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Thread: Risk of ruin

  1. #1


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    Risk of ruin

    Hey I have been playing the following game since the begining of the year, I go to the casino 1-2 times a month

    8D, 75%pen
    DAS
    H17

    I only play positive counts using KO:
    IRC 0
    I wong in at RC 23 or more
    25$ table, no spread
    I use the following index plays: 16vT, 15vT, TvT, 12v2, 12v3, TvA, 8v5, 8v6, 9v7

    I am up since I started doing this, however the sample is way to small to draw conclusions. I would add that half my gains are comps. Now what I would like to know is what would be the risk of ruin by doing this with a 2000$ bankroll?

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by seal89 View Post
    Hey I have been playing the following game since the begining of the year, I go to the casino 1-2 times a month

    8D, 75%pen
    DAS
    H17

    I only play positive counts using KO:
    IRC 0
    I wong in at RC 23 or more
    25$ table, no spread
    I use the following index plays: 16vT, 15vT, TvT, 12v2, 12v3, TvA, 8v5, 8v6, 9v7

    I am up since I started doing this, however the sample is way to small to draw conclusions. I would add that half my gains are comps. Now what I would like to know is what would be the risk of ruin by doing this with a 2000$ bankroll?
    If youre coming in and only betting $25 (at good counts) your RoR is very low; however, your hourly win is miniscule, and you will be standing way more than playing.

    Not sure how great comps are for a $25 only bettor...

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    If youre coming in and only betting $25 (at good counts) your RoR is very low; however, your hourly win is miniscule, and you will be standing way more than playing. Not sure how great comps are for a $25 only bettor...
    You'd be surprised. I usually get 15-30$/month in cash offers. I just have to go to the cashier and take the money out. I don't even need to play and I live 5min from my casino so its worth it. Also, the play I do combine with the occasionnal restaurant is just enough to earn enough point to keep my status. I agree with you that I'm not earning a living wage doing this lol, I have been there a time where I did not place a single bet. On the plus side, there is usually 4-6 identical active tables so when a shoe is burned there is usually a table just besides starting a new shoe to back count.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by seal89 View Post
    You'd be surprised. I usually get 15-30$/month in cash offers. I just have to go to the cashier and take the money out. I don't even need to play and I live 5min from my casino so its worth it. Also, the play I do combine with the occasionnal restaurant is just enough to earn enough point to keep my status. I agree with you that I'm not earning a living wage doing this lol, I have been there a time where I did not place a single bet. On the plus side, there is usually 4-6 identical active tables so when a shoe is burned there is usually a table just besides starting a new shoe to back count.
    $15-30/month... yeah not surprised

    I guess this strategy will pay your monthly cable bill.

  5. #5


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    Also, when you go in on days to collect your offers without playing, you lower your ADT (average daily theoretical [loss]), meaning you are hurting future offers by only collecting current offers.

    I dont know how this impacts a player at as low of level as you, but for high stakes players, it can hurt A LOT.

  6. #6
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    Everyone has to start and build a bankroll some place. When starting out any free play I eared went to ploppy slots and I got lucky with it a few times.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    $15-30/month... yeah not surprised

    I guess this strategy will pay your monthly cable bill.
    Well you saw the rules, there is really not much I can do to have EV+ without needing a ridiculous 50k bankroll and getting booted within a few weeks having loss variance. If I had a bigger bankroll I could probably do black chips intead of greens with the same strategy, however I might also get noticed.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by crash View Post
    Everyone has to start and build a bankroll some place. When starting out any free play I eared went to ploppy slots and I got lucky with it a few times.
    OP would be much better playing a nice DD game somehwere on his 2k bankroll to build it. 8D H17 at 75% pen is a terrible game, for any roll. 2k roll is small enough to have a spread that a lot of casinos will allow for a good amount of time, even at DD.

    If trying to build a roll, this (OP way) is not the way to go.

    If just doing this for fun, and to make much less than minimun wage, then this strategy (OP way) is whatever.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by seal89 View Post
    Well you saw the rules, there is really not much I can do to have EV+ without needing a ridiculous 50k bankroll and getting booted within a few weeks having loss variance. If I had a bigger bankroll I could probably do black chips intead of greens with the same strategy, however I might also get noticed.
    Play somewhere else if trying to win money

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    OP would be much better playing a nice DD game somehwere on his 2k bankroll to build it. 8D H17 at 75% pen is a terrible game, for any roll. 2k roll is small enough to have a spread that a lot of casinos will allow for a good amount of time, even at DD.

    If trying to build a roll, this (OP way) is not the way to go.

    If just doing this for fun, and to make much less than minimun wage, then this strategy (OP way) is whatever.
    I agree with this, however I'm in Canada and there is no better game around. In fact the only other casino is 2h away and its the same game, except with a 15$min. So what I am left with is mainly playing for fun.

  11. #11


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    Blueman shouldn't explain everything but he is in fact correct on all points.

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