Losing

[DannyOcean]

Hi all,
I have just broke 160 hours and just went into the red. I am on a 31.5 hr trip losing streak, meaning I have not won any of my last trips. I have lost all of my profit and then small percentage of my bankroll(1/16th), I understand this is not enough playing time still, but as a new card counter I want to ask; do I need to have concern with this swing? I am constantly checking my play on casino verite.
Thank you for taking time

[21forme]

If a shoe game, your N0 is probably 50K hands more or less, so at 100 hph you're only 60% the way there. If you are sure you are playing correctly, keep plugging away

[Jabberwocky]

Hi all,
I have just broke 160 hours and just went into the red. I am on a 31.5 hr trip losing streak, meaning I have not won any of my last trips. I have lost all of my profit and then small percentage of my bankroll(1/16th), I understand this is not enough playing time still, but as a new card counter I want to ask; do I need to have concern with this swing? I am constantly checking my play on casino verite.
Thank you for taking time

You will experience 5-6% drawdowns on a fairly regular basis as a CC. That's why all pros recommend a tiny ROR factor. So either get used to it or focus on other AP moves.

[DannyOcean]

You will experience 5-6% drawdowns on a fairly regular basis as a CC. That's why all pros recommend a tiny ROR factor. So either get used to it or focus on other AP moves.

Thank you, I thought statistically this would be normal. However, it helps to be reaffirmed in the math. What are other examples of AP moves if you don't mind me asking

[ZeeBabar]

An AP mindset is not something you can easily get to (or want to get to, but that’s another discussion). For me, 5+ years and I am not close. Losing hurts. The AP mindset says to trust the math, churn out the hours, don’t fret the losses.

I lost $500 the day before (at a $10 min. Game), went out the next day and before the end of a half (of a 6 deck shoe) had lost $700. I did end up losing $1k. $1500 in a couple of sessions is stressful to me so today I take a break. If I don’t, I am so concerned that things don’t go my way that I start under betting. Instead of playing 2 x $50 at TC2, I find myself going 2 x $25, etc.

I hope one you do take breaks till you forget the losing..

[Jabberwocky]

In blackjack, losing shouldn't hurt but merely be a minor annoyance.
In poker, it should be painful. Can you guess why?

[stopgambling]

Poker is more skill based with less variance vs bj which is more variance with skill lol... Especially you got bluffed ?

[bw929]

DannyOcean,

I did some analysis once for a very good game, something like 2D, 60% penetration, $25 to $500 spread, one spot, DOA, DDAS, 70 rounds per hour.

I found that after 10 hours, and perfect card counting, there was a 40% chance of being negative. After 100 hours, there was still a 25% chance of being negative. After 1,000 hours it was 3%.

Your results are well within the range of normal. (If it makes you feel any better, I'm at 150 hours, and -$1,000. My whole "career" I've fluctuated between +$6,000 and -$9,000.)

If you are checking your counting ability with Casino Verite, and you have it set to a speed that is a little faster than real life, and you feel comfortable in real life, then you are probably okay. (By the way, counting perfectly is not as important as some people claim.)

Have you considered cheating by the house? Not many like to talk about it, and it is hard to prove, b/c BJ variance is so high. I recently stopped playing pitch games, because of some experiences I've had. Something to think about . . .

bw929

[21forme]

Have you considered cheating by the house?

If the game is a shoe game in the US, the likelihood of cheating is smaller than hearing hoof beats and seeing they were coming from a zebra.

If it's on a cruise ship or a third world country, then there's a significant possibility of cheating.

[bw929]

If the game is a shoe game in the US, the likelihood of cheating is smaller than hearing hoof beats and seeing they were coming from a zebra.

If it's on a cruise ship or a third world country, then there's a significant possibility of cheating.

To be clear, I am suspicious about pitch games.

[Jabberwocky]

Just make sure pitch games are dealt from a shoe!

[Ryemo]

If a shoe game, your N0 is probably 50K hands more or less, so at 100 hph you're only 60% the way there. If you are sure you are playing correctly, keep plugging away

I believe the N0 on a typical 6D shoe game would be somewhere around 15K rounds, no? This obviously assumes decent cuts and ok rules.

Example: typical Midwest shoe game... H17, DAS, RSA, 1.2 cut, and a “healthy” spread (1-20 is what I consider healthy for 6D). A game like that would yield an N0 much smaller than 20K IIRC.

And I’m aware that there’s many variables that come into play when it comes to calculating N0. Spread size, ramp, rules, pen, etc. I say 15K because many of the shoe games I’ve played in my career are between 14K and 17K rounds for 1xN0.

[21forme]

Ryemo - I just opened CVCX and checked. Using your parameters, N0 is 37K. Without RSA, it's 44K. 1-12 spread makes it 55K.

I've never seen an N0 below 20K on a 6D shoe game unless you're using Yoshi spreads or PA rules. :-)