Dice Influence?

[Bigdaddy]

Time to talk about this again. I just finished attending the Golden Touch craps seminar in Vegas. Here's my evaluation...I went in as a sceptic and came out less skeptical. No way of course to perform any statistically significant trials, but I'll say this...when the advanced players and instructors were throwing, I've never seen such a high concentration of hard ways. Maybe chance, but I don't think so. The dice appear to be rolling on axis and dying pretty tame after glancing the back wall. Sure they throw 7s, but if you can cut that number down just a bit, you have a beatable game.Bottom line - it takes a huge commitment of practice to be able to do what they instruct you to do. But some are willing and able. The key is to find these animals at the craps table and ride that train.

[refinery]

If I could control dice in any way, you couldn't drag me away from the table for a second to teach a bunch of stupid people in a class.

[Eye of the Eagle]

Time to talk about this again. I just finished attending the Golden Touch craps seminar in Vegas. Here's my evaluation...I went in as a sceptic and came out less skeptical. No way of course to perform any statistically significant trials, but I'll say this...when the advanced players and instructors were throwing, I've never seen such a high concentration of hard ways. Maybe chance, but I don't think so. The dice appear to be rolling on axis and dying pretty tame after glancing the back wall. Sure they throw 7s, but if you can cut that number down just a bit, you have a beatable game.Bottom line - it takes a huge commitment of practice to be able to do what they instruct you to do. But some are willing and able. The key is to find these animals at the craps table and ride that train.

Did you check the dice? Loaded?

[CountinCanadian]

Isn't it difficult to get away with in the casino even if you can pull it off?

[Jabberwocky]

Isn't it difficult to get away with in the casino even if you can pull it off?

As in blackjack, you need to move around a lot.

[ummagumma]

If I could control dice in any way, you couldn't drag me away from the table for a second to teach a bunch of stupid people in a class.

You're joking of course. At $1600 a pop these 'stupid people' are giving you cash with no downside. You'd be the 'stupid' one to turn that down.

[refinery]

You're joking of course. At $1600 a pop these 'stupid people' are giving you cash with no downside. You'd be the 'stupid' one to turn that down.

I've taught a lot of classes for a lot of money over the years. I'd rather have my teeth pulled. Much praise to anyone who actually wants to spend their time that way. If I could control dice you'd never drag me away from the table.

$1600 per person doesn't reflect the true hourly income from such an arrangement, including opportunity cost.

[BankerCA]

It is my belief there are a few dozen people world wide that can produce meaningful results.

No way of course to perform any statistically significant trials

I actually think this can be done...

If Golden Touch Craps or any other program truly believed this works, it really wouldn't be that expensive to conduct significant trials.

You would need a netrual moderator, someone like Michael Shackleford (Wizard of odds) who is a skeptic but doesn't rule out that it can be done. He could then agree to publish the results.
To speed things up have the dice set, and have someone collecting the dice after the throw.
I would say on the conservative side 500 throws per hour/per shooter is probable.
Multiple tables with multiple shooters could be set up, with overhead cameras.

I'm not sure what would be considered a "Statistically significant " number of trials. If you were to pay your instructors $30 per hour, you can get 1 MILLION throws for $60,000. Even if the Million throws is not enough to be statistically significant, I think it is enough to convince a fair number of people to drop good money on this class. At $1600 per class, all they need is 38 folks to be on board.


There is no question, a statistically significant number of trials that produce a meaningful Rolls to seven ratio will create a significant return on investment for Golden Touch.

[RS]

Anytime I've heard of anyone EVER talk about dice influence....well, I'm not impressed, at all. They're open about what they do, so it's not a "keeping secrets" thing. For example, ask them with a given set (say the "V's 3 set" or w/e), what is the distribution of each of their rolls? EG: On random/fair dice, it'll be 1-in-36 they roll a 2, 2-in-36 they roll 3....6-in-36 they roll a 7....etc. They don't seem to be able to grasp this very simple concept which is essentially THE MOST IMPORTANT DAMN THING TO DICE CONTROL. I'd expect someone to be able to say, "Using this set, I should roll a 2 every __ rolls, a 3 every __ rolls....etc."

Next, they can never put a number on their EV or even give an estimate. I acknowledge in things like this it could be difficult to determine your precise EV, but for f***s sake, you should at least be able to say, "At minimum, my EV is ____. At the most it's ____." But no, they can never do this. Instead, they say it depends on how many people are at the table, what kind of table, the limits, etc. etc... OKAY, then fine, make up some scenario for me and give me the EV for that -- again, nope, no can do!

Since they don't know what their EV is, and very likely they don't even know wtf EV is, there's no way in hell they can figure out or estimate their ROR, N0, or any other metrics like that. Again, I realize that not all AP is black-and-white where you can nail down some precise figure, as I've played plenty of things like that, but I've always been able to figure out a rough estimate of EV, N0, best/worst case scenarios, etc. Bringing up this kind of stuff to these people, they look at you like you have 3 heads or something. "But my Seven-to-Rolls-Ratio is 8.5, that's all that matters! Durr!"

I don't know how often this comes up, but it seems a fair amount also have some BS voodoo beliefs. They'll say stuff about some dumbass betting system (which mirrors martingale, but not exactly)...and pretend that "betting strategy" means anything other than jack shit. And no, I'm not talking about cases (and this would make sense) where someone might say, "If I set the point to #5, then I bet $X on the 6, $Y on the 8, and $Z on the 9....if the point is 4, then I bet _______ etc." No, they actually do crap like decreasing their bets after a win to "lock in profit" or maybe increase after a loss (like martingale) or just have a win-goal for the session.

It's also always people who are betting table minimum who pretend they can dice control. They fall back on, "I'm not greedy, I do it for fun" or some shit. So you're telling me, that you spent (likely) tens of hours (when it should be several hundreds of hours) perfecting your craft in dice influencing, just so you can go have fun? No sane person does that. There's a craps table at damn near every casino and the sky is the limit, yet you've been playing $5 mins at some podunk boulder strip casino for the last 7 years? Mhmmmm...


I believe there may be a small set of VERY FEW PEOPLE who can actually do this and know what they're doing (no one reading this falls into that category). I'm not saying they exist, but I think it's at least possible. I think it's at least theoretically possible to influence dice BUT with many caveats -- EG: It's not something that 99.999% of people can do. Even for the 0.01% or w/e of people who could physically do it (natural skill with soft fingers, probably dexterity or something, all that) would also have to be super patient, knowledgeable, and be committed to spending an incredible amount of time to do it. Most people that would even posses such natural talent, just like most people in the world, wouldn't even know about dice influencing or decide to get into it.



As far as how many rolls you need to do for it to be statistically significant...it's not just the number of rolls that matters, but how far away the rolls' results are from expectation. For example, if someone says they can influence a coin flip at 60/40, it's not going to take hundreds of thousands of flips before you can figure out, "Ya, this guy's good." If someone says they can influence it at 50.05/49.95, then yeah, that's going to take a whole hell of a lot of flips to determine the results are (likely) due to skill rather than sheer luck.

[ummagumma]

I've taught a lot of classes for a lot of money over the years. I'd rather have my teeth pulled. Much praise to anyone who actually wants to spend their time that way. If I could control dice you'd never drag me away from the table.

$1600 per person doesn't reflect the true hourly income from such an arrangement, including opportunity cost.

But surely it depends on how well you can control the dice. I'm positive you'd never get the same return from control compared to the risk free return by holding a class. Obviously you've been there, done that as far as classes are concerned so why is it like having your teeth pulled ? I can't see the downside myself.

[Jabberwocky]

Casino bait. If dice setting really worked, the casinos would make a simple change. throw the dice from a cup. In bj they added penetration and more decks. At roulette they turn the displays off and on and off.

Since the casinos don't have the dice flung from a cup, that's proof dice influence doesn't work. Hey! I never thought of that!

[BankerCA]

Next, they can never put a number on their EV or even give an estimate.

Agreed. Most of them have no clue what they are doing.

Here are the advantages and EV's:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/4/

[BankerCA]

I believe there may be a small set of VERY FEW PEOPLE who can actually do this and know what they're doing (no one reading this falls into that category).

Are you sure?