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Thread: Questions About ROR

  1. #1


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    Questions About ROR

    Hi ALL,

    From the ROR calculators : https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/re...hp?do=calcpage

    1) Bankroll = 70 units, Win rate per 100 hands = 12.7, Std. Dev. per 100 hands = 29.8, Simple ROR = 11.78%

    2)
    Bankroll = 70 units, Win rate per 100 hands = 12.7, Std. Dev. per 100 hands = 29.8, Hands played = 50000, Trip ROR = 13.50%

    Both use same parameters and Hand played is 50000 and can be considered as "long run".

    Why simple ROR not same as Trip ROR ? Please help to explain.

    James

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by James989 View Post
    Hi ALL,

    From the ROR calculators : https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/re...hp?do=calcpage

    1) Bankroll = 70 units, Win rate per 100 hands = 12.7, Std. Dev. per 100 hands = 29.8, Simple ROR = 11.78%

    2)
    Bankroll = 70 units, Win rate per 100 hands = 12.7, Std. Dev. per 100 hands = 29.8, Hands played = 50000, Trip ROR = 13.50%

    Both use same parameters and Hand played is 50000 and can be considered as "long run".

    Why simple ROR not same as Trip ROR ? Please help to explain.

    James
    This is proof that no.
    Last edited by Phoebe; 10-11-2019 at 11:19 AM.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Phoebe View Post
    This is proof that no.
    It produced same results even I input 5,000,000(Hand played) into the risk calculator ! Is 5,000,000 hand played still not a "long run" ?

    The simple ROR is 11.78%, it is far from 13.53%(theoretical value for 1 Kelly), WHY ?

  4. #4


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    There is no good answer other than the 70 units is a very small bankroll, and the ROR formulas, while very accurate approximations, are not precisely accurate. There is no logical reason why a trip ROR should ever be greater than a ROR with no time constraint, given all the same parameters.

    Don

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    Sorry.
    I did not see that Trip ROR was higher and I strictly answered the question.

  6. #6
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    My own calculator
    http://blackjack.debourgogne.net/ror (at the end)

    Even 5000 is "long term"

    2019-10-12 09_20_12-Microsoft Excel - RoR.xlsx.png

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    There is no good answer other than the 70 units is a very small bankroll, and the ROR formulas, while very accurate approximations, are not precisely accurate. There is no logical reason why a trip ROR should ever be greater than a ROR with no time constraint, given all the same parameters.

    Don
    Thanks for your explanations

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    Don, as a reminder, I used the precise and complex formulas from BJA3

  9. #9


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    My guess..."No Goal", for those trips you are winning, the more you play, the more trips you will ruin.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Phoebe View Post
    Don, as a reminder, I used the precise and complex formulas from BJA3
    Yes, good, but those are the formulas upon which Norm's calculators are supposed to be based. So, maybe they have to be checked. Note that, where you got 13.5% for the overall ROR with no time constraint, the calculator gave the lower value.

    Don

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