See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 13 of 37

Thread: Losing Streak

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Losing Streak

    I'm assessing my play and in 43 hours I am around my ev that I ran in simulations. However, the last 22 hours I have lost money in a big swing while playing in good games with abnormally high tcs. I have played good games and do not think my play is any different or lacking. Is this normal in a losing streak? I would lose with a 19 in a tc 3 with dealer hitting twice, dealer hit 21 3 consecutive hands in a tc 4 (insurance was not offered), and losing consecutive hands when I had edge for just a few examples. I would switch from 1 hand to 2 hands when tc was 2 and stop if it fell below tc1. Any negative rc I played the minimum, even though my spread is based on green chips. Any advice or support would be appreciated! Thank you

    Danny Ocean
    [email protected]

  2. #2


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Just remember that at TC +3, that just means there are 3 more high cards than low cards (per deck remaining). That small difference in deck composition means practically nothing as far as how the hands are going to play out. It shifts the edge from -0.5% to +1% (roughly).

    Being at EV after 43 hours is basically just coincidental. Depending on the game you're playing (N0), it's going to generally take somewhere in the 100-200 hour mark before being at EV is less than coincidence. But even then (once you've hit N0 # of rounds/hours), then the variance in your likely results is anywhere between breaking even and being at 2 times your EV. You need many many more hours before your actual results and EV are (very) likely to be close to each other. We play the game for the long run, not for just a few hours. But it's good to analyze your play and results to look to see if anything is possibly awry. Just don't put too much emphasis in wins or losses....oh, and probably should study up on this type of stuff to learn more about the game and what kind of results you can expect and all that fun stuff.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  3. #3


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Yes, it's normal. I had lunch recently with 2 APs who are on losing streaks. One is down on 100 hours of play and the other with 500 hours of play! They are both good players. BJ is a volatile game.

  4. #4


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Your overall edge relative to action is usually around 1% in blackjack (with a high spread and a great game it can get as high as 2%). But we've all had massive winning sessions where it seems you just can't lose. That's normal, but so is the opposite, getting your head bashed on. A 1% edge leaves plenty of room for variance, which is why it is important practice rational bankroll management and be prepared mentally for negative variance.

  5. #5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    Just remember that at TC +3, that just means there are 3 more high cards than low cards (per deck remaining). That small difference in deck composition means practically nothing as far as how the hands are going to play out. It shifts the edge from -0.5% to +1% (roughly).

    Being at EV after 43 hours is basically just coincidental. Depending on the game you're playing (N0), it's going to generally take somewhere in the 100-200 hour mark before being at EV is less than coincidence. But even then (once you've hit N0 # of rounds/hours), then the variance in your likely results is anywhere between breaking even and being at 2 times your EV. You need many many more hours before your actual results and EV are (very) likely to be close to each other. We play the game for the long run, not for just a few hours. But it's good to analyze your play and results to look to see if anything is possibly awry. Just don't put too much emphasis in wins or losses....oh, and probably should study up on this type of stuff to learn more about the game and what kind of results you can expect and all that fun stuff.
    Thank you for the advice! I have studied up and continue to do so. I knew this was possible but this is the only platform I have been able to find to check my information with real experience. Do you have more advice on how I can better my network with other ap? Thank you again!

  6. #6


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Yes, it's normal. I had lunch recently with 2 APs who are on losing streaks. One is down on 100 hours of play and the other with 500 hours of play! They are both good players. BJ is a volatile game.
    Do you have advice on how to continue to meet other ap players and network? It is crazy to think to be down with that many hours, Networking with people has to help with the losses!

  7. #7


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    Your overall edge relative to action is usually around 1% in blackjack (with a high spread and a great game it can get as high as 2%). But we've all had massive winning sessions where it seems you just can't lose. That's normal, but so is the opposite, getting your head bashed on. A 1% edge leaves plenty of room for variance, which is why it is important practice rational bankroll management and be prepared mentally for negative variance.
    What are good places or tips to follow up on bankroll management? I do not have my bankroll liquid, but instead in a fund to earn small interest. I have access to withdraw for session trips. I do not know much outside of doing this. Thanks!

  8. #8


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DannyOcean View Post
    Do you have advice on how to continue to meet other ap players and network? It is crazy to think to be down with that many hours, Networking with people has to help with the losses!
    For me it was a combination of people on the forums and running into APs in casinos who were willing to talk (outside, of course).

  9. #9


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DannyOcean View Post
    I would lose with a 19 in a tc 3 with dealer hitting twice, dealer hit 21 3 consecutive hands in a tc 4 (insurance was not offered), and losing consecutive hands when I had edge for just a few examples. I would switch from 1 hand to 2 hands when tc was 2 and stop if it fell below tc1.
    The difference between winning and losing are subtle.

    Assuming 100 Hands per hour...
    In Theory the only difference between playing a game with a house advantage of 1% and a player advantage of 1% is ONLY one hand out of 100 hands. The other 99 hands remain the same. *** A SINGLE HAND shifts from a LOSING hand to a WINNING hand***

    The only difference between a break even game and a 1% player advantage is a single hand that was a push is now a win. The other 99 hands remain the same.
    Assuming 10k in action over 1 hour of play, playing a break even game you still have your 10k (break even). If that "push" is turned into a "win" you now have 10.1k (1% edge)

    A 100 hour losing streak in theory can be justified as the difference between losing and winning on just 100 hands. (100 hands out of 10,000 are the deciding difference)
    This is why dealer errors are crucial. A push that is paid is great, and a loss that is paid is even better.

    If the dealer takes your winning bet (instead of paying it), just once every 2 hours, your 1% advantage is gone and you are playing a break even game.
    Last edited by BankerCA; 08-25-2019 at 09:36 PM.

  10. #10


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DannyOcean View Post
    However, the last 22 hours I have lost money in a big swing while playing in good games with abnormally high tcs.
    Too small a sample to be meaningful.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  11. #11


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DannyOcean View Post
    Thank you for the advice! I have studied up and continue to do so. I knew this was possible but this is the only platform I have been able to find to check my information with real experience. Do you have more advice on how I can better my network with other ap? Thank you again!
    Quote Originally Posted by DannyOcean View Post
    What are good places or tips to follow up on bankroll management? I do not have my bankroll liquid, but instead in a fund to earn small interest. I have access to withdraw for session trips. I do not know much outside of doing this. Thanks!
    As far as networking, IMO just read what a lot of different people have to say. Engage in conversation and whatnot. There is also quite a bit of crossover between this forum and other blackjack / AP / gambling forums. There's a discord server that Ryemo (member here) runs -- mostly just people talking about random day to day stuff, but if people have questions or a discussion then there's obviously real BJ discussion happening.

    Also, remember that everyone is in a different boat. Different people have different goals, have different bankrolls, play different games, etc. etc. So one person giving advice may or may not be applicable to you. The guy who plays every now and then for the entertainment but wants to make a small profit, comps, etc. is going to go about it (and thus good advice to him may differ) than the serious pro who does this for a living play huge stakes.


    For bankroll management, I'm sure series of books could be written on just that subject. I'm too tired to write out a better response, but I'd say... Look up kelly criterion and learn about that (at least know what it is and how betting full, half, quarter kelly are different and effects of doing that). If you don't have it already, buy CVCX and run sims on it, then mess around with the settings to see what effects what. EG: Change the spread/ramp and see how that effects EV, N0, and variance. Or change # of hours played. Or differing rules, penetration, risk size, etc. etc. That's probably the best thing to do, so you can look at a certain type of game you'd play and see after 100 hours of playing it, what your range of results could likely be...and from there deciding if that's something you really want to pursue or if there's a change you need to make to the game to make it more attractive and worth playing. As far as physical BR management, lots of stuff you can do like leave it in a bank or safe deposit box, keep it in cash at home or somewhere accessible, investing it in stocks/bonds/etc., putting it in precious metals or cryptocurrency, investing in a business / real estate, or fund a new AP's bankroll, and I'm sure a bunch of other stuff I'm not thinking of. The other side of it is how much COH you need to play for a reasonable amount of time before potentially having to take money out of your investments if you're on a big losing streak...but that kinda goes back to what are you goals, if your goal is to increase your bankroll as quickly as possible then you probably don't want to have too much tied up in investments (at least if your BR is relatively small)....but if your BR is already really big and you only need (for example) $50k cash to be able to survive most downswings before recovering, then you probably want to invest much of it into whatever you think is a good investment.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  12. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Location
    formerly notFromTheMidWest
    Posts
    38


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Variance is a tragic realty. I was on my way to booking a great week but lost half of the week back in a single session the last day of the week.

  13. #13


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DannyOcean View Post
    I'm assessing my play and in 43 hours I am around my ev that I ran in simulations. However, the last 22 hours I have lost money in a big swing while playing in good games with abnormally high tcs. I have played good games and do not think my play is any different or lacking. Is this normal in a losing streak? I would lose with a 19 in a tc 3 with dealer hitting twice, dealer hit 21 3 consecutive hands in a tc 4 (insurance was not offered), and losing consecutive hands when I had edge for just a few examples. I would switch from 1 hand to 2 hands when tc was 2 and stop if it fell below tc1. Any negative rc I played the minimum, even though my spread is based on green chips. Any advice or support would be appreciated! Thank you

    Danny Ocean
    [email protected]

    Ignore it. I was at first getting excited after decent wins and getting flustered after booked losses. Then I realized it's a big waste of emotional energy. Look at the whole game as just temporary depositing money back and forth with the house, knowing over the long term you'll be skimming some betting units from these back and forth temporary deposits. This has been my new mental outlook, but I guess the real test comes when I experience a 60% drop in bankroll.

    I also wanted to share the worse beatings I've taken were the rare times I had extreme TC's of say +15 or so at the end of the shoe. When this happens that big edge you see on paper in this scenario never materialized. This means all those 10's are behind the cut. Try to track that slug behind the cut during the shuffle procedure. Don't bet big when first practicing this. I've been trying hard to master this, but I've yet to hit that money slug when I thought I would. I really think this skill is what separates the big boy AP's versus juniors in training like myself.

    I bet if you look back at your best sessions you'll notice it was when you were getting TC's fluctuating between +10 and +6 not +18 or whatever (An extremely high TC number for your count method might be different than mine, but you should get the basic idea). This has been my experience anyway.
    Last edited by UncleChoo; 08-26-2019 at 07:14 AM.

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Losing streak - PLEASE HELP
    By mickeymouse in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 41
    Last Post: 04-05-2018, 05:12 AM
  2. What to do during losing streak?
    By bjisdirty in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 39
    Last Post: 09-16-2017, 09:12 AM
  3. Replies: 46
    Last Post: 03-07-2017, 03:01 PM
  4. Losing streak rant - PART TEN - or rather, losing SESSION rant
    By mickeymouse in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 18
    Last Post: 11-03-2015, 06:24 AM
  5. What is a losing streak
    By Avincow in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 09-09-2015, 09:32 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.