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Thread: Risk of Ruin

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by James989 View Post
    Hi Don,

    A sidebet, ev=+12.68%(player edge), Var = 8.87, Kelly ratio = 1, ROR = 13.53%, so :-

    Bankroll(units) = 100 * Var/ev = 100*8.87/12.68 = 70 units


    According to my understanding, the probability that I will loss this entire 70 units is 13.53% in the long run.

    How many rounds played will consider as "long run" in this example ?


    James
    This have nothing to do with OP. Learn to post where it matters.

  2. #15


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    I play a bit higher: 6-7%. However I’m quick to resize my bets after a good-sized loss or win. This means my actual chance of going broke is substantially less than my ROR would suggest. I’ve been wanting to sim what my actual odds of going broke are, but haven’t had the time.

    Anyone have a sim or formula that calculates actual chance of going broke, assuming resizing after a given change in bankroll?

  3. #16


    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by James989 View Post
    Hi Don,

    A sidebet, ev=+12.68%(player edge), Var = 8.87, Kelly ratio = 1, ROR = 13.53%, so :-

    Bankroll(units) = 100 * Var/ev = 100*8.87/12.68 = 70 units


    According to my understanding, the probability that I will loss this entire 70 units is 13.53% in the long run.

    How many rounds played will consider as "long run" in this example ?


    James
    James989,

    Your total EV increases linearly with the number of rounds played, n. Your total SD increases as the square root of n.

    Often we use N0 as a measure of the "long run" (though to be fair some use a multiple of N0). N0 is defined as the number of rounds you have to play so that your total EV equals your total SD.

    If we let "e" be the EV/round (so 0.1268 in your case), "s" be the SD/round, and "v" be the variance/round (so 8.87 for you), and recall that v = s^2, we can calculate N0 by equating the total EV to the total SD:

    N0*e = (N0^0.5)*s

    N0^0.5 = s/e

    N0 = (s/e)^2 = v/e^2.

    For your case, N0 = 8.87/0.1268^2 = 551.68...

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  4. #17


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    Thanks for saving me the trouble! :-)

    Don

  5. #18


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    I consider Dog Hand's posts to be amongst the most useful ones, in a kind and competent manner. Lacking practical casino experience, often I'm somewhat unsure about the many facets of the game and formulas I read over thousands of pages over the last 11 years. In this case, I remembered EV be proportional to n and sd proportional to sqrt(n), but not as detailed. Many thanks!

  6. #19


    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
    I consider Dog Hand's posts to be amongst the most useful ones, in a kind and competent manner. Lacking practical casino experience, often I'm somewhat unsure about the many facets of the game and formulas I read over thousands of pages over the last 11 years. In this case, I remembered EV be proportional to n and sd proportional to sqrt(n), but not as detailed. Many thanks!
    DogHand is absolutely legit. His posts are some of the most useful here for calculating many things. I've archived many of his posts.

  7. #20


    1 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
    Lacking practical casino experience
    You joined in 2012. People don't know any better and think they should listen to you. Anything you have to offer is purely theoretical.

    I don't mean to be harsh but people should know.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    James989,

    Your total EV increases linearly with the number of rounds played, n. Your total SD increases as the square root of n.

    Often we use N0 as a measure of the "long run" (though to be fair some use a multiple of N0). N0 is defined as the number of rounds you have to play so that your total EV equals your total SD.

    If we let "e" be the EV/round (so 0.1268 in your case), "s" be the SD/round, and "v" be the variance/round (so 8.87 for you), and recall that v = s^2, we can calculate N0 by equating the total EV to the total SD:

    N0*e = (N0^0.5)*s

    N0^0.5 = s/e

    N0 = (s/e)^2 = v/e^2.

    For your case, N0 = 8.87/0.1268^2 = 551.68...

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

    THANKS, Dog Hand

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by refinery View Post
    DogHand is absolutely legit. His posts are some of the most useful here for calculating many things. I've archived many of his posts.
    Agree. Dog Hand definitely knows his math. And his contributions to this forum are great!

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by refinery View Post
    You joined in 2012. People don't know any better and think they should listen to you. Anything you have to offer is purely theoretical.

    I don't mean to be harsh but people should know.
    Agree. PinkChip you have been studying since 2011, but have no experience really playing the game in casinos?
    But you continue to become a major poster to this forum? Seriously, I am not trying to be a dick but I have to ask after 11 years, why have you not played the game?

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun View Post
    Agree. PinkChip you have been studying since 2011, but have no experience really playing the game in casinos?
    But you continue to become a major poster to this forum? Seriously, I am not trying to be a dick but I have to ask after 11 years, why have you not played the game?
    Because I live in Western Europe, where I encountered very few bj casinos, even fewer bj tables, all of them with CSMs and no shoe or pitch games whereever I came, also during vacations. I have stated this several times so far. So it's difficult and expensive to come to the US and get enough playtime there to get into N0. Anyway I'm here to learn something in the meantime. Many book readings but little casino experience, also many questions regarding practical issues, which sometimes are answered very kindly.

  12. #25


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    its always going to be subjective to now from the end of time but the real question is are you gonna be that 2% that go belly up with your 20k roll that you read about on forums? if i were you id play no less than a 0.0001%risk of ruin be ready for the unholy back offs and flyers and when you get backed off right as you sit down you know you made the right decision taken up the game.

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by refinery View Post
    You joined in 2012. People don't know any better and think they should listen to you. Anything you have to offer is purely theoretical.
    I don't mean to be harsh but people should know.
    I enjoy and appreciate PinkChip's posts. PinkChip's post on this thread about Dog Hand is very positive (and, by the way, accurate). If I remember correctly,, I have been impressed with PinkChip's math acumen as evidenced in prior posts. I don't believe one has to play Blackjack in order to be an asset on this forum, especially if they are clear about how they are not a player currently.

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