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Thread: Hit to 15 strategy

  1. #1


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    Hit to 15 strategy

    I'm sure someone has thought of this before but I am not seeing it on here. Also I'm a new user so go easy on me. I've been playing for a few years now and cant help but realize that a lot of the house's edge comes from the players ability to see their up card and make a decision based on that. Wouldnt it make sense to simply forget the dealer exists and ONLY play your hand to the odds (counting aside)? For example, regardless of what the dealer shows, always hit to 15, once at 15+ you stand. This gives you the best odds when hitting because you always hit 14 and below and you arent psyched out by the dealers card. Does this strategy not make more sense than normal basic strategy?

  2. #2


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    But the odds of your play _do_ depend on the dealer upcard. The optimal strategy when not counting does take into account the dealer upcard and is called Basic Strategy. It also considers the effect of doubling and splitting, surrender etc. You should have a look at a Basic Strategy table first.
    Last edited by PinkChip; 09-22-2019 at 04:46 AM.

  3. #3


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    I have studied basic strategy and that's what I currently use. I'm essentially just questioning a limited no bust strategy where you always hit 14 and under regardless of the dealer up card because you have greater odds of hitting those numbers and not busting. You're basically just playing the odds against busting instead of trying to predict what the dealer is going to make which is what basic strategy does.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by rboukzam View Post
    Wouldnt it make sense to simply forget the dealer exists and ONLY play your hand to the odds (counting aside)?
    Not at all. The math of the game has been figured out and settled decades ago. There are no secrets in how to play the game.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by rboukzam View Post
    I have studied basic strategy and that's what I currently use. I'm essentially just questioning a limited no bust strategy where you always hit 14 and under regardless of the dealer up card because you have greater odds of hitting those numbers and not busting. You're basically just playing the odds against busting instead of trying to predict what the dealer is going to make which is what basic strategy does.
    We understand what you're saying, and we're telling you that it makes no sense. No need to explain your rationale more than once. The logic is flawed, and if you play your way, instead of following basic strategy, you will lose a great deal more.

    Don

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by rboukzam View Post
    You're basically just playing the odds against busting instead of trying to predict what the dealer is going to make which is what basic strategy does.
    You overlook that Basic Strategy does _not only_ take into account the dealer upcard but _also_ the player's odds of busting (and more details). Therefore Basic Strategy is clearly superior to a pure non-bust strategy.

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