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Thread: Losing Streak

  1. #1


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    Losing Streak

    I'm assessing my play and in 43 hours I am around my ev that I ran in simulations. However, the last 22 hours I have lost money in a big swing while playing in good games with abnormally high tcs. I have played good games and do not think my play is any different or lacking. Is this normal in a losing streak? I would lose with a 19 in a tc 3 with dealer hitting twice, dealer hit 21 3 consecutive hands in a tc 4 (insurance was not offered), and losing consecutive hands when I had edge for just a few examples. I would switch from 1 hand to 2 hands when tc was 2 and stop if it fell below tc1. Any negative rc I played the minimum, even though my spread is based on green chips. Any advice or support would be appreciated! Thank you

    Danny Ocean
    [email protected]

  2. #2


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    Just remember that at TC +3, that just means there are 3 more high cards than low cards (per deck remaining). That small difference in deck composition means practically nothing as far as how the hands are going to play out. It shifts the edge from -0.5% to +1% (roughly).

    Being at EV after 43 hours is basically just coincidental. Depending on the game you're playing (N0), it's going to generally take somewhere in the 100-200 hour mark before being at EV is less than coincidence. But even then (once you've hit N0 # of rounds/hours), then the variance in your likely results is anywhere between breaking even and being at 2 times your EV. You need many many more hours before your actual results and EV are (very) likely to be close to each other. We play the game for the long run, not for just a few hours. But it's good to analyze your play and results to look to see if anything is possibly awry. Just don't put too much emphasis in wins or losses....oh, and probably should study up on this type of stuff to learn more about the game and what kind of results you can expect and all that fun stuff.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  3. #3


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    Yes, it's normal. I had lunch recently with 2 APs who are on losing streaks. One is down on 100 hours of play and the other with 500 hours of play! They are both good players. BJ is a volatile game.

  4. #4


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    Your overall edge relative to action is usually around 1% in blackjack (with a high spread and a great game it can get as high as 2%). But we've all had massive winning sessions where it seems you just can't lose. That's normal, but so is the opposite, getting your head bashed on. A 1% edge leaves plenty of room for variance, which is why it is important practice rational bankroll management and be prepared mentally for negative variance.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    Just remember that at TC +3, that just means there are 3 more high cards than low cards (per deck remaining). That small difference in deck composition means practically nothing as far as how the hands are going to play out. It shifts the edge from -0.5% to +1% (roughly).

    Being at EV after 43 hours is basically just coincidental. Depending on the game you're playing (N0), it's going to generally take somewhere in the 100-200 hour mark before being at EV is less than coincidence. But even then (once you've hit N0 # of rounds/hours), then the variance in your likely results is anywhere between breaking even and being at 2 times your EV. You need many many more hours before your actual results and EV are (very) likely to be close to each other. We play the game for the long run, not for just a few hours. But it's good to analyze your play and results to look to see if anything is possibly awry. Just don't put too much emphasis in wins or losses....oh, and probably should study up on this type of stuff to learn more about the game and what kind of results you can expect and all that fun stuff.
    Thank you for the advice! I have studied up and continue to do so. I knew this was possible but this is the only platform I have been able to find to check my information with real experience. Do you have more advice on how I can better my network with other ap? Thank you again!

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Yes, it's normal. I had lunch recently with 2 APs who are on losing streaks. One is down on 100 hours of play and the other with 500 hours of play! They are both good players. BJ is a volatile game.
    Do you have advice on how to continue to meet other ap players and network? It is crazy to think to be down with that many hours, Networking with people has to help with the losses!

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    Your overall edge relative to action is usually around 1% in blackjack (with a high spread and a great game it can get as high as 2%). But we've all had massive winning sessions where it seems you just can't lose. That's normal, but so is the opposite, getting your head bashed on. A 1% edge leaves plenty of room for variance, which is why it is important practice rational bankroll management and be prepared mentally for negative variance.
    What are good places or tips to follow up on bankroll management? I do not have my bankroll liquid, but instead in a fund to earn small interest. I have access to withdraw for session trips. I do not know much outside of doing this. Thanks!

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by DannyOcean View Post
    Do you have advice on how to continue to meet other ap players and network? It is crazy to think to be down with that many hours, Networking with people has to help with the losses!
    For me it was a combination of people on the forums and running into APs in casinos who were willing to talk (outside, of course).

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by DannyOcean View Post
    I would lose with a 19 in a tc 3 with dealer hitting twice, dealer hit 21 3 consecutive hands in a tc 4 (insurance was not offered), and losing consecutive hands when I had edge for just a few examples. I would switch from 1 hand to 2 hands when tc was 2 and stop if it fell below tc1.
    The difference between winning and losing are subtle.

    Assuming 100 Hands per hour...
    In Theory the only difference between playing a game with a house advantage of 1% and a player advantage of 1% is ONLY one hand out of 100 hands. The other 99 hands remain the same. *** A SINGLE HAND shifts from a LOSING hand to a WINNING hand***

    The only difference between a break even game and a 1% player advantage is a single hand that was a push is now a win. The other 99 hands remain the same.
    Assuming 10k in action over 1 hour of play, playing a break even game you still have your 10k (break even). If that "push" is turned into a "win" you now have 10.1k (1% edge)

    A 100 hour losing streak in theory can be justified as the difference between losing and winning on just 100 hands. (100 hands out of 10,000 are the deciding difference)
    This is why dealer errors are crucial. A push that is paid is great, and a loss that is paid is even better.

    If the dealer takes your winning bet (instead of paying it), just once every 2 hours, your 1% advantage is gone and you are playing a break even game.
    Last edited by BankerCA; 08-25-2019 at 09:36 PM.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by DannyOcean View Post
    However, the last 22 hours I have lost money in a big swing while playing in good games with abnormally high tcs.
    Too small a sample to be meaningful.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

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