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Thread: 8 Deck - 55% Pen. - Betspread-Advise needed

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    8 Deck - 55% Pen. - Betspread-Advise needed

    Hey Guys,

    i havent been around here lately, but a knew question arose - so here it is.

    Since im born and living in Germany, where exactly NO Casino is running blackjack without CSM anymore, cardcounting opportunities are kind of non existent.
    The ones which are beatable (6 Decks, 80% Pen.) are kind of far away in instance of traveling and the belonging costs, I kind of gave up looking for good games around.

    But I still love the game and would like to play (even without winning) somehow, without loosing money - thats the objective.

    Since the last ("good") Online Casino i know has changed its BJ rules from 6 Decks (60% pen.) to 8 Decks (55% Pen.), I am out of reach of any good (kind of beatable) game.

    So here my question (and I know its not a good, rather terrible, frustrating, bankrollneeding and boring task):

    Can somebody calculate for me:

    what betspread I need to use to go even (EV = 0, not +EV) with the online Casino (8 Decks, 55% pen., HouseEdge = 0,5%, using REKO-Count)?
    what betspread I need to use to go even (EV = 0, not +EV) in same Situation as above, but not playing on (converted) truecounts below -1 (wonging)?

    Or does anybody have other ideas for me on how to play this lovely game without loosing money on it?

    I hope you guys can help me out.
    Thankfully,
    Alex

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    I come from the same area and am suffering the same blackjack desert. Welcome to the club! I cannot yet simulate it but guess 1:10 to 1:20 maybe.

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    You need something else to add to your edge. Use your brain. Don't play this game as blackjack, period.

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    Quote Originally Posted by refinery View Post
    You need something else to add to your edge. Use your brain. Don't play this game as blackjack, period.
    You got my vote, but op said he still do it without winning. Poor guy

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    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
    I come from the same area and am suffering the same blackjack desert. Welcome to the club! I cannot yet simulate it but guess 1:10 to 1:20 maybe.
    Thanks for welcoming me And thanks for your guess. Are you playing around at all? Or just on trips in better BJ-areas?


    @refinery & cc12b:
    There is obviously no point in playing that game of blackjack periodly. But there are (sometimes) these evening hours where i'd like to just play 20-40 hands (1-2 hours at online casino speed ).
    Nothing for period, just for stay in training card counting while havin money on the table, having some fun and trying to reduce the houseedge buy using brain. And since I'd like to not loose money on it, there for me can
    be the goal to stay in practise, have some "fun" for at least no money (I know counting 8 decks with 55% pen. isnt that fun). If you guys tell me there is kind of no way to kind of easily go even, then I also might consider to not even
    try it. But that would mean no Blackjack and no counting for me in maybe the next coming years And as I said, practise and some "fun" for no money, as a little hobby for an hour here and there, I would consider, since counting here in the blackjack desert is not my main job.

    I can add this: I kind of got into cardcounting because I love the game and love to try to beat it (or be as good as possible at it), like I think many do. I do not cardcount because I wanna get rich or make a lot of money at it. This is sadly just not possible where I live

    Please keep sharing your opinion

    Thanks,
    Alex
    Last edited by SircOlman; 10-16-2019 at 11:56 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SircOlman View Post
    Thanks for welcoming me And thanks for your guess. Are you playing around at all? Or just on trips in better BJ-areas?


    @refinery & cc12b:
    There is obviously no point in playing that game of blackjack periodly. But there are (sometimes) these evening hours where i'd like to just play 20-40 hands (1-2 hours at online casino speed ).
    Nothing for period, just for stay in training card counting while havin money on the table, having some fun and trying to reduce the houseedge buy using brain. And since I'd like to not loose money on it, there for me can
    be the goal to stay in practise, have some "fun" for at least no money (I know counting 8 decks with 55% pen. isnt that fun). If you guys tell me there is kind of no way to kind of easily go even, then I also might consider to not even
    try it. But that would mean no Blackjack and no counting for me in maybe the next coming years And as I said, practise and some "fun" for no money, as a little hobby for an hour here and there, I would consider, since counting here in the blackjack desert is not my main job.

    I can add this: I kind of got into cardcounting because I love the game and love to try to beat it (or be as good as possible at it), like I think many do. I do not cardcount because I wanna get rich or make a lot of money at it. This is sadly just not possible where I live

    Please keep sharing your opinion

    Thanks,
    Alex
    "If you guys tell me there is kind of no way to kind of easily go even, then I also might consider to not even
    try it."

    Well my vote is what you already know...
    And even if you found a way to win "almost zero" they can just freeze your account and never pay you. So what are you doing? I feel for you, but if you and pinkchip just like studying BJ for fun then more power to you. But if you really want to play, then move somewhere where you can...why not?
    Last edited by Counting_Is_Fun; 10-17-2019 at 12:27 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
    I come from the same area and am suffering the same blackjack desert. Welcome to the club! I cannot yet simulate it but guess 1:10 to 1:20 maybe.
    Why are you giving people advice here when you are just guessing like always?

  8. #8
    Senior Member Goatlife's Avatar
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    shut up counting is fun.

  9. #9
    Senior Member Goatlife's Avatar
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    where are you in germany and how far is the nearest shoe games. I think i know where they are though

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    Quote Originally Posted by smallcapgrowth View Post
    where are you in germany and how far is the nearest shoe games. I think i know where they are though
    I'm livin in the very north. The nearest countable game i know is on a cruiseship that starts like 50 miles away.
    They have following rules with a houseedge around 0,6%:

    - 6 Deck
    - Stand soft 17
    - 80-90% pen
    - European no peak
    - double only 9-11
    - No surrender

    This game, i'd say, would be considerable for counting.

    But there are other things to consider:

    - you have to pay close to 200$ for gettin on it for 2 days
    - they have a minimum bet of 5$ and a max bet of 40$. So betspread is capped at 1:8.
    - with these low bets, getting in the spend costs by counting is quite hard, if even possible.
    - casino is open for about 12h a day
    - BJ-Table is crowded (id say full) for about 8 h a day

    So the way i'd say it: It would be a countable game with lots of fun for me - but the trip would be -EV because of the costs.

    @all who are laughing at these numbers, remember: I'm doin this for fun to beat the game. If I'm up 50$ for 2 days of play I'd be glad to have had a lot of fun and still win some money
    Last edited by SircOlman; 10-17-2019 at 03:45 AM.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun View Post
    Why are you giving people advice here when you are just guessing like always?
    Why don't give you advice if you know any better?

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    Test: my first time posting

  13. #13


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    SircOlman,

    Are you sure this casino uses 55% penetration? I thought that online casinos shuffled after every round.

    The game you described is pretty bad, but you can beat it if you have a very aggressive bet spread. (Do online casinos have "heat"? Will they kick you out for using an aggressive bet spread? I don't know.)

    Here is the simulation I ran.

    8 decks
    55% penetration
    double-down after split allowed
    splitting aces allowed
    split up to four hands allowed
    double down on any first two cards
    play two spots always
    bet ramp is $5, $100, $200, $300, $400, $500, $500, $500, etc.
    for a count of <=0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, etc.
    Hi-Lo count
    I simulated 10 hours at 70 rounds per hour (700 rounds).

    Average profit: $270
    Standard deviation of profit: $4,308

    bw929

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