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Thread: Calculating Loss Rebate Advantages

  1. #1


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    Calculating Loss Rebate Advantages

    Howdy!

    I've found a single deck game with a house edge of around .5% ... the casino also offers a 35% rebate on losses over 25,000 per trip. I've been reading about Don Johnson and his scheme, but I know he used a handful of other tricks to bump his edge into + EV. If its possible to gain the advantage without counting, and just utilizing a loss rebate?

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ice_Man View Post
    Howdy!

    I've found a single deck game with a house edge of around .5% ... the casino also offers a 35% rebate on losses over 25,000 per trip. I've been reading about Don Johnson and his scheme, but I know he used a handful of other tricks to bump his edge into + EV. If its possible to gain the advantage without counting, and just utilizing a loss rebate?
    FLATBET Bet big, 500 or 1k a hand, and as soon as you hit 25k loss stop your trip. Maybe go to 30k just to make sure you qualify. And make sure they have your loss numbers correct.

    Then, plan your next trip as soon as allowed.

    If i did this i would also quit the trip after winning ~10k

    Im sure there is a mathematical correct answer as to when to quit when in profit. But this is just my gut feeling as i sit here with no mathematical answer.

    How do you collect the 35%?

  3. #3
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    CVData has options for this. But, it takes repetitive analysis. Clearly there is no mathematic algorithm. What matters is the betting.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  4. #4


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    There is got to be some other constraints, right?

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    There is got to be some other constraints, right?
    If there aren't, like a minimum amount of time/hands played. delete this thread now!

  6. #6


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    Simply bet $25K on the first hand. With B.S. splits and DD's, your average wager will be roughly 10% larger, so $27.5K.

    If you win, quit.

    If you lose, quit and collect, on average, $9625, for a loss of $17875.

    If you push, bet $25K once again.

    So, ignoring pushes, you'll win roughly 48% of you "sessions", with an average win of about $28K (more than $27.5 due to BJ's). You'll lose the other 52% of your "sessions" with an average loss after rebate of $17875.

    This means that you'll win an average of $4145 per session.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  7. #7


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    You forgot to mention that beforehand, you have to make your first million outside of blackjack. Otherwise your first session will likely be your last session ;-)

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    If there aren't, like a minimum amount of time/hands played. delete this thread now!
    No time or hand played requirements, just low table limits of $500. Why should I delete the thread? I need help figuring this out...

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    FLATBET Bet big, 500 or 1k a hand, and as soon as you hit 25k loss stop your trip. Maybe go to 30k just to make sure you qualify. And make sure they have your loss numbers correct.

    Then, plan your next trip as soon as allowed.

    If i did this i would also quit the trip after winning ~10k

    Im sure there is a mathematical correct answer as to when to quit when in profit. But this is just my gut feeling as i sit here with no mathematical answer.

    How do you collect the 35%?
    I know James Grosjean wrote a paper in which he discussed optimal win & loss stops for casino rebates. Richard Munchkin mentioned it on GWAE, but I cant find any papers by Grosjean online. I am a little hesitant to discuss the particulars of the rebate as I don't want to burn the play. It is a team play in a way, and I'm looking for players to help me with it.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ice_Man View Post
    I know James Grosjean wrote a paper in which he discussed optimal win & loss stops for casino rebates. Richard Munchkin mentioned it on GWAE, but I cant find any papers by Grosjean online. I am a little hesitant to discuss the particulars of the rebate as I don't want to burn the play. It is a team play in a way, and I'm looking for players to help me with it.
    i can understand your frustration just keep checking and thinking . i am sure you will find the answer .

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ice_Man View Post
    Why should I delete the thread?
    Because this is too good. But it's probably too late now.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Because this is too good. But it's probably too late now.
    If you can find it from these sparse details please call me.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by refinery View Post
    If you can find it from these sparse details please call me.
    I know of a few people who are very resourceful in reading the gambling forums and finding golden geese that shouldn't be discussed online. They fly to those destinations same day.

    P.S. I'm not one of them

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