. And not get paid if they don’t want to. And csm.

    But I like where you’re going with this.

  12. #12


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    And 6:5 or even 1:1 natural payoff.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by LukizKing View Post
    What do you think about my strategy? I don't see why it shouldn't work even with the flat betting approach, of course, the profits will be smaller compared to the progressive betting strategies, such as those two above
    First, you have to overcome how you will avoid the negative counts. Backcounting, spotters, wonging are all options but damn difficult to implement on a continous basis.

    Second, you will only get about 12 rounds at +2 or above in a 6 deck shoe and couple more in a 8 deck shoe. Frequency at count is an important metric that you seem to have overlooked. Other than those you will be doing nothing. About 20% of the shoes will go positive in a playable manner (totally additional subject) and the other 80% will have you chasing your tail.

    Now, if you can only play at true 2 or above then simply flat bet a large enough number (bankroll constrained..RoR) to earn the EV desired. Be aware that most backoffs for counting come from moving your bet with the count.If you are flat betting it removes that exposures.

    Expect much higher variances.

    In summary, your concept has mathematical merit but is impractical unless you have a much broader understanding of the topics I have mentioned. I commend you for taking the initiative to create a betting system but you need to read Black Jack Attack III and Dynamic Blackjack (ebook on this site) for some invaluable guidance.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

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