Spread Escalation

**RUMIYODIN** · 10-04-2019, 08:05 AM

I was watching random YouTube videos when I came across an older video from Colin Jones (Blackjack Apprenticeship / Holy Rollers) where he talks about his max bet coming out at TC 1.5.

Generally, many posts and guidelines for peoples bet ramp have either linear or clear bet progression along the lines of:
TC 0 - 1 unit
TC 2 - 2 units
TC 3 - 4 units
TC 4 - 6-8 units

My question I suppose is two parts, first - Was Colin Jones saying he goes from min bet to maximum as soon as TC hits +1.5 without ramping? And second - what does your betting strategy typically look like as far as escalation goes?

**crash** · 10-04-2019, 08:27 AM

You also have to remember that that team had a 100K bank roll it can survive variance.

Bet ramping should be based on heat and longevity needed. Are you in a place for a single session or do you show up everyday to make a few bucks?

**21forme** · 10-04-2019, 08:30 AM

I've seen a number of the bootcamp grads in the field and they do tend to ramp up very quickly. They seem to follow the "take no prisoners" model, i.e., playing very aggressively until backed off and moving on. There's more than one way to skin a cat.

**Ryemo** · 10-04-2019, 07:14 PM

I know guys that go from table min to table max at any edge. Or they’ll max out at a 1% edge (roughly TC 1.5 for HiLo).

If you put heat aside and you’re playing on a very large bankroll, then that’s basically the optimal way to play. You earn way more EV. But that type of play is accompanied with a lot of variance. So you’ll need a large bankroll or a low table max game in order to afford that type of play.

As far as heat goes, I think that style of play will actually reduce casino scrutiny, unless you’re playing a low-max game. Most counters don’t have the bankroll to support 2x1,000 at any edge, so a lot of casinos will dismiss the idea that a player betting like that is actually counting. Or the casino is more willing to gamble with that player.

**Ryemo** · 10-04-2019, 09:23 PM

Edit: I stated that your N0 goes down with that type of spread, but I was incorrect in that assessment. I ran a sim on CVCX and it looks like N0 slightly increases, but EV increases a lot.

**21forme** · 10-05-2019, 05:31 AM

Ryemo - When I first ran across our mutual friend, I ran some sims on his play style. While his EV goes up, his variance goes up much more. For example, for an extra $20/hr EV, SD went up something like $2000/hr. Don't want to get into more details here. Feel free to email me if you want to follow up on this.

**ZeeBabar** · 10-05-2019, 06:04 AM

Along these lines, if your BR is, say $75k, what would things look like playing a red chip table, 6D, just using one ramp, playing $10 min til TC+2, Playing $75 on all TC>2, departing at TC <-2.

Since there are only 2 bet levels, I am assuming less heat. What issues do you see?

**PinkChip** · 10-05-2019, 09:14 AM

Originally Posted by ZeeBabar

Along these lines, if your BR is, say $75k, what would things look like playing a red chip table, 6D, just using one ramp, playing $10 min til TC+2, Playing $75 on all TC>2, departing at TC <-2.

Since there are only 2 bet levels, I am assuming less heat. What issues do you see?

Actually this is no ramp anymore but a jump. No idea how this would affect heat. This reminds me of team play using a small and a big bettor, flat-betting.

**Counting_Is_Fun** · 10-05-2019, 09:45 PM

Originally Posted by ZeeBabar

Along these lines, if your BR is, say $75k, what would things look like playing a red chip table, 6D, just using one ramp, playing $10 min til TC+2, Playing $75 on all TC>2, departing at TC <-2.

Since there are only 2 bet levels, I am assuming less heat. What issues do you see?

If someone had a $75K bankroll and their max bet was $75...well I would ask them why are they even bothering to count cards?

**ZeeBabar** · 10-06-2019, 05:04 AM

Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun

If someone had a $75K bankroll and their max bet was $75...well I would ask them why are they even bothering to count cards?

Which is none of your business but I will answer anyway. It’s like asking a millionaire why he is driving a Toyota (when he could afford a chauffeur driven limo). It’s none of your f$&#ing business!

Grow up, stop thinking that everyone should have the same motivation as you. Some play for recreation, others d
to make money.

**Counting_Is_Fun** · 10-06-2019, 10:34 PM

Originally Posted by ZeeBabar

Which is none of your business but I will answer anyway. It’s like asking a millionaire why he is driving a Toyota (when he could afford a chauffeur driven limo). It’s none of your f$&#ing business!

Grow up, stop thinking that everyone should have the same motivation as you. Some play for recreation, others d
to make money.

Ok yes sir, whatever you say!
Why do you ask questions if you don't want answers? As you say...just ignore the ones you don't like no?

**Stealth** · 10-07-2019, 09:57 AM

Most people are in the databases for moving their bet with the count. If you have a bankroll large enough to flat bet your max bet at any TC+2 or above it will help your longevity but it will materially increase your variance, so tread lightly. Then you better have some "moves" during negative counts to make you look like a gambler.

Also, their is a big difference to the casino when moving from $5 bet to a $50 bet than moving from a $25 bet to a $400 bet. Same spread but beware.

Have fun and happy hunting!

**refinery** · 10-07-2019, 10:29 AM

Originally Posted by Stealth

Most people are in the databases for moving their bet with the count. If you have a bankroll large enough to flat bet your max bet at any TC+2 or above it will help your longevity but it will materially increase your variance, so tread lightly. Then you better have some "moves" during negative counts to make you look like a gambler.

Also, their is a big difference to the casino when moving from $5 bet to a $50 bet than moving from a $25 bet to a $400 bet. Same spread but beware.

Have fun and happy hunting!

Did you mean to write $80?