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Thread: Ace Prediction Advantage

  1. #1


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    Ace Prediction Advantage

    Hello all,

    Don helped me with this a few years ago, but I can't quite recall how to calculate the advantage. (Sorry Don.).

    Suppose I can predict Aces with 16.67% accuracy. Isn't the equation
    (.1667 times .51) plus .8333X = -0.005, assuming a dealer advantage of .5%?

    If so, I end up with x = -.108.

    How do I interpret this number? Does it mean that I am playing with a 10.8% disadvantage whenever I am not attempting to predict an Ace? That doesn't seem right. Maybe I am confusing advantage with EV?

    (And apparently I am playing with an 8.50%, or .1667 times .51, advantage whenever I am attempting to predict an Ace?).

    Thanks!

  2. #2


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    This is just a computation error. If you correctly predict getting an ace on your next hand, you will have a 51 percent advantage of your initial bet on that hand. If you play normally without ace prediction, you will have a 0.5 percent disadvantage (using basic strategy) on that hand.

    In your example, you claim you can do ace prediction in one sixth of your hands, and not predict in five sixths of your hands. 1/6 of 51 percent advantage is 8.5 percent advantage (I prefer computing in percent in order to reduce zero digits). 5/6 of -0.5 percent is approx. -0.4 percent. In summary, this is 8.1 percent overall advantage.
    Last edited by PinkChip; 10-13-2019 at 07:47 AM.

  3. #3


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    Are you taking into account the increased chance that the dealer gets the ace?

  4. #4


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    Thank you, PinkChip and Maestro 123. Maestro 123, that's a good point. Does anyone have an answer? Perhaps my ace prediction advantage that we calculated above takes into account that the dealer also has an increased chance of getting the ace?

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
    This is just a computation error. If you correctly predict getting an ace on your next hand, you will have a 51 percent advantage of your initial bet on that hand. If you play normally without ace prediction, you will have a 0.5 percent disadvantage (using basic strategy) on that hand.

    In your example, you claim you can do ace prediction in one sixth of your hands, and not predict in five sixths of your hands. 1/6 of 51 percent advantage is 8.5 percent advantage (I prefer computing in percent in order to reduce zero digits). 5/6 of -0.5 percent is approx. -0.4 percent. In summary, this is 8.1 percent overall advantage.
    This might be semantics, but.........
    If your first card is an ace, your advantage us 51% or 53%. But..... if you KNOW your first card will be an ace, seems to me that your advantage would be much higher.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    This might be semantics, but.........
    If your first card is an ace, your advantage us 51% or 53%. But..... if you KNOW your first card will be an ace, seems to me that your advantage would be much higher.
    ad 1.) I also remember 52 rather than 51 percent from literature, but this is a minor difference.

    ad 2.) The advantage is still the same 52 percent in relation to your initial wager, but knowing an ace will come, you should of course raise your initial wager, which will increase your overall EV on this next hand (in dollars).
    Last edited by PinkChip; 10-13-2019 at 01:27 PM.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    Thank you, PinkChip and Maestro 123. Maestro 123, that's a good point. Does anyone have an answer? Perhaps my ace prediction advantage that we calculated above takes into account that the dealer also has an increased chance of getting the ace?
    I remember having read in Arnold Snyder's "Shuffle Tracking Cookbook" that if the ace goes to the dealer, you will have a 37 percent disadvantage (not 52 percent particularly because the dealer gets no 3:2 bonus payout on a natural). The question is how likely you or the dealer get the ace, which is difficult to estimate.
    Last edited by PinkChip; 10-13-2019 at 01:29 PM.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    This might be semantics, but.........
    If your first card is an ace, your advantage us 51% or 53%. But..... if you KNOW your first card will be an ace, seems to me that your advantage would be much higher.
    I don't get your point. If your first card is an ace, whether you knew it or not in advance, your EV for that hand is 51%. Obviously, if you know it in advance, you can adjust your bet appropriately.

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