See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 13 of 26

Thread: Standard Deviation

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Standard Deviation

    When figuring out a trip bankroll, should I consider 2SD or 1 SD?
    When playing, is the goal to stay within 1 SD?

  2. #2


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I'd go with 3SD - nothing worse than running out of money during a good shoe.

    The goal is to play optimally and not sweat the results.

  3. #3


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I'd just use CVCX and make it so ROR is < 1%

  4. #4


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    I'd just use CVCX and make it so ROR is < 1%
    +1

  5. #5


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    How big or important is your trip? Let's say you live in Vegas and take a trip a day trip to Laughlin (for whatever f***ed up reason). It's a 1.5 hour drive and not a big deal if you bust your trip BR. You're planning on what, playing 6 hours? Okay, you lose out on a few hours if you go busto -- big whoop. OTOH, if you're going on a big road trip, flying across the country, etc. and planning on putting in 50 to 100+ hours, then yeah, busting out is going to cost you a whole lot more (than a day trip).

    I would say bring as much as you're comfortable carrying. There are of course downsides to carrying "too much" (getting robbed by some patron or getting pulled over / TSA / etc.). Also remember that, at least for me, trips don't usually go as planned -- maybe there's a promotion you didn't initially know about and you need more money....or you planned on a $500 max bet but now think you can play to a $1k max bet...or you're getting in a bunch of heat-free hours but you're running bad (so you decide to extend the trip, but that's tough to do if you're running out of COH).

    Also, if you bring a lot and win a lot and you're on the positive side of the curve, now you have a whooole bunch of cash you gotta travel back home with (or at least you gotta get it in a bank account, SDB, etc.). A good problem to have, but still a problem.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  6. #6


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I learned much from this forum and the ridicule some heaped on me. In the past, I would take $5k on a 4 day trip to Las Vegas and on a couple of occasions, I quit after I had lost about $3.4k either because I felt I had lost too much for one trip or just got sick of the losing sessions.

    Last month, I took $10.5k. After the first day, I was down $2.5k, lost another $1.8k the second day and kept playing. I made most of my money back, the trip loss was under $400.

    I agree that that more money gives us confidence.

  7. #7


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Good for you, Zee!

  8. #8


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Zee I agree, and a little confidence can really help us when we are losing. And for most players taking at least 10k to Vegas isn't that big of a deal is it?

  9. #9


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I tried a road trip, it was annoying that lots of unexpected things happen.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Jabberwocky's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Agharta
    Posts
    1,868


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Faye View Post
    I tried a road trip, it was annoying that lots of unexpected things happen.
    Would you care to elaborate?

  11. #11


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    My problem with road trips is a tendency to question myself if it starts out bad. For instance, I plan on a 6 day trip with say $10k. After a 6 hour drive to another town with 3-4 casinos, I start out bad, lose $2-$3k the first night. I ask “what the fx$&k I am doing in this awful motel, next morning I drive back. Or, first night I get up $2-3k, next morning I think of just going home. What the f@#$k am I doing running around, looking at another drive that takes me further away from home, my bed, my family? I already won enough.

    Plane trips force me to stick it out cause the cost of last minute flight change to return home early is expensive.

  12. #12


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    My problem with road trips is a tendency to question myself if it starts out bad. For instance, I plan on a 6 day trip with say $10k. After a 6 hour drive to another town with 3-4 casinos, I start out bad, lose $2-$3k the first night. I ask “what the fx$&k I am doing in this awful motel, next morning I drive back. Or, first night I get up $2-3k, next morning I think of just going home. What the f@#$k am I doing running around, looking at another drive that takes me further away from home, my bed, my family? I already won enough.
    ZeeBabar, you have been doing this for at least five years now and still doing the same things without a logical game plan. That above quote of yours is like you just started playing the game two days ago. Just play at a level of play that you will stop worrying about all the stupid nonsense of a single session result. Including debating with yourself if you should double or resplit based on your results of the last twenty minutes of play. Something I do not understand please explain the following question. If your intent is to leave after being up or down two to three K why bring 10K on that trip? Whatever your playing bank is, is a meaningless number "also dangerous to you by over betting" if you are not truly committed to making it available to yourself, which is very apparent. At least be truthful with yourself.

    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Plane trips force me to stick it out cause the cost of last minute flight change to return home early is expensive.
    Insanity!
    Last edited by BoSox; 09-12-2019 at 10:07 AM.

  13. #13


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Bosox, that is the difference between a real pro and people like me. I let the individual session affect me. I am still trying. It’s why I have the utmost respect for some of you. This is not easy. Your response and those of others, often ridiculing me also helps.

    For example, if I lose 3 max nets in a row, I often lower my bet cause I might be in a hole (bad, I know but it’s usually an act of loss prevention). The other day, playing heads up, playing 2 hands at $10 minimum table, after losing 3 rounds of 2 x $90 (my max bet), the shoe did not end, the TC was still +6 with about a deck to go. Maybe it’s lessons I learned here but I stopped another ploppy from joining the table “Mind if I play this last round by myself?”, cashed $300, asked for Greens, put 2 x $150 while looking at the pit guy standing at the table and said “it’s all the money I have, if I lose, you won’t see me in this “damned casino, ever” (acting like I am on tilt), looked at dealer, told him “no double downs or splits please” (she is feeling sorry for me) and I ended up getting a BJ on both hands! Dealer had a ten up and I said “I want even money” (course I knew you can’t get insurance on a ten up). I colored up and left having recovered most of my losses that sessions. Got paid for the BJ. Never received BJ on both hands like that before.

    I know that next time I might not do it, take the risk of losing that much over 4-5 rounds and 3 minutes. It don’t come easy.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. +3SD (standard deviation)
    By ferenc11 in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 03-21-2017, 06:52 AM
  2. Please explain standard deviation
    By JacksAces in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 09-29-2014, 10:06 PM
  3. MJ: Standard Deviation
    By MJ in forum Blackjack Main
    Replies: 29
    Last Post: 03-09-2005, 04:30 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.